407 Locust St · Waterloo, IA 50701

$84,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,272 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 218 Days on market

Built 1900 7,000 sqft lot $66/sqft · 52% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.5/30.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom house with approximately 1,272 square feet of living space. It features beautiful woodwork, built-in bookshelves in the dining room/library area, and includes a stove, refrigerator, washer, and dryer. You'll love the bathroom with all new fixtures, new windows, and new paint and flooring throughout. Call for an easy showing today!

Key facts

• 7,000 sq ft lot
• Built 1900
• Listed 217 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $84k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $248 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $84k).
• Recommended offer: $74k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 4.2% in Waterloo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#74 in IA, #1,589 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F, employment D-.
• Waterloo Community School District (urban): math 50% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #276 of 289 in IA (top 96%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 282 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 54% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 287 units permitted in Black Hawk County in 2024 (67 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $581 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Black Hawk County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.8% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 218 days — a 12% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $84k implies a 140% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $73,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 218 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.66%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $55,281
• List price: $84,000
• Delta: 51.95%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
610 Baltimore St	0.27mi	3/1.0	1,248 (-2%)	2mo	$98,400	$79	83
209 Kingsley Avenue Ave	0.53mi	3/1.0	1,294 (+2%)	0mo	$90,000	$70	72
517 W 9th St	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,232 (-3%)	5mo	$35,000	$28	62
132 Moir St	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,322 (+4%)	5mo	$80,000	$61	61
207 Denver St	0.30mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,420 (+12%)	1mo	$92,500	$65	59
200 Moir St	0.52mi	3/1.0	1,152 (-9%)	4mo	$50,000	$43	57
150 Hawthorne Ave	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,363 (+7%)	3mo	$187,000	$137	55
418 Bayard St	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,456 (+14%)	4mo	$35,000	$24	54
820 Bertch Ave	0.51mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,208 (-5%)	4mo	$177,000	$147	54
403 Belmont Ave	0.37mi	3/1.5	1,462 (+15%)	3mo	$104,000	$71	53
2006 W 3rd St	0.75mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,166 (-8%)	2mo	$75,000	$64	44
1115 Hawthorne Ave	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,106 (-13%)	2mo	$125,000	$113	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.8% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $3,025
• Equity at exit: $12,525

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.12×
• Total profit: $26,459
• Equity at exit: $7,263

Cash invested: $23,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 50701

• Rents YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 282
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,023 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$441
• Tax from tax record: −$85 /mo · $1,018/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$215
• Net cashflow: $248

Break-even live

Break-even rent $709

Max offer price $84,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $296	-5% $272	+0% $248	+5% $224	+10% $201
Rent	-10% $167	-5% $208	+0% $248	+5% $289	+10% $329
Rate	-1.0pp $290	-0.5pp $269	base $248	+0.5pp $226	+1.0pp $204

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,000
• Closing costs: $2,520
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
820 W 2nd St Apt 2 Waterloo, IA	2.0	1.5	1100	$695	$0.63	44d	1	0.14mi
313 Denver St Unit Downstairs Waterloo, IA	2.0	1.5	950	$695	$0.73	21d	1	0.23mi
418 Sunnyside Ave Waterloo, IA	3.0	1.0	1200	$675	$0.56	44d	1	0.24mi
416 Sunnyside Ave Waterloo, IA	3.0	1.0	1200	$825	$0.69	44d	1	0.25mi
702 Western Ave Waterloo, IA	2.0	1.5	1500	$1,100	$0.73	21d	1	0.28mi
1427 W 2nd St Waterloo, IA	3.0	1.0	1248	$1,250	$1.00	44d	1	0.39mi
1524 1/2 W 5th St Unit 1524 1/2 Waterloo, IA	2.0	1.0	981	$850	$0.87	21d	1	0.40mi
W Mullan Ave Waterloo, IA	2.0	1.0	918	$710	$0.77	44d	2	0.44mi
905 Baltimore St Waterloo, IA	3.0	1.5	1392	$1,025	$0.74	44d	1	0.50mi
616 Kimball Ave Waterloo, IA	3.0	1.0	1302	$1,100	$0.84	44d	1	0.51mi
719 Marsh St Waterloo, IA	3.0	1.0	1224	$1,100	$0.90	21d	1	0.58mi
223 W 4th St Ste 203 Waterloo, IA	2.0	1.5	1466	$1,250	$0.85	44d	1	0.59mi
45 W Jefferson St Waterloo, IA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1062	$1,750	$1.65	21d	9	0.60mi
1840 W 3rd St Waterloo, IA	2.0	1.0	1770	$700	$0.40	45d	1	0.63mi
1112 Byron Ave Unit 1114 Waterloo, IA	2.0	1.0	896	$930	$1.04	21d	1	0.80mi
824 Sycamore St Unit 824-09 Waterloo, IA	2.0	2.0	1054	$1,250	$1.19	44d	1	0.92mi
924 Sycamore St #1 Waterloo, IA	2.0	2.0	1054	$1,250	$1.19	44d	1	0.94mi
136 Janney Ave Waterloo, IA	2.0	2.0	901	$1,325	$1.47	44d	1	0.96mi
920-928 Sycamore St Unit 920-07 Waterloo, IA	2.0	2.0	1054	$1,250	$1.19	44d	1	0.98mi
311 E 3rd St Waterloo, IA	2.0	2.0	1154	$1,500	$1.30	21d	1	1.00mi
910 Mulberry St Apt 3 Waterloo, IA	2.0	1.0	1064	$695	$0.65	21d	1	1.11mi
1107 Mulberry St Waterloo, IA	3.0	1.0	1248	$950	$0.76	21d	1	1.19mi
2539 W 3rd St Waterloo, IA	3.0	2.5	1200	$1,695	$1.41	21d	1	1.24mi
216 Courtland St Apt 1 Waterloo, IA	4.0	1.0	1150	$825	$0.72	21d	1	1.33mi
105 Bellaire Rd Waterloo, IA	2.0	2.0	1088	$1,100	$1.01	21d	1	1.34mi
154 Acadia St Unit 2 Waterloo, IA	2.0	1.0	995	$1,200	$1.21	44d	1	1.36mi
2215 Falls Ave Waterloo, IA	3.0	1.0	1290	$1,400	$1.09	44d	1	1.44mi
214 Edwards St Waterloo, IA	3.0	1.0	1150	$825	$0.72	21d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $84,000 Active 218 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $84,000 Active 217 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $84,000 Active 216 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $84,000 Active 215 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $84,000 Active 214 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $84,000 Active 212 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $84,000 Active 211 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $84,000 Active 209 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $84,000 Active 208 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    price $84,000 Active 207 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $85,000 Active 207 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $85,000 Active 206 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $85,000 Active 203 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,000 Active 202 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 201 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 200 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 199 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $85,000 Active 198 DOM
19. 2026-03-16
    price $85,000 363-char remark

    Show marketing remark (363 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom house with approximately 1,272 square feet of living space. It features beautiful woodwork, built-in bookshelves in the dining room/library area, and includes a stove, refrigerator, washer, and dryer. You'll love the bathroom with all new fixtures, new windows, and new paint and flooring throughout. Call for an easy showing today!

20. 2025-12-02
    price $89,000 363-char remark

    Show marketing remark (363 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom house with approximately 1,272 square feet of living space. It features beautiful woodwork, built-in bookshelves in the dining room/library area, and includes a stove, refrigerator, washer, and dryer. You'll love the bathroom with all new fixtures, new windows, and new paint and flooring throughout. Call for an easy showing today!

21. 2025-11-11
    listed $92,000 Active 363-char remark

    Show marketing remark (363 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom house with approximately 1,272 square feet of living space. It features beautiful woodwork, built-in bookshelves in the dining room/library area, and includes a stove, refrigerator, washer, and dryer. You'll love the bathroom with all new fixtures, new windows, and new paint and flooring throughout. Call for an easy showing today!

22. 2010-01-05
    soldstatus $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,018 · $85/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,168 · $97/mo
• Expected delta: +$150/yr (+$13/mo · 14.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,281
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,705
• − Property taxes: −$1,018
• − Insurance: −$420
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$982
• − Management: −$982
• − Depreciation: −$2,444
• Taxable income: $1,729
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$415
• After-tax cash flow: $2,563/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waterloo Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1930480
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $42,545
• Composite: 43.72/100
• National rank: #2950
• State rank: #276 of 289 in IA

Livability — Waterloo

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #74
• US rank: #1589

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waterloo, IA
• County: Black Hawk County · 112,933 people
• City population: 69,066
• Metro: Waterloo-Cedar Falls, IA
• Population (ZIP): 30,232
• Household income: $61,475
• Rent vs Own: 32.8% rent · 67.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1377.0

Population outlook (Black Hawk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 139,716 people
• By 2030: 142,853 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 147,843 · +5.8%
• By 2050: 153,247 · +9.7%
• By 2075: 167,977 · +20.2%
• By 2100: 177,320 · +26.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 11% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Italian 3% American 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Black Hawk

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.0% · R 48.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.3pp toward R · 2008: 22.4pp · 2024: 1.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.2 2020: D+9.0 2016: D+7.3 2012: D+20.0 2008: D+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.19%
• Current HPI: 162.8951
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• Metro: Waterloo-Cedar Falls, IA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

+142.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $85,000 NEIRBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $89,000 NEIRBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-11-11 Listed $92,000 NEIRBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2010-01-05 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,018 · +8.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.