4681 Pago Pago Ln · Bonita Springs, FL 34134

$239,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 139 Days on market

Built 1980 6,534 sqft lot $97/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.1/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Rare large corner lot home. Gulf access community to Estero Bay and the Gulf of Mexico. Endless boating and kayaking. Own your own land. HOA Fees only $97. Cheap boat storage. Lots of amenities with Clubhouse and heated pool and jacuzzi. New large carport with storage room and 220 square foot Florida room.

Key facts

• Own your own land
• Gulf access
• Boating and kayaking

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• GULF ACCESS
• BOATING AND KAYAKING
• OWN YOUR OWN LAND
• HEATED POOL
• JACUZZI

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Part of a community with approximately 200 units; Lot zoning: MH-1; Lot exposures: South; Lot dimensions approximately 70 x 90 (corner lot)
• Financial info: Pets allowed
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with $97 monthly fee; Association fee includes cable TV, internet, trash, and water; Community amenities: pool, spa/hot tub, clubhouse, boat dock, boat ramp, RV/boat storage, tennis courts, basketball court, bocce court, shuffleboard court, billiard room, library, dog park, barbecue/picnic area, management

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking for 2; Attached carport; Golf cart garage
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Manufactured home; 1 story; Faces north; Resale
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Built-up roof; Flat roof
• Exterior features: Patio; Lanai; Porch; Screened porch; Corner lot; Paved road

Interior

• Kitchen: Freezer; Disposal; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Main level primary
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Wall furnace heating; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Built-in features; Separate/formal dining room; Main level primary bedroom; Shower only with separate shower; High speed internet; Unfurnished; Single hung windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $400 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $240k).
• Recommended offer: $211k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 1.7% in Bonita Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#428 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: schools C-, cost of living C-, health & safety D.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 699 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $142k; list at $240k implies a 69% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $210,760 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.79%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-13,483
• Equity at exit: $35,710

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $20,435
• Equity at exit: $20,708

Cash invested: $67,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34134

• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 699
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,175 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,256
• Tax from tax record: −$229 /mo · $2,743/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$97
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$667
• Net cashflow: $400

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,668

Max offer price $239,500

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,875
• Closing costs: $7,185
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4709 Kon Tiki Ln Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1475	$1,500	$1.02	23d	1	0.22mi
4700 Leilani Ln Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1380	$5,000	$3.62	23d	1	0.39mi
4161 Sawgrass Point Dr #101 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1445	$5,500	$3.81	23d	1	0.42mi
4161 Sawgrass Point Dr #101 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1445	$5,500	$3.81	21d	1	0.42mi
25130 Sandpiper Greens Ct #104 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1392	$6,500	$4.67	23d	1	0.43mi
4200 Sawgrass Point Dr #101 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1445	$5,250	$3.63	23d	1	0.50mi
4201 Sawgrass Point Dr #102 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1319	$5,000	$3.79	23d	1	0.52mi
24821 Lakemont Cove Ln #101 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1203	$6,500	$5.40	23d	1	0.97mi
25248 Pelican Creek Cir #102 Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1458	$7,000	$4.80	23d	1	1.11mi
3431 Pointe Creek Ct Bonita Springs, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1414	$2,365	$1.67	19d	2	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $97 · $1,164/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-05-25
   historical
2. 2026-05-08
   price $239,500
3. 2026-04-13
   price $245,000
4. 2026-03-24
   price $249,500
5. 2026-03-04
   price $256,000
6. 2026-02-20
   price $259,000
7. 2026-01-30
   price $262,000
8. 2026-01-05
   listed $265,000 Active
9. 2025-11-14
   historical
10. 2025-10-29
    price $265,000
11. 2025-09-17
    price $269,500
12. 2025-08-01
    listed $273,000 Active
13. 2024-12-13
    historical
14. 2024-11-14
    listed $259,000 Active
15. 2018-04-26
    soldstatus $142,000
16. 2018-03-22
    price $150,000
17. 2018-02-08
    price $169,900
18. 2005-09-06
    soldstatus $171,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,743 · $229/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,743 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,096
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,416
• − Property taxes: −$2,743
• − Insurance: −$6,316
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,048
• − Management: −$3,048
• − HOA: −$1,164
• − Depreciation: −$6,967
• Taxable income: $1,394
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$335
• After-tax cash flow: $4,466/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bonita Springs

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #428
• US rank: #7576

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bonita Springs, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 64,727
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 16,475
• Household income: $130,719
• Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 554.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Romanian 4% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -236.48%
• Current HPI: 237.4416
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.85%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+39.3% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-25 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $239,500 FORTMLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $245,000 FORTMLS
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $249,500 FORTMLS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $256,000 FORTMLS
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $259,000 FORTMLS
• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $262,000 FORTMLS
• 2026-01-05 Listed $265,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-11-14 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2025-10-29 Price Changed $265,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-09-17 Price Changed $269,500 FORTMLS
• 2025-08-01 Listed $273,000 FORTMLS
• 2024-12-13 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2024-11-14 Listed $259,000 FORTMLS
• 2018-04-26 Sold (Public Records) $142,000 Public Records
• 2018-03-22 Price Changed $150,000 BEARMLS
• 2018-02-08 Price Changed $169,900 BEARMLS
• 2005-09-06 Sold (Public Records) $171,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,743 · +13.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.