1017 Cherry Tree Xing · Upper Macungie, PA 18031

$49,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,300 sqft · Manufactured · 105 Days on market

Built 1979 8,750 sqft lot $38/sqft · 30% below area Est $70k · 30% under $1100/mo HOA · 49% of rent ↓ 24% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this well-sought-after manufactured home in the desirable Green Acres Community! This charming residence offers 2 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, providing comfortable living with thoughtful accessibility features throughout. The home features a finished kitchen, spacious living areas, and is fully handicap accessible, including a handicap lift and accessible shower, making it ideal for a variety of living needs. Stay warm and cozy with a pellet heater, perfect for efficient supplemental heating. Outside, enjoy a large garden area, ideal for relaxing or gardening, along with a two-car driveway for convenient parking. The property also includes a storage shed, providing additional space for tools, equipment, or seasonal items. This home is being offered as-is and requires minor cosmetic repairs. A contractor is already on site with a repair list and quote, with work estimated to be completed in less than one week, making this a great opportunity for buyers looking to add quick value. Property has an enclosed porch, enclosed back yard and ample amount of open yard space for personal use and gardening. Property has 40gallon water heater and pellet oven heater that will reduce your heating bill to $500-$700 a year. Sellers are highly motivated and flexible. Property needs minor cosmetic repairs. Property is located in desirable parkland school district. Whether you're looking for a comfortable primary residence or an affordable home in a great community, this property offers strong potential and accessibility in a highly desirable location. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Finished kitchen
• Two-car driveway
• Storage shed

Tags

• FINISHED KITCHEN
• PELLET HEATER
• LARGE GARDEN AREA
• TWO-CAR DRIVEWAY
• STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $49k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $264 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $49k).
• Recommended offer: $45k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Parkland SD (suburban): math 59% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #40 of 539 in PA (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 123 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 41% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 765 units permitted in Lehigh County in 2024 (286 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.7%/yr); year-one equity from $339 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $352 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lehigh County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-0.7% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($45k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 49% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $44,590 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.94%
• DSCR: 2.29
• GRM: 1.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $70,178
• List price: $49,000
• Delta: -30.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1012 Spruce Ln	0.09mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+3%)	3mo	$75,000	$56	83
8865 Breinig Run Cir	0.21mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+3%)	2mo	$92,500	$69	78
8727 Evergreen Cir	0.09mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+3%)	10mo	$50,000	$37	77
8850 Turkey Ridge Rd	0.09mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+3%)	11mo	$20,000	$15	76
8902 Breinig Run Cir	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-11%)	6mo	$75,000	$65	69
8914 Breinig Run Cir	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (-8%)	13mo	$53,000	$44	65
8726 Breinig Run Cir	0.25mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (-11%)	5mo	$77,000	$67	61
8719 Turkey Ridge Rd	0.40mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,120 (-14%)	6mo	$69,000	$62	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.72% appreciation · 1.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $12,122
• Equity at exit: $12,494

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.21×
• Total profit: $30,270
• Equity at exit: $13,697

Cash invested: $13,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18031

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 123
• Price-to-rent: 1.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,240 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$257
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$61 /mo · $735/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$1,100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$470
• Net cashflow: $264

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,905

Max offer price $49,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,250
• Closing costs: $1,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8749 Breinig Run Cir Breinigsville, PA	2.0	2.0	1029	$1,695	$1.65	2d	1	0.17mi
1140 Tudor Dr Breinigsville, PA	3.0	2.5	1670	$2,500	$1.50	23d	1	0.55mi
8938 Breinigsville Rd Breinigsville, PA	3.0	1.5	1547	$2,250	$1.45	2d	1	0.60mi
1208 Martin Rd Breinigsville, PA	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,450	$1.63	43d	1	0.70mi
1145 Martin Rd Breinigsville, PA	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,500	$1.67	2d	1	0.73mi
1273 Martin Rd Breinigsville, PA	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,550	$1.70	43d	1	0.76mi
1175 Susan Cir Breinigsville, PA	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,600	$1.73	43d	1	0.76mi
1177 Susan Cir Breinigsville, PA	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,500	$1.67	43d	1	0.76mi
8348 Fair Way Breinigsville, PA	3.0	2.5	1520	$2,750	$1.81	23d	1	0.81mi
8328 Fair Way Breinigsville, PA	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,600	$1.73	23d	1	0.82mi
8395 Saylor Ct Breinigsville, PA	3.0	1.5	1056	$2,100	$1.99	14d	1	0.99mi
1447 Artisan Ct Breinigsville, PA	2.0	1.5	1056	$2,150	$2.04	14d	1	1.00mi
1055 Cetronia Rd Breinigsville, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1094	$2,355	$2.15	2d	8	1.13mi
9751 Newtown Rd Unit B Breinigsville, PA	2.0	1.0	1288	$2,300	$1.79	2d	1	1.20mi
1585 Pinewind Dr Alburtis, PA	3.0	2.5	1618	$2,490	$1.54	43d	1	1.28mi
1132 Sparrow Way Breinigsville, PA	3.0	2.5	1622	$2,500	$1.54	43d	1	1.29mi
1600 Greystone Cir Alburtis, PA	3.0	2.5	1662	$2,475	$1.49	43d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $1,100 · $13,200/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,000 Active 105 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,000 Active 104 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,000 Active 103 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,000 Active 102 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $49,000 Active 100 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,000 Active 99 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $49,000 Active 97 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,000 Active 96 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $49,000 Active 95 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,000 Active 94 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $49,000 Active 90 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,000 Active 89 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,000 Active 88 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,000 Active 87 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,000 Active 86 DOM
16. 2026-04-09
    price $49,000 1601-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1601 chars)

    Welcome to this well-sought-after manufactured home in the desirable Green Acres Community! This charming residence offers 2 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, providing comfortable living with thoughtful accessibility features throughout. The home features a finished kitchen, spacious living areas, and is fully handicap accessible, including a handicap lift and accessible shower, making it ideal for a variety of living needs. Stay warm and cozy with a pellet heater, perfect for efficient supplemental heating. Outside, enjoy a large garden area, ideal for relaxing or gardening, along with a two-car driveway for convenient parking. The property also includes a storage shed, providing additional space for tools, equipment, or seasonal items. This home is being offered as-is and requires minor cosmetic repairs. A contractor is already on site with a repair list and quote, with work estimated to be completed in less than one week, making this a great opportunity for buyers looking to add quick value. Property has an enclosed porch, enclosed back yard and ample amount of open yard space for personal use and gardening. Property has 40gallon water heater and pellet oven heater that will reduce your heating bill to $500-$700 a year. Sellers are highly motivated and flexible. Property needs minor cosmetic repairs. Property is located in desirable parkland school district. Whether you're looking for a comfortable primary residence or an affordable home in a great community, this property offers strong potential and accessibility in a highly desirable location. Schedule your showing today!

17. 2026-03-27
    price $59,999 1601-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1601 chars)

    Welcome to this well-sought-after manufactured home in the desirable Green Acres Community! This charming residence offers 2 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, providing comfortable living with thoughtful accessibility features throughout. The home features a finished kitchen, spacious living areas, and is fully handicap accessible, including a handicap lift and accessible shower, making it ideal for a variety of living needs. Stay warm and cozy with a pellet heater, perfect for efficient supplemental heating. Outside, enjoy a large garden area, ideal for relaxing or gardening, along with a two-car driveway for convenient parking. The property also includes a storage shed, providing additional space for tools, equipment, or seasonal items. This home is being offered as-is and requires minor cosmetic repairs. A contractor is already on site with a repair list and quote, with work estimated to be completed in less than one week, making this a great opportunity for buyers looking to add quick value. Property has an enclosed porch, enclosed back yard and ample amount of open yard space for personal use and gardening. Property has 40gallon water heater and pellet oven heater that will reduce your heating bill to $500-$700 a year. Sellers are highly motivated and flexible. Property needs minor cosmetic repairs. Property is located in desirable parkland school district. Whether you're looking for a comfortable primary residence or an affordable home in a great community, this property offers strong potential and accessibility in a highly desirable location. Schedule your showing today!

18. 2026-03-05
    listed $65,000 Active 1601-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1601 chars)

    Welcome to this well-sought-after manufactured home in the desirable Green Acres Community! This charming residence offers 2 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, providing comfortable living with thoughtful accessibility features throughout. The home features a finished kitchen, spacious living areas, and is fully handicap accessible, including a handicap lift and accessible shower, making it ideal for a variety of living needs. Stay warm and cozy with a pellet heater, perfect for efficient supplemental heating. Outside, enjoy a large garden area, ideal for relaxing or gardening, along with a two-car driveway for convenient parking. The property also includes a storage shed, providing additional space for tools, equipment, or seasonal items. This home is being offered as-is and requires minor cosmetic repairs. A contractor is already on site with a repair list and quote, with work estimated to be completed in less than one week, making this a great opportunity for buyers looking to add quick value. Property has an enclosed porch, enclosed back yard and ample amount of open yard space for personal use and gardening. Property has 40gallon water heater and pellet oven heater that will reduce your heating bill to $500-$700 a year. Sellers are highly motivated and flexible. Property needs minor cosmetic repairs. Property is located in desirable parkland school district. Whether you're looking for a comfortable primary residence or an affordable home in a great community, this property offers strong potential and accessibility in a highly desirable location. Schedule your showing today!

19. 2025-07-25
    status Active
20. 2025-07-25
    price $49,900
21. 2025-07-21
    status Pending
22. 2025-06-20
    status Active
23. 2025-06-20
    price $59,900
24. 2025-05-14
    status Pending
25. 2025-03-17
    listed $64,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 17% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,879
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,745
• − Property taxes: −$735
• − Insurance: −$1,042
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,150
• − Management: −$2,150
• − HOA: −$13,200
• − Depreciation: −$1,425
• Taxable income: $3,431
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$823
• After-tax cash flow: $2,350/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Parkland SD
• NCES district ID: 4218510
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $77,976
• Composite: 57.44/100
• National rank: #1074
• State rank: #40 of 539 in PA

Livability — Upper Macungie

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Breinigsville, PA
• County: Lehigh County · 333,019 people
• Metro: Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ
• Population (ZIP): 11,570
• Household income: $113,625
• Rent vs Own: 23.7% rent · 76.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 52.0

Population outlook (Lehigh County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 392,957 people
• By 2030: 408,319 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 440,007 · +12.0%
• By 2050: 475,940 · +21.1%
• By 2075: 590,448 · +50.3%
• By 2100: 690,314 · +75.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 17% Asian 12% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 7% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Polish 4% Lithuanian 3% Scandinavian 3%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, United Kingdom, China
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 8% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lehigh

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.7% · R 48.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.9pp toward R · 2008: 15.6pp · 2024: 2.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.7 2020: D+7.6 2016: D+4.4 2012: D+7.5 2008: D+15.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.72%
• Current HPI: 267.8218
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.92%
• Metro: Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-24.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $49,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $59,999 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-05 Listed $65,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-07-25 Relisted — PMAR
• 2025-07-25 Price Changed $49,900 PMAR
• 2025-07-21 Pending — PMAR
• 2025-06-20 Relisted — PMAR
• 2025-06-20 Price Changed $59,900 PMAR
• 2025-05-14 Pending — PMAR
• 2025-03-17 Listed $64,900 PMAR