9403 Good Luck Rd · Seabrook, MD 20706

$190,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 920 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1959 0.30 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.4/30.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

ONLINE AUCTION: This auction takes place on the Ashland Auction Group Website Bidding Platform. Bidding begins06/15/2026 @ 10:00 AM. Bidding ends 06/17/2026 @ 11:10 AM. List Price is Suggested Opening Bid. Deposit: $30,000. 1 Story Detached home located in Lanham, Maryland within Prince George's County. The property features a driveway and a carport. Residents can enjoy the nearby attractions such as Glenn Dale Park, Luminis Health Doctors Community Center, Vista Gardens Marketplace, & +/- 15 miles to Downtown Washington DC. Easy Access to Major Traffic Artery 495 Beltway. Occupancy status is unknown.

Key facts

• Driveway
• Carport
• Nearby attractions

Tags

• 1 STORY DETACHED HOME
• DRIVEWAY
• CARPORT
• NEARBY ATTRACTIONS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Assessor used as source for living area and year built; 920 sq ft finished above grade and 920 sq ft below grade (unfinished)
• Financial info: Ownership is fee simple

Exterior

• Utilities: Natural gas hot water; Natural gas heating fuel; Public sewer; Other water source
• Home design: Brick construction
• Construction: Brick construction; Other foundation
• Exterior features: Detached structure; Above-grade and below-grade other structures; No tidal water

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Two fireplaces

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $437 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 4.6% in Seabrook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#162 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, commute B; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Prince George'S County Public Schools (suburban): math 8% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #21 of 24 in MD (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 124 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,481 units permitted in Prince George's County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Prince George's County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $129k; 47% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $190,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.86%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $435,160
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9904 Lanham Severn Rd	0.57mi	3/2.0	988 (+7%)	0mo	$360,000	$364	61
9705 Locust Ave	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	972 (+6%)	0mo	$459,900	$473	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-9,789
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $908
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20706

• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 124
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,373 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$362 /mo · $4,341/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$498
• Net cashflow: $437

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,819

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8671 Greenbelt Rd #101 Greenbelt, MD	3.0	1.0	1072	$2,099	$1.96	43d	1	0.83mi
8501 Greenbelt Rd Greenbelt, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	933	$2,364	$2.53	43d	1	0.86mi
10023 Greenbelt Rd Lanham, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	983	$2,412	$2.45	1d	16	1.02mi
9971 Good Luck Rd Lanham, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1155	$2,397	$2.08	1d	27	1.03mi
5618 Whitfield Chapel Rd Lanham, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	743	$1,922	$2.59	10d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $190,000 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $190,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $190,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $190,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 609-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $190,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,341 · $362/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,341 · $362/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 21% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,473
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$4,341
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,278
• − Management: −$2,278
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable income: $2,455
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$589
• After-tax cash flow: $4,656/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Prince George'S County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400510
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $73,967
• Composite: 16.82/100
• National rank: #9151
• State rank: #21 of 24 in MD

Livability — Seabrook

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #162
• US rank: #7350

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B Cost of living D- Crime D- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Seabrook, MD
• County: Prince Georges County · 919,866 people
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 42,612
• Household income: $104,523
• Rent vs Own: 28.1% rent · 71.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 641.0

Population outlook (Prince George's County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,005,426 people
• By 2030: 1,048,416 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,123,425 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,183,220 · +17.7%
• By 2075: 1,306,202 · +29.9%
• By 2100: 1,408,179 · +40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 10% White 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 1% Swiss 1%
• Foreign-born: 37% · Canada, United Kingdom, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 60% English-only · Spanish 23% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Prince George's

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+75.2) · D 86.3% · R 11.2% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: 78.5pp · 2024: 75.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+75.2 2020: D+80.5 2016: D+81.0 2012: D+80.9 2008: D+78.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -279.37%
• Current HPI: 284.8481
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.85%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+47.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $190,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1992-04-14 Sold (Public Records) $129,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,341 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.