1003 Forest View Cv · Hickory Flat, MS 38633

$139,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 101 Days on market

Built 1993 1.00 ac lot $93/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This property is now under auction terms. All offers should be submitted through www. Auction.com. This property is subject to a 5% buyer’s premium pursuant to the Auction Terms & Conditions (minimums may apply). All auction assets will be sold subject to seller approval. Buyers are responsible for verifying all square footage, taxes & schools before making an offer. Seller and seller’s agents make no representations or warranties as to property condition and will be sold As-Is. HOA PER MONTH COVERS WATER/ROAD/POOL/LAKE.

Key facts

• Fiber optic internet
• Cable available
• 1 acre lot

Tags

• FULL ACCESS TO THE LAKE
• LARGE STORAGE BUILDING
• FIBER OPTIC INTERNET
• CABLE AVAILABLE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-93 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $123k (11.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $110k (21.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $110k (21.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#81 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Union County School District (rural): math 54% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #13 of 130 in MS (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 17 units permitted in Union County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($967 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (5.5% local appreciation)).
• Union County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 24% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,313 (21.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.85%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.49% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.77×
• Total profit: $30,305
• Equity at exit: $83,499

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.43×
• Total profit: $95,044
• Equity at exit: $147,723

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38633

• Home prices YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 14
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,103 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $954/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$93
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$232
• Net cashflow: $-93

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,221

Max offer price $123,477

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-14	-5% $-53	+0% $-93	+5% $-133	+10% $-172
Rent	-10% $-180	-5% $-137	+0% $-93	+5% $-49	+10% $-6
Rate	-1.0pp $-23	-0.5pp $-57	base $-93	+0.5pp $-129	+1.0pp $-166

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $93 · $1,116/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-01
   remarks 630-char remark
2. 2026-06-01
   listed $139,900 Pending 101 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $954 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,105 · $92/mo
• Expected delta: +$151/yr (+$13/mo · 15.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 24% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,238
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$954
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,059
• − Management: −$1,059
• − HOA: −$1,116
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable loss: −$3,556
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$854
• After-tax cash flow: $-262/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Union County School District
• NCES district ID: 2804350
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $37,935
• Composite: 42.49/100
• National rank: #3209
• State rank: #13 of 130 in MS

Livability — Hickory Flat

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #81
• US rank: #10698

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,091

Population outlook (Union County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 30,992 people
• By 2030: 32,294 · +4.2%
• By 2040: 34,789 · +12.3%
• By 2050: 36,987 · +19.3%
• By 2075: 40,835 · +31.8%
• By 2100: 40,538 · +30.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Russian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Union

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.1) · D 14.5% · R 84.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.2pp toward R · 2008: -49.9pp · 2024: -70.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.1 2020: R+64.8 2016: R+63.2 2012: R+51.0 2008: R+49.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.49%
• Current HPI: 126.6904
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+137.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Pending — NEMSBD
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $139,900 NEMSBD
• 2025-12-10 Listed $145,000 NEMSBD
• 2025-05-28 Price Changed $150,000 NEMSBD
• 2025-02-01 Listed $159,900 NEMSBD
• 2018-06-07 Sold (MLS) — NEMSBD
• 2017-07-08 Listed $43,750 NEMSBD
• 2009-11-30 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2009-08-19 Listed $59,000 MLSU

Property tax history

-1.0%/yr

Latest (2019): $954 · -5.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.