3665 Cub Dr · Conroe, TX 77301

$235,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,231 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 96 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 4,782 sqft lot $105/sqft · 18% below area Est $287k · 18% under $38/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 26% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step inside to a welcoming foyer with soaring ceilings and the first floor is perfect for everyday living and entertaining.The kitchen has a spacious layout that opens to the dining and family rooms. This two-story plan features 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and a 2-car garage. The Owner’s Suite, conveniently located on the first floor, offers a peaceful retreat with a bay window, double sinks, an extended shower, and a generous walk-in closet. Upstairs, you’ll find three secondary bedrooms and a full bath, providing plenty of space for family, guests, or a home office. BONUS-THIS HOME HAS CUSTOM PERMANENT LIGHTING INSTALLED ON THE EXTERIOR.

Key facts

• 4,782 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2022

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $235k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-384 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $167k (28.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (11.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $167k (28.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Wilkinson El (math 38% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,490 of 4,322 statewide, top 35%, 944 students, 54% FRL); Bozman Int (math 44% / reading 40%, grade D-, #572 of 1,662 statewide, top 36%, 988 students, 68% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 34% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 41% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 487 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($214k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $44k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.4% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,088 (28.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.01%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $287,206
• List price: $235,000
• Delta: -18.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3503 Cannon Dr	0.13mi	4/2.5	2,236 (+0%)	1mo	$259,995	$116	93
3548 Cannon Dr	0.03mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,120 (-5%)	3mo	$250,000	$118	83
2135 Ethan Dr	0.10mi	4/2.5	2,034 (-9%)	2mo	$269,000	$132	79
3066 Nickell Back Dr	0.52mi	4/2.5	2,111 (-5%)	2mo	$289,990	$137	65
3050 Nickell Back Dr	0.51mi	4/2.5	2,111 (-5%)	3mo	$277,990	$132	65
2254 Strong Horse Dr	0.49mi	4/3.0	2,340 (+5%)	3mo	$305,000	$130	65
3014 Nickell Back Dr	0.49mi	4/2.5	2,032 (-9%)	2mo	$265,000	$130	61
3010 Nickell Back Dr	0.49mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,094 (-6%)	2mo	$259,990	$124	60
3227 Bushy Hawthorne Dr	0.42mi	4/3.5	2,415 (+8%)	3mo	$363,990	$151	60
3042 Nickell Back Dr	0.51mi	4/2.5	2,032 (-9%)	3mo	$271,990	$134	59
3022 Nickell Back Dr	0.50mi	4/2.5	1,940 (-13%)	2mo	$261,990	$135	54
3006 Nickell Back Dr	0.49mi	4/2.5	1,947 (-13%)	3mo	$269,990	$139	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.00×
• Total profit: $-65,524
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: -44.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.52×
• Total profit: $-100,324
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77301

• Home prices YoY: -8.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 487
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,083 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$662 /mo · $7,938/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$38
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $-384

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,569

Max offer price $167,088

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-251	-5% $-318	+0% $-384	+5% $-451	+10% $-517
Rent	-10% $-549	-5% $-467	+0% $-384	+5% $-302	+10% $-220
Rate	-1.0pp $-266	-0.5pp $-325	base $-384	+0.5pp $-445	+1.0pp $-507

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3503 Cannon Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.5	2236	$1,850	$0.83	26d	1	0.12mi
3013 Tulip Poplar Trl Conroe, TX	4.0	2.5	2925	$2,226	$0.76	9d	1	0.69mi
1558 San Sebastien Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1683	$1,750	$1.04	4d	1	0.80mi
1530 San Sebastien Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	3.0	1845	$1,900	$1.03	24d	1	0.84mi
2617 Castille Valley Pl Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1683	$1,800	$1.07	4d	1	0.90mi
1307 Vincente Ct Conroe, TX	4.0	3.0	1860	$2,300	$1.24	45d	1	1.29mi
1702 Campos Ct Conroe, TX	4.0	2.5	2220	$2,050	$0.92	45d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $38 · $456/yr

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $235,000 Pending 96 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $235,000 Pending 95 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $235,000 Pending 94 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $235,000 Pending 93 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $235,000 Pending 92 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $235,000 Pending 90 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $235,000 Pending 86 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $235,000 Pending 85 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $235,000 Active 84 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $235,000 Active 81 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $235,000 Active 80 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $235,000 Active 79 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $235,000 Active 78 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $235,000 Active 77 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    price $245,000 654-char remark

    Show marketing remark (654 chars)

    Step inside to a welcoming foyer with soaring ceilings and the first floor is perfect for everyday living and entertaining.The kitchen has a spacious layout that opens to the dining and family rooms. This two-story plan features 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and a 2-car garage. The Owner’s Suite, conveniently located on the first floor, offers a peaceful retreat with a bay window, double sinks, an extended shower, and a generous walk-in closet. Upstairs, you’ll find three secondary bedrooms and a full bath, providing plenty of space for family, guests, or a home office. BONUS-THIS HOME HAS CUSTOM PERMANENT LIGHTING INSTALLED ON THE EXTERIOR.

16. 2026-04-30
    price $259,000 654-char remark

    Show marketing remark (654 chars)

    Step inside to a welcoming foyer with soaring ceilings and the first floor is perfect for everyday living and entertaining.The kitchen has a spacious layout that opens to the dining and family rooms. This two-story plan features 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and a 2-car garage. The Owner’s Suite, conveniently located on the first floor, offers a peaceful retreat with a bay window, double sinks, an extended shower, and a generous walk-in closet. Upstairs, you’ll find three secondary bedrooms and a full bath, providing plenty of space for family, guests, or a home office. BONUS-THIS HOME HAS CUSTOM PERMANENT LIGHTING INSTALLED ON THE EXTERIOR.

17. 2026-04-02
    price $269,000 654-char remark

    Show marketing remark (654 chars)

    Step inside to a welcoming foyer with soaring ceilings and the first floor is perfect for everyday living and entertaining.The kitchen has a spacious layout that opens to the dining and family rooms. This two-story plan features 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and a 2-car garage. The Owner’s Suite, conveniently located on the first floor, offers a peaceful retreat with a bay window, double sinks, an extended shower, and a generous walk-in closet. Upstairs, you’ll find three secondary bedrooms and a full bath, providing plenty of space for family, guests, or a home office. BONUS-THIS HOME HAS CUSTOM PERMANENT LIGHTING INSTALLED ON THE EXTERIOR.

18. 2026-03-15
    listed $279,000 Active 654-char remark

    Show marketing remark (654 chars)

    Step inside to a welcoming foyer with soaring ceilings and the first floor is perfect for everyday living and entertaining.The kitchen has a spacious layout that opens to the dining and family rooms. This two-story plan features 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and a 2-car garage. The Owner’s Suite, conveniently located on the first floor, offers a peaceful retreat with a bay window, double sinks, an extended shower, and a generous walk-in closet. Upstairs, you’ll find three secondary bedrooms and a full bath, providing plenty of space for family, guests, or a home office. BONUS-THIS HOME HAS CUSTOM PERMANENT LIGHTING INSTALLED ON THE EXTERIOR.

19. 2026-03-07
    historical
20. 2026-02-03
    listed $310,000 Active
21. 2023-04-04
    soldstatus Sold
22. 2023-02-28
    status Pending
23. 2023-02-14
    status Active
24. 2022-12-16
    status Pending
25. 2022-12-06
    listed $303,861 Active
26. 2022-12-06
    historical
27. 2022-11-16
    price $303,861
28. 2022-09-22
    price $307,990
29. 2022-09-09
    price $314,990
30. 2022-08-18
    price $328,861
31. 2022-08-18
    status Active
32. 2022-07-02
    status Pending
33. 2022-05-09
    listed $330,168 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,938 · $662/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,938 · $662/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,993
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$7,938
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,999
• − Management: −$1,999
• − HOA: −$456
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$8,575
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,058
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,555/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with a modern kitchen and spacious layout. It is move-in ready with minimal updates needed to enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Install smart home devices — Improves convenience and marketability
• Both Add smart thermostat — Enhances energy efficiency and comfort
• Both Add smart lighting — Enhances energy efficiency and ambiance

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Improves convenience and marketability ↑
• Both Add smart thermostat — Enhances energy efficiency and comfort ↑
• Both Add smart lighting — Enhances energy efficiency and ambiance ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Conroe, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 37,769
• Household income: $66,475
• Rent vs Own: 45.0% rent · 55.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1256.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 31% Two or more races 19% Black 13% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 45% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -25.51%
• Current HPI: 278.6662
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.43%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-25.8% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $245,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $259,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $269,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-15 Listed $279,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-03 Listed $310,000 HARMLS
• 2023-04-04 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2023-02-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-02-14 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2022-12-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-12-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-12-06 Listed $303,861 HARMLS
• 2022-11-16 Price Changed $303,861 HARMLS
• 2022-09-22 Price Changed $307,990 HARMLS
• 2022-09-09 Price Changed $314,990 HARMLS
• 2022-08-18 Price Changed $328,861 HARMLS
• 2022-08-18 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2022-07-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-05-09 Listed $330,168 HARMLS

Property tax history

+140.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,938 · +0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.