621 Clay Ave · Rochester, NY 14613

$159,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,334 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1912 4,780 sqft lot Est $143k · 12% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.7/30.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +2.2/10.0
• ARV discount +2.1/15.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This great home has been in the same family for many decades, and now it's time for someone to make their own memories here! Features include a modern kitchen, spacious dining room, and large living room and front entry room with a grand staircase. The bedrooms are generous sized, and it has an insulated, huge walk up attic. The big items, like vinyl siding and updated mechanics, are done! So with a little paint, polish and sweat equity, this affordable home could be back to it's former glory! Delayed negotiations set for 9/30/25 at 5pm.

Key facts

• Refreshed baths
• Modern kitchen
• Spacious layout

Tags

• MODERN KITCHEN
• REFRESHED BATHS
• ENCLOSED FRONT PORCH
• SPACIOUS LAYOUT
• TWO-CAR DETACHED GARAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected; Electric with circuit breakers
• Home design: 2 stories; Existing (pre-owned) property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Copper plumbing; Architectural shingle roof; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Enclosed porch; Open porch; Blacktop driveway; Near public transit; Rectangular residential lot; City street frontage

Interior

• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Separate/formal dining room; Entrance foyer; Separate/formal living room; Natural woodwork; Thermal windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $218 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (7.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $148k (7.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#222 in NY, #3,482 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, employment F.
• Rochester City School District (urban): math 21% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #589 of 590 in NY (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $99k; list at $160k implies a 62% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1912 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $148,380 (7.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1912 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.84%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $142,738
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
621 Clay Ave	0.00mi	3/1.5	1,334 (0%)	0mo	$200,000	$150	100
842 Flower City Park	0.12mi	3/1.5	1,300 (-2%)	1mo	$116,000	$89	90
273 Electric Ave	0.29mi	3/1.5	1,327 (-0%)	3mo	$150,000	$113	83
571 Flower City Park	0.35mi	3/1.5	1,302 (-2%)	4mo	$100,000	$77	76
225 Bryan St	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,315 (-1%)	3mo	$92,000	$70	68
533 Augustine St	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,262 (-5%)	5mo	$181,000	$143	67
451 Lakeview Park	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,326 (-1%)	3mo	$185,000	$140	64
262 Pullman Ave	0.66mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,350 (+1%)	4mo	$159,100	$118	59
541 Birr St	0.45mi	3/1.5	1,514 (+14%)	1mo	$142,000	$94	56
539 Lakeview Park	0.63mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,398 (+5%)	2mo	$150,000	$107	54
241 Lark St	0.51mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,490 (+12%)	4mo	$150,000	$101	46
43 Rand St	0.56mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,156 (-13%)	1mo	$110,000	$95	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-12,110
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $7,031
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14613

• Home prices YoY: -2.0%
• Active inventory: 71
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,484 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $591/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $218

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,208

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $308	-5% $263	+0% $218	+5% $173	+10% $127
Rent	-10% $101	-5% $159	+0% $218	+5% $276	+10% $335
Rate	-1.0pp $298	-0.5pp $258	base $218	+0.5pp $176	+1.0pp $134

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
287 Electric Ave Rochester, NY	3.0	1.5	1297	$1,500	$1.16	3d	1	0.26mi
1097 Dewey Ave Unit B Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	1008	$1,150	$1.14	15d	1	0.57mi
230 Pullman Ave Unit 1 Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	15d	1	0.67mi
116 Ridgeway Ave Rochester, NY	3.0	2.0	1032	$1,650	$1.60	3d	1	0.75mi
248 Flower City Park Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1350	$1,800	$1.33	4d	1	0.79mi
45 Clay Ave Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,700	$1.70	15d	1	0.81mi
1902 Dewey Ave Unit 1896 Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,150	$1.28	24d	1	0.85mi
1016 Lake Ave Unit 1 Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,600	$1.23	44d	1	0.98mi
254 Lexington Ave Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	950	$1,350	$1.42	4d	1	1.02mi
100 Andover St Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	750	$1,795	$2.39	3d	63	1.07mi
28-30 Carthage Dr Unit 28 Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1415	$1,600	$1.13	24d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-08
   listed $159,900 Active
3. 2025-12-02
   soldstatus $99,000
4. 2025-11-29
   soldstatus $99,000 Closed 544-char remark

   Show marketing remark (544 chars)

   This great home has been in the same family for many decades, and now it's time for someone to make their own memories here! Features include a modern kitchen, spacious dining room, and large living room and front entry room with a grand staircase. The bedrooms are generous sized, and it has an insulated, huge walk up attic. The big items, like vinyl siding and updated mechanics, are done! So with a little paint, polish and sweat equity, this affordable home could be back to it's former glory! Delayed negotiations set for 9/30/25 at 5pm.

5. 2025-10-02
   status Pending 544-char remark

   Show marketing remark (544 chars)

   This great home has been in the same family for many decades, and now it's time for someone to make their own memories here! Features include a modern kitchen, spacious dining room, and large living room and front entry room with a grand staircase. The bedrooms are generous sized, and it has an insulated, huge walk up attic. The big items, like vinyl siding and updated mechanics, are done! So with a little paint, polish and sweat equity, this affordable home could be back to it's former glory! Delayed negotiations set for 9/30/25 at 5pm.

6. 2025-09-25
   listed $99,000 Active 544-char remark

   Show marketing remark (544 chars)

   This great home has been in the same family for many decades, and now it's time for someone to make their own memories here! Features include a modern kitchen, spacious dining room, and large living room and front entry room with a grand staircase. The bedrooms are generous sized, and it has an insulated, huge walk up attic. The big items, like vinyl siding and updated mechanics, are done! So with a little paint, polish and sweat equity, this affordable home could be back to it's former glory! Delayed negotiations set for 9/30/25 at 5pm.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $591 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,647 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,056/yr (+$88/mo · 178.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,806
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$591
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,424
• − Management: −$1,424
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable loss: −$42
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$10
• After-tax cash flow: $2,624/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rochester City School District
• NCES district ID: 3624750
• Math proficiency: 21% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $30,923
• Composite: 18.98/100
• National rank: #8850
• State rank: #589 of 590 in NY

Livability — Rochester

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #3482

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rochester, NY
• City population: 432,803
• Population (ZIP): 14,740

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 759,460 people
• By 2030: 757,154 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 740,644 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 714,443 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 645,883 · -15.0%
• By 2100: 547,084 · -28.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 45% White 22% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 10% Asian 8% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 16% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: British 2% Serbian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, India, Philippines
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Asian/Pacific 5% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 59.5% · R 40.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.4pp toward D · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 19.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1 2020: D+21.0 2016: D+14.1 2012: D+17.4 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -5.56%
• Current HPI: 274.2485
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+61.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $159,900 UNYREIS
• 2025-12-02 Sold (Public Records) $99,000 Public Records
• 2025-11-29 Sold (MLS) $99,000 UNYREIS
• 2025-10-02 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2025-09-25 Listed $99,000 UNYREIS

Property tax history

-4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $591 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.