9330 Keilman St · St. John, IN 46373

$425,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,372 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1954 0.46 ac lot $310/sqft · 58% above area Est $455k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.4/15.0
• Cash flow +5.3/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

9330 Keilman Street in St. John. More than a house, it is a home, This 3 bedroom, 2 bath all-brick ranch with full basement has been proudly cared for by the same owners for over 20 years and is now ready for its next chapter and next proud owner. From the moment you arrive, you'll notice the mature trees, beautifully maintained lawn, and timeless durability of solid brick construction. Step inside to a freshly painted main level offering spacious rooms, abundant natural light, and beautiful hardwood flooring through much of the home. The oversized living room features large picture windows overlooking the front yard, creating a bright and welcoming feel. The spacious eat-in kitchen offers

Key facts

• Hardwood flooring
• All brick ranch
• Full basement

Tags

• ALL BRICK RANCH
• FULL BASEMENT
• HARDWOOD FLOORING
• OVERSIZED LIVING ROOM
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• FINISHED BASEMENT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2.5 garage spaces; Garage faces front and rear; Driveway; Additional parking; Garage door opener
• Security: Carbon monoxide detector(s); Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Electricity connected (generator available); Natural gas connected; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: One-level layout; Brick exterior; Built in 1954; Neighborhood view
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Private, fenced backyard with back-yard fencing; Patio; Fire pit; Outdoor lighting; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Microwave; Gas range; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Kitchen island; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom; Bedroom 2; Bedroom 3; Office (can be used as bedroom); Total rooms: 10
• Flooring: Hardwood; Tile; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Kitchen island; Eat-in kitchen; Finished full basement with sump pump; Fireplace in the great room; Water softener (owned); Storage
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on lower level; Washer hookup; Gas dryer hookup; Laundry sink

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $425k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-948 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $258k (39.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (50.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $212k (50.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lake Central School Corporation (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #41 of 301 in IN (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Kolling Elementary School (math 67% / reading 51%, grade B-, #151 of 994 statewide, top 16%, 695 students, 17% FRL); Hal E Clark Middle School (math 41% / reading 53%, grade D+, #65 of 330 statewide, top 21%, 1,069 students, 23% FRL); Lake Central High School (math 46% / reading 74%, grade C+, #46 of 369 statewide, top 13%, 3,069 students, 23% FRL).
• Market conditions: 260 active listings in the ZIP; 1,642 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($412k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $212,460 (50.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 50% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.50% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.56%
• DSCR: 0.57
• GRM: 16.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $454,786
• List price: $425,000
• Delta: -6.55%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9923 Pheasant Ln	0.74mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,412 (+3%)	17mo	$374,900	$266	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-129,385
• Equity at exit: $63,369

10-year hold

• IRR: -41.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.61×
• Total profit: $-191,032
• Equity at exit: $36,746

Cash invested: $119,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46373

• Home prices YoY: -23.8%
• Active inventory: 260
• Price-to-rent: 16.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,125 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax from tax record: −$220 /mo · $2,643/yr
• Insurance: −$177
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$446
• Net cashflow: $-948

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,324

Max offer price $257,591

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-707	-5% $-827	+0% $-948	+5% $-1,068	+10% $-1,188
Rent	-10% $-1,116	-5% $-1,032	+0% $-948	+5% $-864	+10% $-780
Rate	-1.0pp $-734	-0.5pp $-840	base $-948	+0.5pp $-1,058	+1.0pp $-1,170

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $106,250
• Closing costs: $12,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $425,000 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $425,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $425,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $425,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $425,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $425,000 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $425,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $425,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $425,000 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $425,000 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $425,000 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $425,000 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $425,000 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-13
    listed $425,000 Active 1999-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,643 · $220/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,128 · $261/mo
• Expected delta: +$485/yr (+$40/mo · 18.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,495
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,807
• − Property taxes: −$2,643
• − Insurance: −$2,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,040
• − Management: −$2,040
• − Depreciation: −$12,364
• Taxable loss: −$19,523
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,685
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,687/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Central School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1805450
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $75,957
• Composite: 44.82/100
• National rank: #2736
• State rank: #41 of 301 in IN

Livability — St. John

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. John, IN
• City population: 18,509
• Population (ZIP): 18,509

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,026 people
• By 2030: 478,091 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 462,974 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 449,894 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 436,169 · -9.9%
• By 2100: 426,607 · -11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 21% Iranian 6% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.6) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.6pp toward R · 2008: 34.3pp · 2024: 5.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.6 2020: D+15.1 2016: D+20.6 2012: D+31.0 2008: D+34.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.86%
• Current HPI: 224.1176
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $425,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,643 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.