102 Nebobish St · Bay City, MI 48732

$56,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 958 sqft · SingleFamily · 26 Days on market

Built 1930 7,840 sqft lot $58/sqft · 55% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Hampton Township! 3 bed 1 bath w/ basement. Attached garage and fenced yard, fireplace. Versatile floor plan Needs work throughout, but could be transformed to make it your own.

Key facts

• 7,840 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1930

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 1 parking space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sanitary sewer; Natural gas
• Home design: Residential 2-story home; Built in 1930
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Basement foundation
• Exterior features: Aluminum exterior; Road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on first level — approx. 13 x 13, vinyl flooring; Dining room on first level — approx. 12 x 9, wood flooring
• Bedrooms: Bedroom 1 (first level) — approx. 11 x 9, carpet; Bedroom 2 (second level) — approx. 9 x 9, vinyl; Bedroom 3 (second level) — approx. 11 (width) , carpet
• Flooring: Carpet in living areas and most bedrooms; Vinyl in kitchen and one bedroom; Wood flooring in dining room
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas fuel
• Interior features: Fireplace in the family room; Basement
• Laundry & utility: Basement (utility/laundry access)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $56k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $519 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $56k).
• Recommended offer: $55k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.4% vs local median 5.5% in Bay City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#360 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, crime F.
• Essexville-Hampton Public Schools (suburban): math 29% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #217 of 540 in MI (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 59 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 39 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $387 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($55k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $55,160 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.73%
• DSCR: 2.77
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $124,377
• List price: $56,000
• Delta: -54.98%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1302 Green Ave	0.18mi	2/1.0 (-1)	988 (+3%)	1mo	$145,000	$147	81
300 Thompson St	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,016 (+6%)	9mo	$112,000	$110	64
301 Mcewan St	0.37mi	3/1.0	864 (-10%)	4mo	$116,500	$135	63
208 Plummer St	0.23mi	3/1.0	832 (-13%)	6mo	$120,000	$144	63
3204 N Water St	0.39mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,046 (+9%)	3mo	$110,000	$105	60
1110 Chase St	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,011 (+6%)	8mo	$115,500	$114	53
206 Campbell St	0.43mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,052 (+10%)	8mo	$130,000	$124	52
308 Borton Ave	0.38mi	3/1.0	1,100 (+15%)	8mo	$144,900	$132	51
414 Cambridge St	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,074 (+12%)	1mo	$165,500	$154	44
804 Woodside Ave	0.73mi	2/1.0 (-1)	848 (-12%)	4mo	$113,000	$133	38
802 1st St	0.68mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,090 (+14%)	3mo	$159,900	$147	38
14 W Sharlear Dr	0.59mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,075 (+12%)	7mo	$130,000	$121	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.53×
• Total profit: $24,028
• Equity at exit: $8,350

10-year hold

• IRR: 42.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.06×
• Total profit: $63,661
• Equity at exit: $4,842

Cash invested: $15,680 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48732

• Home prices YoY: -21.6%
• Active inventory: 59
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,194 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$294
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,287/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $519

Break-even live

Break-even rent $537

Max offer price $56,000

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,000
• Closing costs: $1,680
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
800 McKinley St Bay City, MI	2.0	1.0	796	$925	$1.16	44d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-04-24
   listed $56,000 Active 177-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,287 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,287 · $107/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,330
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,137
• − Property taxes: −$1,287
• − Insurance: −$280
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,146
• − Management: −$1,146
• − Depreciation: −$1,629
• Taxable income: $5,704
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,369
• After-tax cash flow: $4,860/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Essexville-Hampton Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2613530
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $52,936
• Composite: 33.87/100
• National rank: #5349
• State rank: #217 of 540 in MI

Livability — Bay City

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #360
• US rank: #8912

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bay County · 36,975 people
• City population: 25,635
• Metro: Bay City, MI
• Population (ZIP): 11,340
• Household income: $57,903
• Rent vs Own: 31.6% rent · 68.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 200.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,476 people
• By 2030: 98,152 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 89,711 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 80,614 · -20.6%
• By 2075: 60,544 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 41,603 · -59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 15% Lithuanian 11% English 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: R (+14.7) · D 42.0% · R 56.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.0pp toward R · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: -14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.7 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+12.6 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -52.53%
• Current HPI: 191.1777
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Bay City, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $56,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,287 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.