9323 SE Highway 42 · The Villages, FL 34491

$278,400

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,468 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 2025 0.29 ac lot Est $305k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• ARV discount +11.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This 2025 St. Michael model home is a block construction property located within walking distance to the VA Veterans Clinic near The Villages. The home sits on a . 31-acre lot and offers no HOA, no 55+ restrictions, no CDD, no flood zone, and no other restrictions. With over 2,090 total square feet, the spacious open-concept living area is perfect for entertaining. The kitchen is elegantly designed with granite countertops, 42-inch wood cabinets with soft-close system and crown molding, a large multifunctional island with storage, electrical outlets, and bar seating, a stainless steel double-bowl apron sink, and Whirlpool appliances including a microwave over the range. The interior also fe

Key facts

• No cdd
• No flood zone
• Granite countertops

Tags

• BLOCK CONSTRUCTION
• NO HOA
• NO CDD
• NO FLOOD ZONE
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot cleared; Lot dimensions approximately 75 x 168; Lot size about 0.29 acres (approx. 1/4 to less than 1/2 acre); Asphalt/paved road access; Living area approximately 1,468 (from appraiser); total building area approximately 2,092 (public records)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Underground utilities; Water connected; Irrigation equipment
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; One story; Southeast-facing; Completed/new construction
• Construction: Block, concrete and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Block and slab foundation; Built as new construction
• Exterior features: Exterior lighting; Sliding doors; Other exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $278k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-45 ($-535/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $271k (2.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (27.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (27.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 5.0% in The Villages — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 705 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($274k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,258 (27.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.69%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $305,344
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16899 SE 96th Chapelwood Cir	0.43mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,452 (-1%)	0mo	$280,000	$193	73
16845 SE 93rd Cuthbert Cir	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,552 (+6%)	1mo	$327,000	$211	69
8702 SE 166th Birchbrook Loop	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,422 (-3%)	1mo	$375,000	$264	62
16840 SE 97th Wildwood Ct	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,527 (+4%)	14mo	$343,000	$225	57
16340 SE 89th Ct	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,421 (-3%)	22mo	$270,000	$190	56
9191 SE 171st Drayton Pl	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,510 (+3%)	10mo	$345,000	$228	56
16356 SE 87th Ave	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,621 (+10%)	3mo	$233,000	$144	49
16335 SE 88th Ave	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-11%)	9mo	$270,000	$208	49
9270 SE 157th Pl	0.72mi	3/3.0	1,630 (+11%)	1mo	$282,999	$174	44
9800 SE 167th Pl	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-12%)	14mo	$184,900	$143	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-48,094
• Equity at exit: $41,510

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-46,113
• Equity at exit: $24,071

Cash invested: $77,952 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34491

• Home prices YoY: -35.0%
• Active inventory: 705
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,023 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,460
• Tax from tax record: −$66 /mo · $797/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $-45

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,079

Max offer price $270,527

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,600
• Closing costs: $8,352
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9195 SE 163rd St Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,800	$1.28	21d	1	0.23mi
9523 SE 168th Maplesong Ln The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1265	$1,975	$1.56	21d	1	0.42mi
16962 SE 94th Sunnybrook Cir The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1160	$2,000	$1.72	21d	1	0.43mi
9990 SE 166th St Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	962	$1,395	$1.45	13d	1	0.69mi
9871 SE 161st Lane Rd Unit 0 Summerfield, FL	4.0	2.0	1827	$2,200	$1.20	21d	1	0.79mi
17199 SE 97th Ter Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1404	$1,990	$1.42	21d	1	0.86mi
8721 SE 157th St Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1236	$1,650	$1.33	21d	1	1.02mi
10326 SE 162nd Place Rd Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1419	$2,300	$1.62	13d	1	1.05mi
8364 SE 158th Pl Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1374	$2,000	$1.46	13d	1	1.12mi
8352 SE 158th Pl Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1232	$2,000	$1.62	13d	1	1.13mi
17582 SE 96th Ct Summerfield, FL	2.0	2.0	1652	$1,750	$1.06	21d	1	1.25mi
17532 SE 100th Ct Summerfield, FL	2.0	2.0	1217	$1,800	$1.48	21d	1	1.31mi
17713 SE 95th Cir Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,000	$1.38	21d	1	1.33mi
17324 SE 82nd Pecan Ter The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1358	$2,500	$1.84	21d	1	1.34mi
17400 SE 82nd Roslyn Ct The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1138	$4,700	$4.13	21d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $278,400 Pending 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $278,400 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $278,400 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $278,400 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $278,400 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $278,400 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $278,400 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $278,400 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $278,400 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $278,400 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-05-20
    listed $278,400 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $797 · $66/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,311 · $193/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,513/yr (+$126/mo · 189.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,271
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,595
• − Property taxes: −$797
• − Insurance: −$1,392
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,942
• − Management: −$1,942
• − Depreciation: −$8,099
• Taxable loss: −$5,495
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,319
• After-tax cash flow: $784/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 83,973
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,318
• Household income: $66,679
• Rent vs Own: 13.2% rent · 86.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 256.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 11% Vietnamese 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.67%
• Current HPI: 200.0792
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $278,400 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+28.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $797 · +65.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.