1500 Bay Area Blvd #118 · Houston, TX 77058

$82,500

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 712 sqft · Condo public records · 89 Days on market

Built 1978 $116/sqft · 7% below area Est $88k · 7% under $323/mo HOA · 32% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.4/15.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Smart money starts here. This beautifully updated 1BD/1BA ground-floor condo in the heart of the Bay Area corridor puts you 5 minutes from NASA/JSC, UH Clear Lake, I-45, shopping, and dining — with Galveston 40 minutes south and downtown Houston 30 minutes north. At under $85K, owning here costs the same as - or less than - renting. Inside, enjoy 712 sq ft of efficient, move-in ready living with a new stove and range hood, updated flooring, private patio, and a walk-in closet. The community features a sparkling pool and HOA coverage includes insurance, grounds-keeping, water and trash. Ground-floor access, low-maintenance living, unbeatable location. Powerfully guided into the right home. Beautifully sold on the value.

Key facts

• Ground-floor access
• Private patio
• Updated flooring

Tags

• GROUND-FLOOR ACCESS
• PRIVATE PATIO
• UPDATED FLOORING
• NEW STOVE AND RANGE HOOD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $82k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-149 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $56k (31.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $82k).
• Recommended offer: $56k (31.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Clear Creek ISD (suburban): math 48% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #114 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Falcon Pass El (math 52% / reading 56%, grade C, #664 of 4,322 statewide, top 16%, 573 students, 41% FRL); Space Center Int (math 31% / reading 44%, grade F, #736 of 1,662 statewide, top 45%, 827 students, 57% FRL); Clear Creek H S (math 51% / reading 54%, grade C-, #444 of 1,632 statewide, top 27%, 2,400 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 134 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.2%/yr); year-one equity from $570 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $19k; list at $82k implies a 334% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 32% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $56,198 (31.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 4.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.73%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $88,265
• List price: $82,500
• Delta: -6.53%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.22% appreciation · 1.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-17,349
• Equity at exit: $19,054

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-24,808
• Equity at exit: $19,284

Cash invested: $23,100 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77058

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 134
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,021 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$433
• Tax from tax record: −$166 /mo · $1,989/yr
• Insurance: −$34
• HOA: −$323
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$214
• Net cashflow: $-149

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,210

Max offer price $56,198

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-102	-5% $-126	+0% $-149	+5% $-172	+10% $-196
Rent	-10% $-230	-5% $-189	+0% $-149	+5% $-109	+10% $-68
Rate	-1.0pp $-107	-0.5pp $-128	base $-149	+0.5pp $-170	+1.0pp $-192

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,625
• Closing costs: $2,475
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1424 Gemini St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	730	$1,254	$1.72	20d	1	0.13mi
1245 Bay Area Blvd Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	508	$845	$1.66	45d	1	0.14mi
1245 Bay Area Blvd Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	508	$845	$1.66	23d	1	0.14mi
1620 Bay Area Blvd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	685	$1,137	$1.66	0d	23	0.21mi
1306 Gemini St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	660	$1,180	$1.79	45d	1	0.22mi
1707 Gemini St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	652	$940	$1.44	22d	1	0.25mi
1707 Gemini St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	652	$940	$1.44	20d	1	0.25mi
1239 Bay Area Blvd Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	670	$955	$1.43	14d	1	0.25mi
1239 Bay Area Blvd Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	670	$955	$1.43	26d	1	0.25mi
1300 Gemini St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	956	$1,028	$1.07	0d	30	0.28mi
2000 Bay Area Blvd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	841	$1,250	$1.48	0d	18	0.52mi
47 Buccaneer Ln Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	730	$935	$1.28	45d	1	0.53mi
47 Buccaneer Ln Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	730	$935	$1.28	18d	1	0.53mi
16457 El Camino Real Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	813	$859	$1.06	0d	27	0.57mi
16202 El Camino Real Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	700	$916	$1.31	17d	1	0.75mi
1400 El Camino Village Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1060	$1,279	$1.21	0d	33	0.77mi
16200 Center Blvd Spc Center Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	517	$826	$1.60	14d	1	0.81mi
16200 Center Blvd Unit 16221 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	682	$838	$1.23	14d	1	0.82mi
16200 Center Blvd Unit 16242 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	517	$783	$1.51	0d	1	0.82mi
16200 Center Blvd Unit 16274 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	517	$826	$1.60	0d	1	0.82mi
16200 Center Blvd Unit 1162 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	517	$837	$1.62	7d	1	0.82mi
16200 Center Blvd Unit 16251 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	682	$833	$1.22	45d	1	0.82mi
16200 Center Blvd Unit 1047 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	517	$867	$1.68	0d	1	0.82mi
16200 Center Blvd Unit 324 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	517	$837	$1.62	9d	1	0.82mi
16200 Center Blvd Unit 147 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	517	$783	$1.51	13d	1	0.82mi
16202 El Camino Real Unit 16253 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	700	$832	$1.19	45d	1	0.83mi
16100 Center Blvd Unit 16151 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	678	$925	$1.36	45d	1	0.83mi
16100 Center Blvd Spc Center Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	812	$763	$0.94	3d	12	0.84mi
16106 Center Blvd Spc Center Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	687	$920	$1.34	45d	1	0.84mi
17632 El Camino Real Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	649	$925	$1.43	20d	1	0.88mi
17632 El Camino Real Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	649	$925	$1.43	45d	1	0.88mi
17700 El Camino Real Houston, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	827	$1,149	$1.39	21d	17	0.89mi
17700 El Camino Real Unit 1162 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	649	$884	$1.36	7d	1	0.90mi
17700 El Camino Real Unit 17721 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	649	$919	$1.42	14d	1	0.90mi
17700 El Camino Real Unit 324 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	649	$884	$1.36	9d	1	0.90mi
17700 El Camino Real Unit 17751 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	649	$873	$1.35	14d	1	0.90mi
17700 El Camino Real Unit 17721 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	649	$873	$1.35	0d	1	0.90mi
17700 El Camino Real Unit 17742 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	419	$899	$2.15	0d	1	0.90mi
2323 Fairwind Dr #105 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	704	$1,400	$1.99	23d	1	0.92mi
525 Bay Area Blvd Unit 567 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	400	$933	$2.33	0d	1	0.94mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $323 · $3,876/yr
• Likely covers: watertrashlandscapingpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $82,500 Active 89 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $82,500 Active 86 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $82,500 Active 85 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $82,500 Active 84 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $82,500 Active 83 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $82,500 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $82,500 Active 80 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $82,500 Active 77 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $82,500 Active 76 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $82,500 Active 75 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $82,500 Active 72 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $82,500 Active 71 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $82,500 Active 70 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $82,500 Active 69 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $82,500 Active 68 DOM
16. 2026-05-07
    price $82,500 734-char remark

    Show marketing remark (734 chars)

    Smart money starts here. This beautifully updated 1BD/1BA ground-floor condo in the heart of the Bay Area corridor puts you 5 minutes from NASA/JSC, UH Clear Lake, I-45, shopping, and dining — with Galveston 40 minutes south and downtown Houston 30 minutes north. At under $85K, owning here costs the same as - or less than - renting. Inside, enjoy 712 sq ft of efficient, move-in ready living with a new stove and range hood, updated flooring, private patio, and a walk-in closet. The community features a sparkling pool and HOA coverage includes insurance, grounds-keeping, water and trash. Ground-floor access, low-maintenance living, unbeatable location. Powerfully guided into the right home. Beautifully sold on the value.

17. 2026-03-25
    listed $84,900 Active 734-char remark

    Show marketing remark (734 chars)

    Smart money starts here. This beautifully updated 1BD/1BA ground-floor condo in the heart of the Bay Area corridor puts you 5 minutes from NASA/JSC, UH Clear Lake, I-45, shopping, and dining — with Galveston 40 minutes south and downtown Houston 30 minutes north. At under $85K, owning here costs the same as - or less than - renting. Inside, enjoy 712 sq ft of efficient, move-in ready living with a new stove and range hood, updated flooring, private patio, and a walk-in closet. The community features a sparkling pool and HOA coverage includes insurance, grounds-keeping, water and trash. Ground-floor access, low-maintenance living, unbeatable location. Powerfully guided into the right home. Beautifully sold on the value.

18. 1997-12-15
    soldstatus $19,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,989 · $166/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,989 · $166/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,257
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,621
• − Property taxes: −$1,989
• − Insurance: −$412
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$981
• − Management: −$981
• − HOA: −$3,876
• − Depreciation: −$2,400
• Taxable loss: −$3,003
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$721
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,066/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clear Creek ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814280
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $80,240
• Composite: 46.49/100
• National rank: #2431
• State rank: #114 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,850
• Household income: $68,722
• Rent vs Own: 68.8% rent · 31.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1147.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 15% Asian 10% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Lithuanian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 5% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.22%
• Current HPI: 225.0251
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.92%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+334.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $82,500 HARMLS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $84,900 HARMLS
• 1997-12-15 Sold (Public Records) $19,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,989 · +10.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.