717 N Mcdowell Blvd #303 · Petaluma, CA 94954

$200,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 702 sqft · Manufactured · 16 Days on market

Built 2018

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Built in 2018, this beautifully maintained 2-bedroom, 1-bath manufactured home offers 702 sq ft of comfortable living in the all-age Capri Villa community. Features include an open floor plan, tray ceilings, recessed lighting, dual-pane windows, central heat, mini-split cooling, indoor laundry, and a spacious kitchen with abundant cabinetry and a gas range. Enjoy the large covered front porch, dedicated parking, storage/workshop space, and community pool. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, schools, and commuter routes. Move-in ready!

Key facts

• Central heat
• Open floor plan
• Mini-split cooling

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• TRAY CEILINGS
• RECESSED LIGHTING
• DUAL-PANE WINDOWS
• CENTRAL HEAT
• MINI-SPLIT COOLING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease amount applies
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking (2 spaces); Covered parking; Deck-level parking access
• Security: Carbon monoxide detector
• Utilities: Cable available; Internet available; Natural gas connected; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home in park; Single wide; Clayton (make); Karsten Homes (manufacturer); Wood skirting; Land lease; Not in a senior community
• Construction: Updated/remodeled
• Exterior features: Covered deck/patio; Carport awning; Covered deck; Storage area

Interior

• Kitchen: Free standing gas oven; Free standing refrigerator; Hood over range; Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with tub and shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Ductless cooling
• Interior features: Updated/remodeled condition; Carbon monoxide detector; Storage area
• Laundry & utility: Stacked washer/dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $562 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $197k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.2% vs local median 2.3% in Petaluma — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#33 in CA, #1,161 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Cinnabar Elementary (suburban): math 20% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #821 of 1,400 in CA (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 61 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,039 units permitted in Sonoma County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sonoma County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,000 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.17%
• DSCR: 1.94
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $48,438
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
537 Boxwood Dr	0.28mi	2/1.0	710 (+1%)	19mo	$35,000	$49	69
1003 Sonoma Ct	0.64mi	2/2.0	720 (+3%)	6mo	$50,000	$69	57
581 Mendocino Dr	0.53mi	2/2.0	720 (+3%)	15mo	$159,000	$221	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-2,894
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $19,107
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94954

• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 61
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,737 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $499/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$575
• Net cashflow: $562

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,026

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
333 N McDowell Blvd Petaluma, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	672	$2,141	$3.18	2d	7	0.83mi
1408 Mauro Pietro Dr Unit 7-202 Petaluma, CA	1.0	1.0	651	$2,199	$3.38	14d	1	0.84mi
1900 Sestri Ln Petaluma, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	716	$2,998	$4.19	2d	6	0.86mi
907 Mustang Ct Petaluma, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$2,550	$3.64	14d	1	1.25mi
104 Kent St Petaluma, CA	1.0	1.0	450	$2,050	$4.56	14d	1	1.33mi
55 Maria Dr Petaluma, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	957	$3,548	$3.71	14d	6	1.38mi
350 N Water St Petaluma, CA	2.0	1.0–2.5	860	$3,921	$4.56	2d	15	1.40mi
200 Greenbriar Cir Petaluma, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	794	$3,266	$4.11	14d	19	1.48mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $200,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $200,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $200,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $200,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $200,000 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    remarks 552-char remark
13. 2026-06-03
    listed $200,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $499 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,520 · $127/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,021/yr (+$85/mo · 204.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 20 unhealthy d/yr today · 20 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,838
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$499
• − Insurance: −$6,118
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,627
• − Management: −$2,627
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $3,945
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$947
• After-tax cash flow: $5,792/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cinnabar Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0608700
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $65,800
• Composite: 34.43/100
• National rank: #10166
• State rank: #821 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Petaluma

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #33
• US rank: #1161

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Petaluma, CA
• County: Sonoma County · 449,805 people
• City population: 71,359
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• Population (ZIP): 37,574
• Household income: $113,527
• Rent vs Own: 32.7% rent · 67.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1421.0

Population outlook (Sonoma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 539,935 people
• By 2030: 554,870 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 573,262 · +6.2%
• By 2050: 580,715 · +7.6%
• By 2075: 579,229 · +7.3%
• By 2100: 547,835 · +1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 16% Asian 4% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sonoma

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.2) · D 71.4% · R 25.2% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.4pp toward R · 2008: 49.6pp · 2024: 46.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.2 2020: D+51.5 2016: D+47.9 2012: D+44.9 2008: D+49.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -813.92%
• Current HPI: 245.4729
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.61%
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $200,000 BAREIS

Property tax history

-0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $499 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.