20 Norfolk Dr · Springs, NY 11937

$1,479,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily · 34 Days on market

Built 1975 0.40 ac lot $986/sqft · 11% below area Est $1669k · 11% under $32/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Tucked away on a quiet street in the heart of East Hampton, 20 Norfolk presents an opportunity to own a character-rich Hamptons retreat with pool and coveted private beach access. This distinctive home unfolds across five thoughtfully designed levels, offering a unique blend of space, charm, and versatility. Each floor reveals its own ambiance-ideal for both relaxed everyday living and effortless entertaining. At the top, a private primary suite serves as a true sanctuary, complete with a comfortable sitting area, generous closet space, and a well-appointed en-suite bath. The main living level is bright and inviting, with oversized windows that flood the home with natural light while highli

Key facts

• Private beach access
• Oversized windows
• 0.4 acre lot

Tags

• PRIVATE BEACH ACCESS
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• COMFORTABLE SITTING AREA
• GENEROUS CLOSET SPACE
• WELL-APPOINTED EN-SUITE BATH
• OVERSIZED WINDOWS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Has association (Clearwater); Annual association fee of $380; Association offers recreation facilities

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway (no carport)
• Utilities: Cesspool sewer; No utilities listed
• Home design: Single family residence; Living area reported from plans
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: In-ground vinyl pool; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total of 5 rooms (bedrooms included in room count)
• Flooring: Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (oil); Central air conditioning; 2 fireplaces
• Interior features: Galley-style kitchen; Natural woodwork
• Laundry & utility: Unfinished basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.48M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7k ($82k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($20k rent vs $1.48M).
• Recommended offer: $1.43M (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#809 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Springs Union Free School District (town): math 55% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #239 of 590 in NY (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Springs School (math 55% / reading 60%, grade C+, #839 of 2,108 statewide, top 40%, 689 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.3%/yr); 135 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $20,339/mo this rent would consume 188% of the median local household income ($130k/yr) (locally 896% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $10k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $44k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $414k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.43M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $765k; list at $1.48M implies a 93% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,434,630 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.83%
• DSCR: 1.88
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,669,065
• List price: $1,479,000
• Delta: -11.39%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18 Norfolk Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,500 (0%)	0mo	$1,180,000	$787	99
16 Lion Head Rock Rd	0.25mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,600 (+7%)	10mo	$1,850,000	$1,156	60
104 Pembroke Dr	0.26mi	3/3.0	1,697 (+13%)	14mo	$1,525,000	$899	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $303,456
• Equity at exit: $220,524

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.17×
• Total profit: $1,313,559
• Equity at exit: $127,877

Cash invested: $414,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11937

• Rents YoY: 12.3%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $20,339 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,756
• Tax from tax record: −$819 /mo · $9,828/yr
• Insurance: −$616
• HOA: −$32
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,271
• Net cashflow: $6,845

Break-even live

Break-even rent $11,675

Max offer price $1,479,000

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $369,750
• Closing costs: $44,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
135 Pembroke Dr East Hampton, NY	4.0	2.0	2000	$30,000	$15.00	24d	1	0.15mi
19 Pond Ln East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.0	1500	$85,000	$56.67	43d	1	0.56mi
1181 Springs Fireplace Rd East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.0	1600	$75,000	$46.88	43d	1	0.74mi
85 Camberly Rd East Hampton, NY	4.0	3.5	1700	$40,000	$23.53	24d	1	0.85mi
12 Maidstone Park Rd East Hampton, NY	3.0	3.5	1800	$75,000	$41.67	43d	1	1.13mi
12 Underwood Dr East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.0	1600	$30,000	$18.75	18d	1	1.20mi
197 Hog Creek Rd East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.0	1700	$20,000	$11.76	43d	1	1.30mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $32 · $384/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,479,000 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,479,000 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,479,000 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,479,000 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,479,000 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,479,000 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,479,000 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,479,000 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,479,000 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,479,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,479,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,479,000 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,479,000 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,479,000 Active 16 DOM
15. 2026-05-15
    listed $1,479,000 Active 1360-char remark
16. 2026-04-26
    historical
17. 2026-01-17
    price $1,524,000
18. 2025-11-12
    price $1,599,000
19. 2025-10-02
    price $1,625,000
20. 2025-09-02
    price $1,675,000
21. 2025-07-07
    price $1,750,000
22. 2025-05-03
    listed $1,825,000 Active
23. 2025-04-26
    historical
24. 2025-04-19
    historical $65,000
25. 2025-03-21
    price $65,000
26. 2024-11-26
    listed $85,000
27. 2024-11-26
    historical $85,000
28. 2024-10-24
    listed $85,000
29. 2006-08-11
    soldstatus $765,000
30. 2003-04-04
    soldstatus $500,000
31. 2000-06-22
    soldstatus $320,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $9,828 · $819/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $17,412 · $1,451/mo
• Expected delta: +$7,583/yr (+$632/mo · 77.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $244,070
• − Mortgage interest: −$82,847
• − Property taxes: −$9,828
• − Insurance: −$7,395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$19,526
• − Management: −$19,526
• − HOA: −$384
• − Depreciation: −$43,025
• Taxable income: $61,539
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$14,769
• After-tax cash flow: $67,366/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springs Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3627900
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $75,413
• Composite: 51.42/100
• National rank: #1728
• State rank: #239 of 590 in NY

Livability — Springs

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #809
• US rank: #15666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C- Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Springs, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 21,882
• Household income: $129,883
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 896.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 23% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Guatemala, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -285.21%
• Current HPI: 444.1499
• Rent YoY: ▲ 12.28%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+362.2% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $1,479,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-26 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-17 Price Changed $1,524,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-12 Price Changed $1,599,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-02 Price Changed $1,625,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-02 Price Changed $1,675,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-07 Price Changed $1,750,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-03 Listed $1,825,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-26 Coming Soon — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-19 Rental Removed $65,000 ONEKEY
• 2025-03-21 Price Changed $65,000 ONEKEY
• 2024-11-26 Listed for Rent $85,000 ONEKEY
• 2024-11-26 Rental Removed $85,000 ONEKEY
• 2024-10-24 Listed for Rent $85,000 ONEKEY
• 2006-08-11 Sold (Public Records) $765,000 Public Records
• 2003-04-04 Sold (Public Records) $500,000 Public Records
• 2000-06-22 Sold (Public Records) $320,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,828 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.