344 Timber Pass · Lincoln, AL 35096

$176,503

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,012 sqft · SingleFamily · 120 Days on market

Built 2026 Est $174k · at est. ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +6.9/15.0
• Appreciation +6.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Deer Creek, a new Lennar community in Lincoln, AL! Enjoy modern living with Lennar’s Everything’s Included® features—luxury finishes, stainless appliances, smart-home technology, and energy efficiency throughout. Conveniently located near Lake Logan Martin, Top Trails OHV Park, Talladega Superspeedway, and downtown Lincoln, with easy access to I-20 for commuting to Birmingham or Oxford. Embrace the charm of the RC Carlie ll plan, a 3-bedroom, 2-bath home designed for seamless living. Its open floor plan encourages easy interactions, while the covered entry enhances curb appeal and makes a stylish entrance statement. Relax in the spacious living area and savo

Key facts

• Modern living
• Luxury finishes
• Stainless appliances

Tags

• MODERN LIVING
• LUXURY FINISHES
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• SMART-HOME TECHNOLOGY
• ENERGY EFFICIENCY
• COVERED ENTRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $177k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-112 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $160k (9.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $149k (15.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $149k (15.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.2% in Lincoln — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#230 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Talladega County (rural): math 15% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #75 of 129 in AL (top 58%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lincoln Elementary School (math 20% / reading 48%, grade F, #311 of 627 statewide, top 50%, 853 students, 62% FRL); Lincoln High School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #169 of 305 statewide, top 59%, 585 students, 68% FRL) — zoned schools at 65% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 230 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 189 units permitted in Talladega County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Talladega County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($161k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $31k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $148,700 (15.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.09%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $174,064
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
344 Timber Pass	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,012 (0%)	1mo	$181,793	$180	99
25 Greer St	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,147 (+13%)	4mo	$193,500	$169	62
69 Greer St	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,147 (+13%)	3mo	$197,000	$172	61
709 Antler Way	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,012 (0%)	18mo	$192,126	$190	60
59 Greer St	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,146 (+13%)	6mo	$192,000	$168	59
651 Antler Way	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,068 (+6%)	14mo	$210,213	$197	59
784 Antler Way	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,068 (+6%)	19mo	$199,900	$187	58
64 Jacob Ln	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,118 (+10%)	3mo	$159,900	$143	55
94 Jackson Ln	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,118 (+10%)	3mo	$159,900	$143	55
76 Shaley St	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,142 (+13%)	15mo	$175,000	$153	50
760 Antler Way	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,143 (+13%)	20mo	$199,900	$175	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.96% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $13,847
• Equity at exit: $78,962

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.21×
• Total profit: $59,830
• Equity at exit: $121,380

Cash invested: $49,421 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35096

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 230
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,487 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$926
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$221 /mo · $2,648/yr
• Insurance: −$74
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $-112

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,628

Max offer price $160,369

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $10	-5% $-51	+0% $-112	+5% $-172	+10% $-233
Rent	-10% $-229	-5% $-170	+0% $-112	+5% $-53	+10% $6
Rate	-1.0pp $-23	-0.5pp $-67	base $-112	+0.5pp $-157	+1.0pp $-204

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,126
• Closing costs: $5,295
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
67 Wilson Way Lincoln, AL	3.0	2.0	1464	$1,595	$1.09	45d	1	0.79mi
2316 Speedway Blvd Lincoln, AL	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1500	$1,295	$0.86	13d	3	1.37mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-26
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-19
   price $176,503
3. 2026-03-28
   price $184,793
4. 2026-03-08
   price $187,940
5. 2026-03-04
   price $199,830
6. 2026-03-03
   status Active
7. 2026-01-28
   status Pending
8. 2025-11-22
   listed $207,580 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,844
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,887
• − Property taxes: −$2,648
• − Insurance: −$1,680
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,428
• − Management: −$1,428
• − Depreciation: −$5,135
• Taxable loss: −$4,360
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,046
• After-tax cash flow: $-292/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Talladega County
• NCES district ID: 0103180
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $37,715
• Composite: 24.5/100
• National rank: #7650
• State rank: #75 of 129 in AL

Livability — Lincoln

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #230
• US rank: #17221

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 9,201
• Population (ZIP): 9,201

Population outlook (Talladega County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 78,905 people
• By 2030: 77,160 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 72,937 · -7.6%
• By 2050: 68,279 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 57,884 · -26.6%
• By 2100: 47,220 · -40.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 19% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Vietnamese 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Talladega

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.8) · D 32.9% · R 66.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.3pp toward R · 2008: -18.5pp · 2024: -33.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.8 2020: R+25.5 2016: R+25.6 2012: R+16.0 2008: R+18.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.96%
• Current HPI: 255.9195
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-15.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Pending — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-04-19 Price Changed $176,503 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $184,793 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-03-08 Price Changed $187,940 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $199,830 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-03-03 Relisted — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-01-28 Pending — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-11-22 Listed $207,580 Greater Alabama MLS