7923 Stork Rd · Hybla Valley, VA 22306

$139,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Manufactured · 32 Days on market

Built 1976 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Address: 7923 Stork Rd, Alexandria, VA 22306. Nestled in the serene enclave of Audubon Estates, this charming residence offers a unique blend of comfort and character. With three spacious bedrooms and two full bathrooms, this home is designed for both relaxation and entertaining. The open layout invites natural light to dance through the living spaces, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere. The heart of the home features a thoughtfully designed kitchen, perfect for culinary enthusiasts, while the adjoining living area provides a cozy retreat for gatherings with loved ones. Each bedroom offers a peaceful sanctuary, ensuring restful nights and rejuvenating mornings. The property boasts an a

Key facts

• 3 parking spots
• Built 1976
• Listed 31 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property manager present; Income/expense listing references annual ground rent
• Financial info: Ground rent: $1,260 monthly; Annual tax amount reported (see records)

Exterior

• Parking: Asphalt driveway; Parking lot with 3 spaces (total 3 garage/parking spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service for heating, cooling, and hot water
• Home design: Modular / Manufactured home; Mobile (pre-1976) structure
• Construction: Rubber roof; Above-grade other structures noted
• Exterior features: Not in a federal flood zone; Ground rent exists (paid monthly)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric); Electric hot water
• Interior features: No basement; Living area reported as estimated; 32"+ wide doors (accessibility feature)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $853 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.6% vs local median 2.5% in Hybla Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#76 in VA, #2,490 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, crime B+; Watch: schools F, cost of living F.
• Fairfax County Public School District (suburban): math 61% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #13 of 131 in VA (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 83 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,861 units permitted in Fairfax County in 2024 (1,829 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fairfax County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,703 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.65% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.13%
• DSCR: 2.16
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.64×
• Total profit: $24,945
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.68×
• Total profit: $65,732
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22306

• Rents YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,304 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$175 /mo · $2,098/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$484
• Net cashflow: $853

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,224

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $950	-5% $901	+0% $853	+5% $805	+10% $756
Rent	-10% $671	-5% $762	+0% $853	+5% $944	+10% $1,035
Rate	-1.0pp $923	-0.5pp $889	base $853	+0.5pp $817	+1.0pp $780

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7965 Audubon Ave Alexandria, VA	2.0	2.0	886	$2,050	$2.31	44d	1	0.19mi
7984 Audubon Ave #203 Alexandria, VA	2.0	1.5	886	$2,225	$2.51	23d	1	0.20mi
8048 Pantano Pl #8 Alexandria, VA	2.0	1.5	1058	$2,300	$2.17	45d	1	0.33mi
8077 Pantano Pl Alexandria, VA	2.0	2.0	1022	$2,100	$2.05	44d	1	0.33mi
3808 Laramie Pl Unit 126F Alexandria, VA	2.0	1.5	957	$1,800	$1.88	19d	1	0.37mi
3808 Laramie Pl Unit 126F Alexandria, VA	2.0	1.5	957	$2,150	$2.25	44d	1	0.37mi
7943 San Leandro Pl Unit 1 Alexandria, VA	2.0	1.5	1100	$2,100	$1.91	44d	1	0.44mi
8374 Hunter Murphy Cir Alexandria, VA	3.0	2.5	1088	$3,100	$2.85	19d	1	0.65mi
7918 Martha Washington St Alexandria, VA	3.0	1.0	936	$3,700	$3.95	44d	1	0.69mi
7505 Calderon Ct Unit J Alexandria, VA	2.0	2.0	1120	$2,200	$1.96	6d	1	0.72mi
7530 Coxton Ct #112 Alexandria, VA	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,500	$2.27	0d	1	0.77mi
3204 Beechcraft Dr Alexandria, VA	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,700	$1.55	44d	1	0.83mi
2722 Arlington Dr Alexandria, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	910	$2,390	$2.63	0d	81	1.06mi
3308 Lockheed Blvd Alexandria, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0	900	$1,829	$2.03	11d	18	1.16mi
4324 Pembrook Village Dr #23 Alexandria, VA	2.0	2.0	1090	$2,200	$2.02	4d	1	1.24mi
7300 Jon Paul Dr Alexandria, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0	735	$1,995	$2.71	3d	7	1.24mi
4327 Pembrook Village Dr #20 Alexandria, VA	2.0	2.0	1094	$2,350	$2.15	13d	1	1.25mi
4356 Pembrook Village Dr #65 Alexandria, VA	2.0	2.0	1087	$2,200	$2.02	18d	1	1.27mi
7136 Groveton Gardens Rd Alexandria, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	909	$2,463	$2.71	23d	1	1.27mi
4339 Pembrook Village Dr #32 Alexandria, VA	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,500	$2.27	5d	1	1.28mi
4410 Pembrook Village Dr #119 Alexandria, VA	2.0	2.0	1097	$1,950	$1.78	44d	1	1.33mi
7131 Richmond Hwy Alexandria, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	838	$3,002	$3.58	0d	14	1.38mi
4511 Colony Ct Alexandria, VA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	981	$2,650	$2.70	9d	11	1.49mi
4511 Colony Ct Unit 1203-B Alexandria, VA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	981	$2,650	$2.70	6d	11	1.49mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $139,900 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,900 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,900 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,900 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,900 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,900 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $139,900 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,900 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,900 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,900 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 11 DOM
16. 2026-05-21
    listed $139,900 Active
17. 2026-05-19
    historical $139,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 19% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,643
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$2,098
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,211
• − Management: −$2,211
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable income: $8,516
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,044
• After-tax cash flow: $8,193/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 17 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with recent updates, making it a solid investment opportunity with potential for further value enhancement.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves functionality and aesthetics
• Both New countertops in kitchen — Enhances functionality and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New countertops in kitchen — Enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fairfax County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101260
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $110,238
• Composite: 62.59/100
• National rank: #679
• State rank: #13 of 131 in VA

Livability — Hybla Valley

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #76
• US rank: #2490

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment C+ Housing C Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hybla Valley, VA
• County: Fairfax County · 1,104,456 people
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 30,602
• Household income: $97,132
• Rent vs Own: 49.6% rent · 50.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 975.0

Population outlook (Fairfax County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,237,259 people
• By 2030: 1,277,758 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,346,508 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 1,397,919 · +13.0%
• By 2075: 1,493,100 · +20.7%
• By 2100: 1,465,712 · +18.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 35% White 29% Black 21% Two or more races 13% Asian 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 33% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 32% Other Indo-European 6% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fairfax

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+35.0) · D 66.1% · R 31.1% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +13.8pp toward D · 2008: 21.2pp · 2024: 35.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+35.0 2020: D+41.9 2016: D+36.2 2012: D+19.8 2008: D+21.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -408.72%
• Current HPI: 335.6701
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.59%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $139,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-19 Coming Soon $139,900 BRIGHT MLS