13207 Davenport Hills Ln · Atascocita, TX 77346

$312,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,871 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 2013 5,475 sqft lot Est $451k · 31% under $81/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 15% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in the Eagle Springs community, this 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offers comfort, convenience, and energy efficiency. Spacious living areas and a functional layout, this home is perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Enjoy the added benefit of solar panels for improved energy efficiency and lower utility costs. Conveniently situated with quick access to shopping centers, restaurants, schools (Buyer to verify eligibility and attendance), and parks, this home combines a great location with everyday practicality.

Key facts

• Solar panels
• 5,475 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• EAGLE SPRINGS COMMUNITY
• SOLAR PANELS
• QUICK ACCESS TO RESTAURANTS
• QUICK ACCESS TO SCHOOLS
• QUICK ACCESS TO PARKS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association managed by Crest Management; Annual association fee of $975; HOA includes clubhouse and recreation facilities; Community features include curbs

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Driveway; Additional parking; Garage door opener
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Faces south; Full ownership; Slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 2013; Brick and vinyl siding exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Fully fenced backyard; Back yard fencing; Subdivision setting; Concrete road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Up to 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Granite counters; Kitchen island; Kitchen and family room combo; Kitchen and dining combo; Pantry; Primary bedroom with bath; Separate shower; Tub with shower; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $313k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-324 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $256k (18.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $301k (3.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $256k (18.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 4.0% in Atascocita — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#346 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Atascocita Springs El (math 44% / reading 51%, grade D, #989 of 4,322 statewide, top 23%, 989 students, 37% FRL); West Lake Middle (math 39% / reading 43%, grade F, #613 of 1,662 statewide, top 38%, 1,586 students, 33% FRL); Atascocita H S (math 41% / reading 52%, grade D-, #621 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 3,829 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 681 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($304k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $255,680 (18.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.44%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $450,747
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13202 Clover Creek Point Ln	0.12mi	4/3.5	2,524 (-12%)	1mo	$375,000	$149	70
12919 Palm Leaf Ct	0.73mi	4/2.5	2,863 (-0%)	3mo	$229,900	$80	63
13103 Six Rivers Dr	0.54mi	4/3.0	3,043 (+6%)	1mo	$479,000	$157	62
17315 Cumberland Park Ln	0.55mi	4/3.5	3,082 (+7%)	2mo	$440,000	$143	56
17103 Mount Loretto Ct	0.71mi	4/3.0	2,697 (-6%)	1mo	$439,900	$163	54
17222 Blanton Forest Dr	0.50mi	4/3.5	3,178 (+11%)	2mo	$549,500	$173	53
12606 Woodbourne Forest Dr	0.65mi	4/3.0	2,634 (-8%)	4mo	$455,000	$173	50
17611 Fossil Ridge Ln	0.52mi	4/3.5	3,242 (+13%)	0mo	$475,000	$147	50
17335 Lake Clark Ln	0.65mi	4/3.5	3,147 (+10%)	2mo	$359,900	$114	48
12607 Pine Savannah Ln	0.71mi	4/3.0	3,145 (+10%)	3mo	$480,000	$153	46
13018 Sierra National Dr	0.63mi	4/3.0	2,474 (-14%)	4mo	$405,000	$164	42
12510 Pierson Hollow Dr	0.72mi	4/3.0	2,453 (-15%)	3mo	$400,000	$163	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.95% appreciation · 0.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-51,779
• Equity at exit: $76,241

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-77,196
• Equity at exit: $80,647

Cash invested: $87,637 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77346

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 681
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,015 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,641
• Tax from tax record: −$853 /mo · $10,238/yr
• Insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$81
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$633
• Net cashflow: $-324

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,425

Max offer price $255,680

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-147	-5% $-236	+0% $-324	+5% $-413	+10% $-502
Rent	-10% $-563	-5% $-443	+0% $-324	+5% $-205	+10% $-86
Rate	-1.0pp $-167	-0.5pp $-245	base $-324	+0.5pp $-406	+1.0pp $-488

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,248
• Closing costs: $9,390
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16807 Hemlock Grove Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2476	$3,100	$1.25	45d	1	0.43mi
12643 Jamestown Crossing Ln Humble, TX	4.0	2.0	2450	$4,995	$2.04	25d	1	0.49mi
12323 Crescent Mountain Ln Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	2358	$2,231	$0.95	0d	1	0.87mi
17923 Diamond Peak Ct Humble, TX	4.0	2.0	2171	$2,306	$1.06	0d	1	0.88mi
16614 Spirit Lake Ct Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2374	$2,395	$1.01	25d	1	0.94mi
18103 Yellowstone Trl Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2602	$2,371	$0.91	45d	1	1.09mi
16411 Little Pine Creek Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2646	$2,871	$1.09	0d	1	1.12mi
13513 Northline Lake Dr Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	2034	$2,800	$1.38	45d	1	1.12mi
15614 Countesswells Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2620	$3,150	$1.20	4d	1	1.26mi
15614 Countesswells Dr Unit NA Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2620	$3,350	$1.28	45d	1	1.26mi
12731 Arcola Valley Ct Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	2663	$2,676	$1.00	0d	1	1.44mi
12214 Landsdown Ridge Way Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2389	$2,165	$0.91	12d	1	1.45mi
18123 Noble Forest Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2328	$2,595	$1.11	6d	1	1.45mi
18406 S Roaring River Ct Humble, TX	4.0	4.0	3319	$3,600	$1.08	45d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $81 · $972/yr

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $312,990 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $312,990 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $312,990 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $312,990 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $312,990 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $312,990 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $312,990 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $312,990 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $312,990 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $312,990 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $312,990 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $312,990 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $312,990 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $312,990 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $312,990 Active 11 DOM
16. 2026-05-20
    listed $312,990 Active
17. 2025-08-07
    historical
18. 2025-04-17
    listed $345,000 Active
19. 2025-04-09
    historical
20. 2025-02-14
    listed $350,000 Active
21. 2025-02-13
    historical
22. 2025-01-02
    historical
23. 2024-11-05
    price $335,000
24. 2024-10-09
    price $345,000
25. 2024-09-12
    price $350,000
26. 2024-09-07
    price $354,000
27. 2024-08-29
    price $359,000
28. 2024-07-05
    listed $370,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $10,238 · $853/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,238 · $853/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,174
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,532
• − Property taxes: −$10,238
• − Insurance: −$1,565
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,894
• − Management: −$2,894
• − HOA: −$972
• − Depreciation: −$9,105
• Taxable loss: −$9,026
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,166
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,727/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Atascocita

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #7586

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atascocita, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 79,538
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 79,538
• Household income: $122,241
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1072.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 21% Two or more races 18% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Current HPI: 218.0478
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-15.4% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $312,990 HARMLS
• 2025-08-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-04-17 Listed $345,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-02-14 Listed $350,000 HARMLS
• 2025-02-13 Coming Soon — HARMLS
• 2025-01-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-11-05 Price Changed $335,000 HARMLS
• 2024-10-09 Price Changed $345,000 HARMLS
• 2024-09-12 Price Changed $350,000 HARMLS
• 2024-09-07 Price Changed $354,000 HARMLS
• 2024-08-29 Price Changed $359,000 HARMLS
• 2024-07-05 Listed $370,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+21.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,238 · -2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.