16711 Marsh Creek Rd #150 · Antioch, CA 94517

$289,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 92 Days on market

Est $255k · 13% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.5/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Super Value! This mobile home is like new. This house has many upgrades. Upgrade Kitchen, tile, fresh paint inside and outside. Great and quiet neighborhood!

Key facts

• Community pool
• Listed 92 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Park community with shared amenities (pool, playground, greenbelt, BBQ area)

Exterior

• Parking: Covered carport for 2 or more vehicles
• Utilities: Water and sewer: community services; Power: standard utility connections
• Home design: Manufactured in park (mobile home); Double wide model (Tempo Series); Faces northwest; Corner, premium lot
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Lap skirt (skirting)
• Exterior features: Deck; Front porch; Garden/play area; Low-maintenance landscaping; Community pool (in-ground, private within community); Community BBQ area; Playground; Greenbelt

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen; Laminate countertops; Dishwasher; Electric range
• Bedrooms: 7 total rooms (includes den and family room)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms (both full)
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Den; Family room; Sun porch
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $289k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $289k).
• Recommended offer: $263k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 3.9% in Antioch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#782 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Brentwood Union Elementary (suburban): math 51% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #268 of 1,400 in CA (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $81k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $289k implies a 382% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $262,990 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.05%
• DSCR: 1.76
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $254,880
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16711 Marsh Creek Rd #52	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,416 (-2%)	15mo	$250,000	$177	84
16711 Marsh Creek Rd #88	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,368 (-5%)	14mo	$185,000	$135	80
16711 Marsh Creek Rd #68	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,404 (-2%)	8mo	$260,000	$185	80
16711 Marsh Creek Rd #175	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,460 (+1%)	17mo	$216,000	$148	78
16711 Marsh Creek Rd #66	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,352 (-6%)	10mo	$255,000	$189	76
16711 Marsh Creek Rd #126	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-10%)	10mo	$182,000	$140	76
16711 Marsh Creek Rd #65	0.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,426 (-1%)	18mo	$249,999	$175	74
16711 Marsh Creek Rd #63	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-10%)	14mo	$245,000	$188	72
16711 Marsh Creek Rd #29	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,558 (+8%)	20mo	$240,000	$154	69
16711 Marsh Creek Rd #135	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	20mo	$221,000	$177	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $22,123
• Equity at exit: $43,091

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.33×
• Total profit: $107,896
• Equity at exit: $24,987

Cash invested: $80,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94517

• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,669 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,516
• Tax from tax record: −$112 /mo · $1,349/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$770
• Net cashflow: $1,084

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,297

Max offer price $289,000

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,250
• Closing costs: $8,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $289,000 Active 92 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,000 Active 91 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,000 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,000 Active 89 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,000 Active 87 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,000 Active 86 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $289,000 Active 83 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $289,000 Active 82 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $289,000 Active 81 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $289,000 Active 78 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $289,000 Active 77 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $289,000 Active 76 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $289,000 Active 75 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $289,000 Active 74 DOM
15. 2026-03-18
    listed $289,000 Active
16. 2026-03-18
    historical
17. 2026-01-13
    listed Active
18. 2006-09-30
    soldstatus $60,000 158-char remark

    Show marketing remark (158 chars)

    Super Value! This mobile home is like new. This house has many upgrades. Upgrade Kitchen, tile, fresh paint inside and outside. Great and quiet neighborhood!

19. 2006-08-16
    historical 158-char remark

    Show marketing remark (158 chars)

    Super Value! This mobile home is like new. This house has many upgrades. Upgrade Kitchen, tile, fresh paint inside and outside. Great and quiet neighborhood!

20. 2006-08-05
    listed $63,000 158-char remark

    Show marketing remark (158 chars)

    Super Value! This mobile home is like new. This house has many upgrades. Upgrade Kitchen, tile, fresh paint inside and outside. Great and quiet neighborhood!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,349 · $112/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,196 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: +$847/yr (+$71/mo · 62.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 17 unhealthy d/yr today · 18 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,026
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,188
• − Property taxes: −$1,349
• − Insurance: −$2,242
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,522
• − Management: −$3,522
• − Depreciation: −$8,407
• Taxable income: $8,794
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,111
• After-tax cash flow: $10,892/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brentwood Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0605910
• Math proficiency: 51% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $91,644
• Composite: 52.7/100
• National rank: #3320
• State rank: #268 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Antioch

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #782
• US rank: #22472

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 116,477
• Population (ZIP): 12,164

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 13% Asian 11% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, Philippines
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -693.84%
• Current HPI: 144.7139
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+358.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Listed $289,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-03-18 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-01-13 Listed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2006-09-30 Sold (MLS) $60,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2006-08-16 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2006-08-05 Listed $63,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

+17.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,349 · +1306.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.