1538 Briarbank Dr · Sugar Land, TX 77498

$194,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,795 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1974 10,711 sqft lot Est $305k · 36% under $19/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Three bedroom, two bath home with a two-car detached garage located in an established neighborhood within Sugar Land.

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1974

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community: COVINGTON WOODS; Annual association fee of $232

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1974; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (16 x 14); Bedroom on the first floor (13 x 12); Bedroom on the first floor (12 x 11)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central gas heating; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: One fireplace; 3 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $170 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).
• Recommended offer: $192k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 2.6% in Sugar Land — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#38 in TX, #1,758 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D, commute F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sugar Mill El (math 47% / reading 51%, grade D, #926 of 4,322 statewide, top 22%, 640 students, 56% FRL); Sugar Land Middle (math 30% / reading 40%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 1,050 students, 65% FRL); Kempner H S (math 35% / reading 56%, grade D-, #634 of 1,632 statewide, top 39%, 1,945 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 35% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 278 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($192k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $191,976 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.74%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $305,150
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1307 Hitherfield Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,827 (+2%)	1mo	$189,900	$104	85
13807 Imperial Ct	0.13mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,860 (+4%)	2mo	$335,000	$180	79
1231 Bramblebury Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,750 (-2%)	1mo	$299,900	$171	74
1310 Barrowgate Dr	0.39mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,764 (-2%)	1mo	$299,000	$170	73
1119 Pinecroft Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,824 (+2%)	2mo	$199,000	$109	71
1139 Pinecroft Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,724 (-4%)	1mo	$199,900	$116	70
13547 Brook Hollow Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,915 (+7%)	3mo	$349,000	$182	66
14207 Greenway Drive Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,593 (-11%)	3mo	$150,000	$94	62
13622 Cherrydown St	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,684 (-6%)	1mo	$262,000	$156	58
13719 Oakwood Ln	0.21mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,052 (+14%)	3mo	$299,000	$146	57
1142 Pinecroft Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,571 (-12%)	2mo	$275,000	$175	56
1103 Ashdale Dr	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,684 (-6%)	4mo	$292,000	$173	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-25,625
• Equity at exit: $29,060

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-27,389
• Equity at exit: $16,851

Cash invested: $54,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77498

• Home prices YoY: -10.6%
• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 278
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,128 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,022
• Tax from tax record: −$389 /mo · $4,668/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$19
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$447
• Net cashflow: $170

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,913

Max offer price $194,900

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $280	-5% $225	+0% $170	+5% $115	+10% $60
Rent	-10% $2	-5% $86	+0% $170	+5% $254	+10% $338
Rate	-1.0pp $268	-0.5pp $219	base $170	+0.5pp $119	+1.0pp $68

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,725
• Closing costs: $5,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1911 Michele Dr Sugar Land, TX	3.0	2.0	1736	$2,100	$1.21	3d	1	0.43mi
13935 Charterhouse Way Sugar Land, TX	4.0	2.0	2232	$2,500	$1.12	44d	1	0.51mi
14810 Horse Creek Ln Sugar Land, TX	4.0	3.0	2600	$2,400	$0.92	44d	1	0.74mi
10811 Forest Leaf Dr Sugar Land, TX	3.0	2.0	1383	$1,766	$1.28	44d	1	1.19mi
15015 W Airport Blvd Sugar Land, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1001	$1,897	$1.90	0d	32	1.21mi
2414 Chelston Ct Sugar Land, TX	3.0	2.0	1736	$2,198	$1.27	3d	1	1.21mi
12826 Careywood Dr Sugar Land, TX	3.0	2.0	1836	$2,200	$1.20	12d	1	1.24mi
15000 W Airport Blvd Sugar Land, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1001	$1,885	$1.88	0d	13	1.28mi
10527 Westedge Dr Sugar Land, TX	4.0	2.0	1604	$1,800	$1.12	44d	1	1.44mi
12100 S Texas 6 Unit 12133 Sugar Land, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,329	$1.79	11d	1	1.45mi
12100 S Texas 6 Unit 2188 Sugar Land, TX	2.0	2.0	1298	$1,556	$1.20	44d	1	1.45mi
12100 S Texas 6 Unit 2538 Sugar Land, TX	2.0	2.0	1286	$1,652	$1.28	44d	1	1.45mi
15270 Voss Rd Sugar Land, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	943	$1,662	$1.76	0d	19	1.45mi
12100 S Texas 6 #3165 Sugar Land, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,289	$1.76	0d	1	1.46mi
12100 S Texas 6 #3047 Sugar Land, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,340	$1.80	0d	1	1.46mi
10515 Long River Dr Sugar Land, TX	3.0	2.0	1584	$1,695	$1.07	23d	1	1.48mi
10411 Cedartowne Ln Sugar Land, TX	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,756	$1.35	23d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $19 · $228/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $194,900 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $194,900 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $194,900 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $194,900 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $194,900 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $194,900 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $194,900 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $194,900 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 117-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $194,900 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,668 · $389/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,668 · $389/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,537
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,917
• − Property taxes: −$4,668
• − Insurance: −$974
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,043
• − Management: −$2,043
• − HOA: −$228
• − Depreciation: −$5,670
• Taxable loss: −$1,006
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$242
• After-tax cash flow: $2,281/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sugar Land

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #38
• US rank: #1758

Category grades

Amenities A Commute F Cost of living D Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sugar Land, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 168,209
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,806
• Household income: $100,950
• Rent vs Own: 29.4% rent · 70.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1252.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.76)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 28% White 27% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 20% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Ukrainian 1% Arab 1%
• Foreign-born: 33% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 10% Vietnamese 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -29.01%
• Current HPI: 245.1437
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.61%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-18.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $194,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-14 Listed $238,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-29 Listed $238,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-02-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,668 · -7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.