15468 Atwater Dr · Spring Hill, FL 34604

$195,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 973 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 82 Days on market

Built 1983 8,250 sqft lot Est $157k · 24% over $45/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Virtually Staged. SELLER MOTIVATED! NEW PRICE! NEW PAINT! Welcome to the best value 2-bedroom, 2-bath home in the area. This cute home is priced to personalize. Nestled in a quiet, well-kept neighborhood. This inviting single-story residence with handicap amenities offers a comfortable layout perfect for first-time buyers, down-sizers, or anyone seeking low-maintenance living. This home offers lots of natural lighting. Enjoy peaceful surroundings with open green space, community clubhouse/pool conveniently located directly across the street—perfect for relaxing or entertaining without the upkeep. The property features added privacy with neighbor

Key facts

• Natural lighting
• Community clubhouse
• Open green space

Tags

• COMMUNITY CLUBHOUSE
• SCREENED IN LANAI
• OPEN GREEN SPACE
• NATURAL LIGHTING
• SERENE BACKDROP

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Solar energy generation; Quarterly association fee required
• HOA & community: Has HOA; monthly HOA $45 (quarterly fee shown as $135); Community amenities include clubhouse, pool, fitness center, tennis courts, basketball court, recreation facilities, dog park, park, sidewalks, and street lights; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Phone available; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Accessible approach with ramp and accessible entrance; Faces north; Residential property
• Construction: Stucco and frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on a 0.19-acre lot
• Exterior features: Rear screened porch; Sidewalk; Sliding doors

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Thermostat; Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup (electric); Laundry in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5 ($-55/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $194k (0.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $154k (20.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $154k (20.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.4% in Spring Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#738 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Hernando (suburban): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #38 of 73 in FL (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Nature Coast Technical High (math 52% / reading 51%, grade D+, #167 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 1,298 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 38% FRL vs 55% district-wide (17 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 196 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,505 units permitted in Hernando County in 2024 (318 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hernando County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $56k; list at $195k implies a 251% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,439 (20.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.10%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $156,653
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16172 Chancas St	0.62mi	2/2.0	960 (-1%)	0mo	$140,000	$146	68
4307 Orlando Ave	0.68mi	2/2.0	910 (-6%)	19mo	$143,000	$157	41
16066 Narrow St	0.60mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,067 (+10%)	16mo	$198,000	$186	38
16130 Schaffer St	0.53mi	2/2.0	840 (-14%)	18mo	$134,900	$161	38
16076 Narrow St	0.61mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,067 (+10%)	16mo	$195,000	$183	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-34,072
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-38,758
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34604

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 196
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,544 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $909/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$45
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$324
• Net cashflow: $-5

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,550

Max offer price $194,192

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $106	-5% $51	+0% $-5	+5% $-60	+10% $-115
Rent	-10% $-127	-5% $-66	+0% $-5	+5% $56	+10% $117
Rate	-1.0pp $94	-0.5pp $45	base $-5	+0.5pp $-55	+1.0pp $-107

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
286 Cherry Birch LN Masaryktown, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	964	$1,702	$1.77	0d	44	0.82mi
16108 Putnam St Brooksville, FL	1.0	1.0	960	$1,000	$1.04	19d	1	0.88mi
3454 Suncoast Villa Way Spring Hill, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1275	$1,720	$1.35	4d	44	1.21mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $45 · $540/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $195,000 Pending 82 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 81 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 80 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 79 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 78 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 76 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 75 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Active 72 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,000 Active 71 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    price $195,000 Active 70 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $214,900 Active 70 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $214,900 Active 67 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $214,900 Active 66 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $214,900 Active 65 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $214,900 Active 64 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $214,900 Active 63 DOM
17. 2026-05-23
    price $214,900
18. 2026-03-29
    listed $225,000 Active
19. 1999-10-27
    soldstatus $55,500
20. 1998-05-08
    soldstatus $52,500
21. 1994-06-30
    soldstatus $52,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $909 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,618 · $135/mo
• Expected delta: +$709/yr (+$59/mo · 78.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,533
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$909
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,483
• − Management: −$1,483
• − HOA: −$540
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$3,453
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$829
• After-tax cash flow: $774/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hernando
• NCES district ID: 1200810
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,985
• Composite: 42.03/100
• National rank: #3329
• State rank: #38 of 73 in FL

Livability — Spring Hill

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #738
• US rank: #15937

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spring Hill, FL
• County: Hernando County · 169,677 people
• City population: 83,915
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 13,642
• Household income: $84,833
• Rent vs Own: 8.5% rent · 91.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 142.0

Population outlook (Hernando County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 189,218 people
• By 2030: 194,367 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 203,398 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 209,589 · +10.8%
• By 2075: 218,452 · +15.4%
• By 2100: 205,923 · +8.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 10% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hernando

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.0) · D 31.1% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.5pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -37.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.0 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+29.0 2012: R+8.5 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.38%
• Current HPI: 276.4751
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.61%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+306.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Price Changed $214,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-29 Listed $225,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-10-27 Sold (Public Records) $55,500 Public Records
• 1998-05-08 Sold (Public Records) $52,500 Public Records
• 1994-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $52,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $909 · -0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.