2806 Cramer Dr E · Hope Mills, NC 28306

$208,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,050 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 173 Days on market

Built 1973 Est $202k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• ARV discount +6.1/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Cozy 3-bedroom, 1.5 bath home being sold AS-IS. Great opportunity for investors or buyers looking to add personal touches. Convenient layout with functional living space. Home needs some updates. Schedule your tour today! Century 21 The Realty Group does not hold EMD. SELLERS ARE MOTIVATED!

Key facts

• Built 1973
• Listed 173 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Other water source; Other sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Brick veneer and wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Shed(s) on the property

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total of 5 rooms (bedrooms and living areas combined)
• Flooring: Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air (electric); Electric forced-air heating
• Interior features: Refrigerator included; Hardwood flooring throughout; No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $208k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $50 ($603/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (19.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $168k (19.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.8% in Hope Mills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#234 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: schools D, crime D-, amenities F.
• Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 401 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 173 days — a 12% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,326 (19.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 173 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.04%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $201,600
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3035 Walesby Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,074 (+2%)	16mo	$192,500	$179	68
5235 Thackeray Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,044 (-1%)	18mo	$220,000	$211	68
3621 Camden rd Ext	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,090 (+4%)	14mo	$209,000	$192	62
1054 Coalport Rd	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,134 (+8%)	0mo	$214,900	$190	62
3824 Constance Rd	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,109 (+6%)	1mo	$201,500	$182	60
5209 Thackeray Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,121 (+7%)	19mo	$220,000	$196	59
3840 Goforth Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,081 (+3%)	10mo	$205,000	$190	56
1415 Oldstead Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,162 (+11%)	8mo	$230,000	$198	55
2228 Cliff Swallow Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,101 (+5%)	12mo	$230,000	$209	49
3852 Goodhope Ln	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,004 (-4%)	16mo	$193,000	$192	48
3544 Lubbock Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,122 (+7%)	16mo	$215,000	$192	44
2224 Chasewater Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,126 (+7%)	20mo	$228,000	$202	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-34,058
• Equity at exit: $31,013

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-39,530
• Equity at exit: $17,984

Cash invested: $58,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28306

• Home prices YoY: -17.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 401
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,683 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,091
• Tax from tax record: −$102 /mo · $1,225/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $50

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,620

Max offer price $208,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,000
• Closing costs: $6,240
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3038 Walesby Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,650	$1.30	23d	1	0.32mi
1055 Winnall LN Hope Mills, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1132	$2,000	$1.77	14d	20	0.53mi
1209 Snowy Egret Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.5	1470	$1,800	$1.22	23d	1	0.68mi
2207 Puffin Pl Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1214	$1,950	$1.61	14d	1	0.75mi
3100 Winesap Rd Hope Mills, NC	3.0	2.0	1082	$1,495	$1.38	14d	1	0.95mi
2621 Elcone Dr Unit 2621 Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.5	815	$999	$1.23	14d	1	1.07mi
614 Drypoint Ln Apt B Hope Mills, NC	2.0	2.0	900	$1,050	$1.17	23d	1	1.08mi
2690 Belhaven Rd Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.0	1264	$1,350	$1.07	23d	1	1.25mi
2524 Penny Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1330	$1,400	$1.05	23d	1	1.26mi
575 Countrytown Dr Hope Mills, NC	2.0	2.0	800	$1,325	$1.66	23d	1	1.30mi
5532 Robmont Dr Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1301	$1,800	$1.38	14d	1	1.36mi
3918 Donna St Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	23d	1	1.37mi
2579 Gotts Ln Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,295	$1.08	21d	1	1.40mi
5032 Shimmer Dr Fayetteville, NC	4.0	2.0	1473	$1,750	$1.19	23d	1	1.45mi
5032 Shimmer Dr Fayetteville, NC	4.0	2.0	1473	$1,700	$1.15	14d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-09
   status $208,000 Pending 173 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $208,000 Active 173 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $208,000 Active 172 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $208,000 Active 168 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $208,000 Active 167 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $208,000 Active 166 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $208,000 Active 165 DOM
8. 2026-05-30
   days on market $208,000 Active 164 DOM
9. 2025-12-08
   listed $208,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,225 · $102/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,706 · $142/mo
• Expected delta: +$481/yr (+$40/mo · 39.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,199
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,651
• − Property taxes: −$1,225
• − Insurance: −$1,040
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,616
• − Management: −$1,616
• − Depreciation: −$6,051
• Taxable loss: −$3,000
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$720
• After-tax cash flow: $1,323/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700011
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,168
• Composite: 31.0/100
• National rank: #6096
• State rank: #126 of 178 in NC

Livability — Hope Mills

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #234
• US rank: #10761

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Cumberland County · 265,314 people
• City population: 39,196
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 43,042
• Household income: $67,544
• Rent vs Own: 34.3% rent · 65.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1386.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 330,855 people
• By 2030: 333,523 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 335,583 · +1.4%
• By 2050: 335,325 · +1.4%
• By 2075: 342,853 · +3.6%
• By 2100: 340,698 · +3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 8% Asian 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: D (+13.4) · D 56.1% · R 42.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 13.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.4 2020: D+16.6 2016: D+16.0 2012: D+19.7 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.69%
• Current HPI: 239.7281
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.90%
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-08 Listed $208,000 LPRMLS

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,225 · +48.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.