707 S 16th St · Nederland, TX 77627

$174,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,060 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1968 Est $152k · 15% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• Rent growth +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.6/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this well maintained 3 bedroom, 1 bath property located on a quiet street in the heart of Nederland. This home features durable laminate in the living room and bedrooms, with tile flooring in the kitchen and bathroom for easy maintenance. Recent updates include a new roof and new energy efficient windows providing peace of mind for years to come. This charming property offers comfort, convenience and a desirable location, making it the perfect place to call home.

Key facts

• Durable laminate
• Quiet street
• Desirable location

Tags

• DURABLE LAMINATE
• TILE FLOORING
• NEW ROOF
• ENERGY EFFICIENT WINDOWS
• QUIET STREET
• DESIRABLE LOCATION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car); Carport (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property in the Woodcrest subdivision
• Construction: Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Composition roof

Interior

• Flooring: Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Laminate and tile flooring; Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-39 ($-470/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $168k (4.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $152k (13.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $152k (13.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.6% in Nederland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#129 in TX, #3,906 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Nederland ISD (suburban): math 51% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #138 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Highland Park El (math 52% / reading 52%, grade C-, #742 of 4,322 statewide, top 19%, 432 students, 54% FRL); Central Middle (math 42% / reading 47%, grade D, #491 of 1,662 statewide, top 31%, 721 students, 55% FRL); Nederland H S (math 49% / reading 61%, grade C, #373 of 1,632 statewide, top 23%, 1,439 students, 47% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.3%/yr); 111 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 343 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $151,536 (13.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.96%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $151,580
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
612 S 15th St	0.12mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,056 (-0%)	12mo	$214,500	$203	75
1203 S 12th St	0.48mi	3/1.0	1,119 (+6%)	18mo	$144,900	$129	54
807 S 12th St	0.37mi	2/1.0 (-1)	960 (-9%)	12mo	$79,900	$83	52
607 S 9th St	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,086 (+2%)	18mo	$155,000	$143	50
2403 Avenue F	0.44mi	2/1.0 (-1)	936 (-12%)	22mo	$78,000	$83	37
1124 Chicago Ave	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+13%)	9mo	$189,900	$158	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-22,788
• Equity at exit: $26,078

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $13,555
• Equity at exit: $15,122

Cash invested: $48,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77627

• Rents YoY: 9.3%
• Active inventory: 111
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,515 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax from tax record: −$246 /mo · $2,955/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$318
• Net cashflow: $-39

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,565

Max offer price $167,981

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $60	-5% $10	+0% $-39	+5% $-89	+10% $-138
Rent	-10% $-159	-5% $-99	+0% $-39	+5% $21	+10% $81
Rate	-1.0pp $49	-0.5pp $5	base $-39	+0.5pp $-84	+1.0pp $-131

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,725
• Closing costs: $5,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1619 Avenue G Unit G Nederland, TX	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,750	$1.59	25d	1	0.07mi
1924 Avenue H Unit H Nederland, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	45d	1	0.21mi
1107 S 16th St Unit 1 Nederland, TX	2.0	1.0	1395	$1,250	$0.90	15d	1	0.23mi
2125 Avenue A Unit A Nederland, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	25d	1	0.49mi
2125 Avenue A Unit A Nederland, TX	3.0	2.0	1175	$1,600	$1.36	15d	1	0.49mi
2125 Avenue A Unit A Nederland, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	46d	1	0.49mi
1003 Avenue B Nederland, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	726	$1,050	$1.45	15d	7	0.54mi
209 N 22nd St Unit 1 Nederland, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	45d	1	0.63mi
2604 Avenue C Unit C Nederland, TX	3.0	2.0	1008	$1,795	$1.78	45d	1	0.64mi
2512 Avenue A Unit A Nederland, TX	3.0	1.5	1387	$1,795	$1.29	25d	1	0.67mi
812 S 6th St Nederland, TX	3.0	1.0	996	$1,500	$1.51	15d	1	0.82mi
1815 Helena Ave Nederland, TX	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,750	$1.40	25d	1	0.93mi
1820 Helena Ave Nederland, TX	2.0	1.0	840	$1,100	$1.31	15d	1	0.98mi
1820 Helena Ave Nederland, TX	2.0	1.0	820	$1,150	$1.40	45d	1	0.98mi
617 Hardy Ave Nederland, TX	3.0	2.0	1295	$1,700	$1.31	25d	1	1.11mi
311 Nederland Ave Nederland, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,890	$1.39	15d	1	1.15mi
3119 Moor Dr Nederland, TX	3.0	1.5	1448	$1,795	$1.24	45d	1	1.18mi
224 S 35th St Nederland, TX	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	25d	1	1.19mi
608 S 2nd St Nederland, TX	3.0	1.0	936	$1,600	$1.71	15d	1	1.21mi
1212 S 36th St Nederland, TX	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,650	$1.65	15d	1	1.29mi
7901 Heatherbrook Trl Unit 57 Port Arthur, TX	2.0	1.0	988	$1,425	$1.44	15d	1	1.39mi
7901 Heatherbrook Trl Unit 190 Port Arthur, TX	2.0	1.0	988	$1,425	$1.44	23d	1	1.41mi
3527 Helena Ave Nederland, TX	2.0	2.5	1088	$1,200	$1.10	45d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-07
   remarks 483-char remark
2. 2026-06-07
   listed $174,900 Pending 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,955 · $246/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,201 · $267/mo
• Expected delta: +$246/yr (+$20/mo · 8.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 57% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,184
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,797
• − Property taxes: −$2,955
• − Insurance: −$874
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,455
• − Management: −$1,455
• − Depreciation: −$5,088
• Taxable loss: −$3,440
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$826
• After-tax cash flow: $355/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nederland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832280
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,647
• Composite: 44.95/100
• National rank: #2709
• State rank: #138 of 826 in TX

Livability — Nederland

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #129
• US rank: #3906

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nederland, TX
• County: Jefferson County · 203,592 people
• City population: 22,357
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,357
• Household income: $78,001
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 572.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 259,015 people
• By 2030: 260,685 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 263,309 · +1.7%
• By 2050: 265,237 · +2.4%
• By 2075: 270,193 · +4.3%
• By 2100: 255,628 · -1.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.9) · D 45.1% · R 54.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.1pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.9 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+0.5 2012: D+1.6 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -228.91%
• Current HPI: 176.2132
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.27%
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Pending — BBOR
• 2026-06-05 Listed $174,900 BBOR
• 2004-06-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,955 · -2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.