1013 Forest Ln · Goshen, KY 40026

$380,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,657 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1977 0.33 ac lot Est $318k · 19% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.6/30.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well Maintained and updated home in highly sought after Goshen/Oldham County school districts. Seller has made numerous upgrades to this fantastic 3 bedroom, 2 full bath home. Spectaculaor kitchen, lower level family room with fireplace. A finished room in the lower level could be a 4th bedroom. Enjoy the large backyard from your huge deck and rear patio. Nice Landscaping gives this home great curb appeal. Don't wait to schedule your appointment. Do it today before this ones gone.

Key facts

• Large deck
• Backyard
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• LOWER-LEVEL FAMILY ROOM
• FINISHED LOWER-LEVEL ROOM
• LARGE DECK
• PATIO
• BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached front-entry garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Natural gas
• Home design: Single family residence; 2 stories; Located in the Harmony Lake subdivision
• Construction: Built in 1978; Vinyl siding and brick exterior; Shingle roof; Poured concrete foundation
• Exterior features: Lot features: see remarks; No fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the second floor
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Full bathrooms located on the first floor
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Finished basement; 9 total rooms; 8 closets; Eat-in kitchen; Family room; Living room; Additional finished rooms in basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in the basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $380k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $368 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $350k (7.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $350k (7.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 4.3% in Goshen — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#152 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Oldham County (suburban): math 48% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #6 of 165 in KY (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 402 units permitted in Oldham County in 2024 (56 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oldham County population projected at +32% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $222k; list at $380k implies a 71% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $350,000 (7.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.15%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $318,144
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1030 Rollingwood Ln	0.09mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,742 (+5%)	0mo	$315,000	$181	82
1202 Cedarbrook Rd	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,617 (-2%)	0mo	$390,000	$241	79
1107 Meadowridge Trl	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,686 (+2%)	9mo	$324,000	$192	77
1017 Harmony Landing Rd	0.28mi	3/1.5	1,721 (+4%)	2mo	$320,000	$186	77
12111 Hillside Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,553 (-6%)	8mo	$322,000	$207	75
12002 Valley Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,700 (+3%)	6mo	$330,000	$194	75
1103 Harmony Ln	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,700 (+3%)	23mo	$251,000	$148	72
12100 Maplewood Rd	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,649 (-0%)	11mo	$385,000	$233	60
1123 Meadowridge Trl	0.33mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,820 (+10%)	7mo	$336,000	$185	55
12014 Springmeadow Ln	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,857 (+12%)	24mo	$345,000	$186	51
1200 Meadowridge Trl	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,450 (-12%)	15mo	$329,900	$228	48
12106 Rosewood Ln	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,827 (+10%)	19mo	$340,000	$186	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-38,237
• Equity at exit: $56,659

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-3,487
• Equity at exit: $32,855

Cash invested: $106,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40026

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Active inventory: 31
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,993
• Tax from tax record: −$246 /mo · $2,953/yr
• Insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$735
• Net cashflow: $368

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,034

Max offer price $380,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $583	-5% $475	+0% $368	+5% $260	+10% $153
Rent	-10% $91	-5% $230	+0% $368	+5% $506	+10% $644
Rate	-1.0pp $559	-0.5pp $464	base $368	+0.5pp $269	+1.0pp $169

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $95,000
• Closing costs: $11,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1606 Church Side Dr Goshen, KY	4.0	4.0	2145	$3,500	$1.63	18d	1	0.83mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $380,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $380,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $380,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $380,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $400,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on marketlisting id $400,000 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $395,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $395,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $395,000 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $395,000 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $395,000 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $395,000 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $395,000 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $395,000 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $395,000 Active 3 DOM
16. 2026-05-28
    listed $395,000 Active
17. 2017-09-21
    soldstatus $222,500
18. 2017-09-15
    soldstatus $222,500 Closed 486-char remark

    Show marketing remark (486 chars)

    Well Maintained and updated home in highly sought after Goshen/Oldham County school districts. Seller has made numerous upgrades to this fantastic 3 bedroom, 2 full bath home. Spectaculaor kitchen, lower level family room with fireplace. A finished room in the lower level could be a 4th bedroom. Enjoy the large backyard from your huge deck and rear patio. Nice Landscaping gives this home great curb appeal. Don't wait to schedule your appointment. Do it today before this ones gone.

19. 2017-08-13
    status Pending 486-char remark

    Show marketing remark (486 chars)

    Well Maintained and updated home in highly sought after Goshen/Oldham County school districts. Seller has made numerous upgrades to this fantastic 3 bedroom, 2 full bath home. Spectaculaor kitchen, lower level family room with fireplace. A finished room in the lower level could be a 4th bedroom. Enjoy the large backyard from your huge deck and rear patio. Nice Landscaping gives this home great curb appeal. Don't wait to schedule your appointment. Do it today before this ones gone.

20. 2017-08-04
    listed $230,000 Active 486-char remark

    Show marketing remark (486 chars)

    Well Maintained and updated home in highly sought after Goshen/Oldham County school districts. Seller has made numerous upgrades to this fantastic 3 bedroom, 2 full bath home. Spectaculaor kitchen, lower level family room with fireplace. A finished room in the lower level could be a 4th bedroom. Enjoy the large backyard from your huge deck and rear patio. Nice Landscaping gives this home great curb appeal. Don't wait to schedule your appointment. Do it today before this ones gone.

21. 2013-08-30
    soldstatus $160,000
22. 2013-08-30
    soldstatus $160,000
23. 2013-05-17
    listed $164,900
24. 2004-08-02
    soldstatus $160,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,953 · $246/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,268 · $272/mo
• Expected delta: +$315/yr (+$26/mo · 10.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,286
• − Property taxes: −$2,953
• − Insurance: −$1,900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,360
• − Management: −$3,360
• − Depreciation: −$11,055
• Taxable loss: −$1,913
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$459
• After-tax cash flow: $4,873/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oldham County
• NCES district ID: 2104530
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $84,329
• Composite: 47.29/100
• National rank: #2303
• State rank: #6 of 165 in KY

Livability — Goshen

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #152
• US rank: #7314

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Goshen, KY
• Population (ZIP): 6,192

Population outlook (Oldham County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,661 people
• By 2030: 80,948 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 90,894 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 100,168 · +32.4%
• By 2075: 123,605 · +63.4%
• By 2100: 133,523 · +76.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Slovak 5% Lithuanian 5%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oldham

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.6) · D 37.7% · R 60.3% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.1pp toward D · 2008: -30.7pp · 2024: -22.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.6 2020: R+21.4 2016: R+31.1 2012: R+36.6 2008: R+30.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.96%
• Current HPI: 243.3893
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+146.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $395,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2017-09-21 Sold (Public Records) $222,500 Public Records
• 2017-09-15 Sold (MLS) $222,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2017-08-13 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2017-08-04 Listed $230,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2013-08-30 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records
• 2013-08-30 Sold (MLS) $160,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2013-05-17 Listed $164,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2004-08-02 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,953 · +0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.