The Cypress Trail Plan · Gibsonton, FL 33584

$79,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 896 sqft · SingleFamily · 119 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Be the first to own this brand-new home in Gibsonton, FL! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath, 896 sq. ft. residence offers modern open-concept living, a spacious primary suite with ensuite, and a versatile second bedroom to suit your lifestyle. Enjoy the convenience of Gibsonton, just minutes from Tampa and local amenities. Limited-time offer: 5% off if purchased before delivery! Call now, speak with our sales agent, and claim this home today!

Key facts

• Listed 118 days

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $80k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#479 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 194 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.1% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $72,709 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 57.55%
• DSCR: 3.56
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 55.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.39×
• Total profit: $53,532
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 59.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.68×
• Total profit: $127,132
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33584

• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 194
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,057 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$100 /mo · $1,198/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$432
• Net cashflow: $1,073

Break-even live

Break-even rent $699

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 43%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9015 Hirsch Ct Gibsonton, FL	2.0	1.0	656	$1,750	$2.67	18d	1	1.08mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,900 Active 119 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,900 Active 118 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,900 Active 117 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,900 Active 116 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,900 Active 114 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,900 Active 113 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,900 Active 110 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,900 Active 109 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $79,900 Active 108 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $79,900 Active 105 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,900 Active 104 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,900 Active 103 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,900 Active 102 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 101 DOM
15. 2026-02-19
    listed $79,900 Active 435-char remark

    Show marketing remark (435 chars)

    Be the first to own this brand-new home in Gibsonton, FL! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath, 896 sq. ft. residence offers modern open-concept living, a spacious primary suite with ensuite, and a versatile second bedroom to suit your lifestyle. Enjoy the convenience of Gibsonton, just minutes from Tampa and local amenities. Limited-time offer: 5% off if purchased before delivery! Call now, speak with our sales agent, and claim this home today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,685
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$1,198
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,975
• − Management: −$1,975
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $12,337
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,961
• After-tax cash flow: $9,914/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This brand-new home in Gibsonton, FL is move-in ready with modern open-concept living, a spacious primary suite, and a versatile second bedroom. It offers convenience and is just minutes from Tampa and local amenities.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Gibsonton

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #479
• US rank: #8752

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gibsonton, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 17,740
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 28,579
• Household income: $72,267
• Rent vs Own: 24.7% rent · 75.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 378.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 24% Black 16% Two or more races 14% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 4% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 17% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -286.15%
• Current HPI: 312.894
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.08%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-19 Listed $79,900 Zillow