15259 County Highway 17 · Downsville, NY 12776

$150,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 624 sqft · Manufactured public records · 91 Days on market

Built 1980 0.70 ac lot $240/sqft · 43% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.2/30.0
• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This Spectacular, fully renovated mobile home (2024) set on its own land with no HOA fees, offering the perfect blend of comfort, privacy, and outdoor lifestyle. The home features modern updates throughout, making it move-in ready and ideal as a full-time residence, weekend retreat, or investment opportunity. A huge garage provides ample space for vehicles, storage, or a workshop.Outside, take in the beauty of nature and let it refresh your mind; watch bald eagles soar from your own porch, and the Beaverkill River flows nearby, enhancing the setting with a serene, picturesque backdrop perfect for relaxation. Enjoy the peaceful surroundings that make this property truly special. Located in the heart of outdoor recreation: Minutes to Roscoe, known as Trout Town USA and famous for world-class fly fishing, close to Russell Brook Falls for scenic hiking and exploration Near Twin Village Golf Club for golf and leisure. Surrounded by natural beauty and year-round activities, this property is a true haven for nature enthusiasts. A rare opportunity to own a magnificent, turn-key property in a highly desirable area, perfect for the right full-time owner or weekend escape. All appliances and furniture are included with this sale.

Key facts

• Huge garage
• Turn-key property
• No hoa fees

Tags

• FULLY RENOVATED MOBILE HOME
• NO HOA FEES
• HUGE GARAGE
• TURN-KEY PROPERTY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $135 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (4.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $136k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 1.9% in Downsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#959 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime F.
• Roscoe Central School District (rural): math 35% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #689 of 755 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 66 units permitted in Delaware County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (6.1% local appreciation)).
• Delaware County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $69k; list at $150k implies a 117% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $136,500 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.87%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $353,642
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: -57.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

6.14% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.27×
• Total profit: $53,185
• Equity at exit: $95,635

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.56×
• Total profit: $149,363
• Equity at exit: $174,598

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12776

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,438 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$151 /mo · $1,815/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $135

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,266

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $150,000 Active 85 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 82 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active 81 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $150,000 Active 80 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $150,000 Active 79 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $150,000 Active 76 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 75 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 74 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 73 DOM
15. 2026-03-10
    listed $150,000 Active 1239-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1239 chars)

    This Spectacular, fully renovated mobile home (2024) set on its own land with no HOA fees, offering the perfect blend of comfort, privacy, and outdoor lifestyle. The home features modern updates throughout, making it move-in ready and ideal as a full-time residence, weekend retreat, or investment opportunity. A huge garage provides ample space for vehicles, storage, or a workshop.Outside, take in the beauty of nature and let it refresh your mind; watch bald eagles soar from your own porch, and the Beaverkill River flows nearby, enhancing the setting with a serene, picturesque backdrop perfect for relaxation. Enjoy the peaceful surroundings that make this property truly special. Located in the heart of outdoor recreation: Minutes to Roscoe, known as Trout Town USA and famous for world-class fly fishing, close to Russell Brook Falls for scenic hiking and exploration Near Twin Village Golf Club for golf and leisure. Surrounded by natural beauty and year-round activities, this property is a true haven for nature enthusiasts. A rare opportunity to own a magnificent, turn-key property in a highly desirable area, perfect for the right full-time owner or weekend escape. All appliances and furniture are included with this sale.

16. 2024-03-15
    soldstatus $69,000
17. 2024-03-14
    soldstatus $69,000 Closed 383-char remark

    Show marketing remark (383 chars)

    Attention Sportsmen, weekenders or Artists! This little gem is for you. Close to 17. Situated across the street from public acess brook. A serene space with fishing and Bald Eagle viewing. The detached garage it perfect for a woodshop, arts and crafts space or an art studio. A little diamond in the rough just waitng to shine. Additional Information: ParkingFeatures:1 Car Detached,

18. 2023-12-20
    status Pending 383-char remark

    Show marketing remark (383 chars)

    Attention Sportsmen, weekenders or Artists! This little gem is for you. Close to 17. Situated across the street from public acess brook. A serene space with fishing and Bald Eagle viewing. The detached garage it perfect for a woodshop, arts and crafts space or an art studio. A little diamond in the rough just waitng to shine. Additional Information: ParkingFeatures:1 Car Detached,

19. 2023-07-24
    price $69,900 383-char remark

    Show marketing remark (383 chars)

    Attention Sportsmen, weekenders or Artists! This little gem is for you. Close to 17. Situated across the street from public acess brook. A serene space with fishing and Bald Eagle viewing. The detached garage it perfect for a woodshop, arts and crafts space or an art studio. A little diamond in the rough just waitng to shine. Additional Information: ParkingFeatures:1 Car Detached,

20. 2023-03-17
    listed $79,900 Active 383-char remark

    Show marketing remark (383 chars)

    Attention Sportsmen, weekenders or Artists! This little gem is for you. Close to 17. Situated across the street from public acess brook. A serene space with fishing and Bald Eagle viewing. The detached garage it perfect for a woodshop, arts and crafts space or an art studio. A little diamond in the rough just waitng to shine. Additional Information: ParkingFeatures:1 Car Detached,

21. 2023-02-01
    historical
22. 2022-09-24
    price $83,000
23. 2021-06-14
    listed $88,000 Active
24. 2021-02-07
    listed $85,000 Active
25. 2018-10-26
    historical
26. 2018-03-13
    listed $58,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,815 · $151/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,175 · $181/mo
• Expected delta: +$360/yr (+$30/mo · 19.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥88°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,251
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$1,815
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,380
• − Management: −$1,380
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$840
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$202
• After-tax cash flow: $1,825/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Roscoe Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3625020
• Math proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $50,743
• Composite: 33.05/100
• National rank: #10658
• State rank: #689 of 755 in NY

Livability — Downsville

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #959
• US rank: #18785

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,046

Population outlook (Delaware County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,668 people
• By 2030: 40,337 · -5.5%
• By 2040: 35,514 · -16.8%
• By 2050: 31,265 · -26.7%
• By 2075: 24,455 · -42.7%
• By 2100: 19,529 · -54.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Delaware

• 2024 margin: R (+19.8) · D 40.1% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -5.2pp · 2024: -19.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.8 2020: R+18.4 2016: R+29.2 2012: R+9.6 2008: R+5.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.14%
• Current HPI: 298.015
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+158.6% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-10 Listed $150,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-15 Sold (Public Records) $69,000 Public Records
• 2024-03-14 Sold (MLS) $69,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-20 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-07-24 Price Changed $69,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-17 Listed $79,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-01 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-24 Price Changed $83,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-14 Listed $88,000 PWMLS
• 2021-02-07 Listed $85,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-10-26 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-13 Listed $58,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,815 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.