3000 US HWY 17/92 W LOT #624 Plan · Haines City, FL 33844

$168,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured · 664 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.5/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Open-concept layout
• Listed 664 days

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $168,995

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family plan (plan name: 3000 US HWY 17/92 W LOT #624)
• Construction: Living area approximately 1,456 (per listing)
• Exterior features: Located on US Highway 17/92 W (Haines City address)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan home (new construction plan)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $551 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $169k).
• Recommended offer: $149k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#285 in FL, #4,575 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1333 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 664 days — a 12% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $148,715 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 664 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.97%
• DSCR: 1.62
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $3,774
• Equity at exit: $25,198

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.70×
• Total profit: $32,951
• Equity at exit: $14,612

Cash invested: $47,319 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33844

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1333
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,176 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$211 /mo · $2,535/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$457
• Net cashflow: $551

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,478

Max offer price $168,995

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $668	-5% $609	+0% $551	+5% $492	+10% $434
Rent	-10% $379	-5% $465	+0% $551	+5% $637	+10% $723
Rate	-1.0pp $636	-0.5pp $594	base $551	+0.5pp $507	+1.0pp $462

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,249
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3000 US Highway 17 92 W Haines City, FL	2.0	2.0	1248	$1,800	$1.44	4d	1	0.20mi
5309 Maddie Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	1850	$2,300	$1.24	24d	1	0.38mi
4373 Deleon St Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1867	$2,250	$1.21	24d	1	0.40mi
2518 Trinidad Rd Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1830	$2,150	$1.17	24d	1	0.43mi
5268 Maddie Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1867	$2,600	$1.39	22d	1	0.46mi
3329 Aruba Way Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1669	$2,200	$1.32	24d	1	0.51mi
1229 Forest Gate Cir Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1584	$1,895	$1.20	15d	1	0.52mi
1241 Forest Gate Cir Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1726	$2,100	$1.22	24d	1	0.54mi
6004 Bimini Ave Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1480	$1,750	$1.18	24d	1	0.59mi
4014 Alissa Ln Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1598	$2,250	$1.41	24d	1	0.61mi
2621 Trinidad Rd Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1830	$2,200	$1.20	24d	1	0.62mi
3815 Whitney Way Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1767	$2,150	$1.22	15d	1	0.62mi
4209 Deleon St Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1863	$2,450	$1.32	15d	1	0.62mi
3593 Yarian Dr Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1672	$1,900	$1.14	24d	1	0.65mi
3593 Yarian Dr Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1672	$1,900	$1.14	11d	1	0.65mi
3707 Eisel Way Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1407	$2,065	$1.47	15d	1	0.68mi
3521 Yarian Dr Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1695	$1,800	$1.06	13d	1	0.78mi
1109 Ronlin St Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1874	$1,981	$1.06	24d	1	0.86mi
945 Kenbar Ave Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	1527	$2,051	$1.34	15d	1	1.07mi
3108 Cassidy Ln Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1823	$2,200	$1.21	24d	1	1.13mi
105 Kenny Blvd Haines City, FL	3.0	2.5	1802	$2,600	$1.44	4d	1	1.14mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $168,995 Active 664 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $168,995 Active 663 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $168,995 Active 662 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $168,995 Active 661 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $168,995 Active 659 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $168,995 Active 656 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $168,995 Active 655 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $168,995 Active 654 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $168,995 Active 653 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $168,995 Active 650 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $168,995 Active 648 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $168,995 Active 647 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $168,995 Active 646 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,107
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,466
• − Property taxes: −$2,535
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,089
• − Management: −$2,089
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable income: $4,167
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,000
• After-tax cash flow: $5,610/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Haines City

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #285
• US rank: #4575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Haines City, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 51,255
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,255
• Household income: $63,650
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1107.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.94%
• Current HPI: 291.0798
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B