8151 Mariner St · Jacksonville, FL 32220

$170,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 714 sqft · SingleFamily · 6 Days on market

Built 1956 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

NEWLY RENOVATED, come and take a look at this newly renovated two bedroom, 1 bathroom home. This home is fully fenced in with so much privacy. walking up to the home you have a beautiful front porch perfect for sitting outside and enjoying your morning coffee. Walking into the home you are greeted with a beautiful new kitchen. This kitchen is equipped with new appliances, new countertops, new cabinets and more. The bedrooms are both amazing sizes! Some major highlights are a new roof, new HVAC, new water heater and so much more! You do not want to miss out on this amazing home. Come and schedule your tour today!

Key facts

• New kitchen
• Fully fenced
• Front porch

Tags

• FULLY FENCED
• FRONT PORCH
• NEW KITCHEN
• NEW APPLIANCES
• NEW COUNTERTOPS
• NEW CABINETS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking; Attached garage
• Utilities: Electricity available; Water connected
• Home design: Single Family Residence; One story
• Exterior features: No private pool; One-level property; Used as a single-family residence

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (one or more on the main level)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Single living area (1 total room); Verify measurements noted for one room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2 ($-24/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $170k (0.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (12.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $148k (12.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.0% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 107 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $148,462 (12.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.05%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-27,651
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-24,150
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32220

• Home prices YoY: -18.1%
• Active inventory: 107
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,485 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$212 /mo · $2,550/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $-2

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,487

Max offer price $169,713

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $116	-5% $57	+0% $-2	+5% $-61	+10% $-119
Rent	-10% $-119	-5% $-61	+0% $-2	+5% $57	+10% $115
Rate	-1.0pp $84	-0.5pp $41	base $-2	+0.5pp $-46	+1.0pp $-91

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $170,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $170,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $170,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $170,000 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 619-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $170,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,815
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$2,550
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,425
• − Management: −$1,425
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable loss: −$2,903
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$697
• After-tax cash flow: $673/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This newly renovated two-bedroom home is in excellent condition with a fresh exterior, new appliances, and updated interiors. It's move-in ready and offers a great rental opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both Replace outdoor furniture — Improves rental appeal and adds value
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both Replace outdoor furniture — Improves rental appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 12,298
• Household income: $81,792
• Rent vs Own: 13.7% rent · 86.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 177.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Black 19% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 11% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Cuban 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.90%
• Current HPI: 293.7943
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $170,000 realMLS