16879 Balmoral · Conroe, TX 77316

$160,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 970 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 2020 2,247 sqft lot $165/sqft · at area comps Est $164k · at est. $32/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.1/30.0
• ARV discount +8.6/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lake Conroe Village is just across the street from Lake Conroe. This charming 2 bedroom 2 bath home is light, bright, and full of upgrades. Granite countertops, stainless steel appliances (refrigerator stays). The primary bedroom has its own en-suite with a walk-in shower and dual sinks. Nice and open kitchen with plenty of cabinets and room for bar stools, and room for breakfast table. The living area has double doors for privacy. Just moments away from shopping, eateries, and the lake, this home provides you with all the comforts and easy-care living you could ask for! Please don't delay and call me for more information!

Key facts

• Granite countertops
• Open concept layout
• Vinyl plank flooring

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• ENERGY EFFICIENT WINDOWS
• WALK IN SHOWER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 970; Lot about 2,248 square feet
• HOA & community: Member of Lake Conroe Village POA; Annual association fee of $384

Exterior

• Parking: Parking details not provided
• Security: Owned security system
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2020; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Cement siding construction
• Exterior features: Fenced private yard; Back yard fencing; Cleared lot in a subdivision; Concrete road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Disposal; Microwave; Oven; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances
• Bedrooms: Space for 3 bedrooms (possible configuration)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Double vanity; Window treatments; Ceiling fans; Kitchen/dining combo; Programmable thermostat; Low emissivity windows; Window coverings; No fireplaces
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $82 ($984/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $157k (2.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $157k (2.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lake Creek H S (math 53% / reading 68%, grade C+, #268 of 1,632 statewide, top 17%, 1,649 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools at 23% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2300 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 15% of the median local income ($124k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $156,534 (2.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.20%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $163,888
• List price: $160,000
• Delta: -2.37%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16725 E Hammon	0.21mi	3/2.0 (+1)	958 (-1%)	4mo	$169,900	$177	80
241 Ridgeside	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,012 (+4%)	4mo	$160,000	$158	78
16891 W Dounreay St	0.05mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,030 (+6%)	5mo	$161,900	$157	78
16900 West Juneau	0.22mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,014 (+4%)	1mo	$153,000	$151	77
16902 W Alderson	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,058 (+9%)	2mo	$179,900	$170	74
16965 W Hammon	0.21mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,065 (+10%)	1mo	$180,000	$169	68
16930 W Lynbrook St	0.30mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,030 (+6%)	5mo	$161,900	$157	67
16729 E Hammon	0.20mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,072 (+10%)	4mo	$177,900	$166	65
16942 W Lynbrook St	0.31mi	2/2.0	830 (-14%)	2mo	$137,900	$166	60
16934 W Lynbrook St	0.31mi	2/2.0	830 (-14%)	4mo	$140,000	$169	58
822 Omeara	0.41mi	2/2.0	837 (-14%)	3mo	$156,900	$187	56
846 Omeara	0.44mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,095 (+13%)	2mo	$170,000	$155	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-24,640
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-30,059
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2300
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,565 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$217 /mo · $2,602/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$32
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$329
• Net cashflow: $82

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,462

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $173	-5% $127	+0% $82	+5% $37	+10% $-9
Rent	-10% $-42	-5% $20	+0% $82	+5% $144	+10% $206
Rate	-1.0pp $163	-0.5pp $123	base $82	+0.5pp $41	+1.0pp $-2

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16967 W Ivanhoe Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1012	$1,350	$1.33	14d	1	0.24mi
16928 Kempwood Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,450	$1.32	45d	1	0.26mi
1050 S Pine Lake Rd Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	1052	$1,845	$1.75	25d	1	0.58mi
1406 April Villas Montgomery, TX	1.0	1.0	750	$1,150	$1.53	25d	1	0.68mi
1406 April Villas Unit C Montgomery, TX	1.0	1.0	717	$1,150	$1.60	25d	1	0.68mi
298 Capetown Way Unit A Montgomery, TX	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,400	$1.27	45d	1	0.75mi
275 Pine Terrace Dr Unit 1103A Montgomery, TX	1.0	1.0	709	$1,210	$1.71	45d	1	0.81mi
275 Pine Terrace Dr Unit 1201A Montgomery, TX	1.0	1.0	923	$1,775	$1.92	45d	1	0.81mi
275 Pine Terrace Dr Unit 1101A Montgomery, TX	1.0	1.0	821	$1,855	$2.26	45d	1	0.81mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $32 · $384/yr

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $160,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $160,000 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $160,000 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $160,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $160,000 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 2 DOM
16. 2026-03-21
    price $160,000 951-char remark
17. 2026-02-11
    listed $169,000 Active 951-char remark
18. 2023-04-19
    soldstatus
19. 2023-04-18
    soldstatus Sold 631-char remark

    Show marketing remark (631 chars)

    Lake Conroe Village is just across the street from Lake Conroe. This charming 2 bedroom 2 bath home is light, bright, and full of upgrades. Granite countertops, stainless steel appliances (refrigerator stays). The primary bedroom has its own en-suite with a walk-in shower and dual sinks. Nice and open kitchen with plenty of cabinets and room for bar stools, and room for breakfast table. The living area has double doors for privacy. Just moments away from shopping, eateries, and the lake, this home provides you with all the comforts and easy-care living you could ask for! Please don't delay and call me for more information!

20. 2023-04-01
    status Pending 631-char remark

    Show marketing remark (631 chars)

    Lake Conroe Village is just across the street from Lake Conroe. This charming 2 bedroom 2 bath home is light, bright, and full of upgrades. Granite countertops, stainless steel appliances (refrigerator stays). The primary bedroom has its own en-suite with a walk-in shower and dual sinks. Nice and open kitchen with plenty of cabinets and room for bar stools, and room for breakfast table. The living area has double doors for privacy. Just moments away from shopping, eateries, and the lake, this home provides you with all the comforts and easy-care living you could ask for! Please don't delay and call me for more information!

21. 2023-03-20
    status Option Pending 631-char remark

    Show marketing remark (631 chars)

    Lake Conroe Village is just across the street from Lake Conroe. This charming 2 bedroom 2 bath home is light, bright, and full of upgrades. Granite countertops, stainless steel appliances (refrigerator stays). The primary bedroom has its own en-suite with a walk-in shower and dual sinks. Nice and open kitchen with plenty of cabinets and room for bar stools, and room for breakfast table. The living area has double doors for privacy. Just moments away from shopping, eateries, and the lake, this home provides you with all the comforts and easy-care living you could ask for! Please don't delay and call me for more information!

22. 2023-03-07
    listed $167,750 Active 631-char remark

    Show marketing remark (631 chars)

    Lake Conroe Village is just across the street from Lake Conroe. This charming 2 bedroom 2 bath home is light, bright, and full of upgrades. Granite countertops, stainless steel appliances (refrigerator stays). The primary bedroom has its own en-suite with a walk-in shower and dual sinks. Nice and open kitchen with plenty of cabinets and room for bar stools, and room for breakfast table. The living area has double doors for privacy. Just moments away from shopping, eateries, and the lake, this home provides you with all the comforts and easy-care living you could ask for! Please don't delay and call me for more information!

23. 2023-03-06
    historical $167,750 631-char remark

    Show marketing remark (631 chars)

    Lake Conroe Village is just across the street from Lake Conroe. This charming 2 bedroom 2 bath home is light, bright, and full of upgrades. Granite countertops, stainless steel appliances (refrigerator stays). The primary bedroom has its own en-suite with a walk-in shower and dual sinks. Nice and open kitchen with plenty of cabinets and room for bar stools, and room for breakfast table. The living area has double doors for privacy. Just moments away from shopping, eateries, and the lake, this home provides you with all the comforts and easy-care living you could ask for! Please don't delay and call me for more information!

24. 2020-11-12
    soldstatus
25. 2020-11-06
    soldstatus Sold
26. 2020-08-13
    status Pending
27. 2020-03-16
    listed $128,500 Active
28. 2020-03-16
    historical
29. 2020-01-17
    historical
30. 2020-01-17
    listed $157,500 Active
31. 2019-07-29
    price $123,500
32. 2019-06-17
    listed $119,900 Active
33. 2003-08-22
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,602 · $217/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,928 · $244/mo
• Expected delta: +$326/yr (+$27/mo · 12.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,784
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$2,602
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,503
• − Management: −$1,503
• − HOA: −$384
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$1,625
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$390
• After-tax cash flow: $1,374/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+33.4% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $160,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-21 Price Changed $160,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-11 Listed $169,000 HARMLS
• 2023-04-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-04-18 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2023-04-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-03-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-03-07 Listed $167,750 HARMLS
• 2023-03-06 Coming Soon $167,750 HARMLS
• 2020-11-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-11-06 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-08-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-03-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2020-03-16 Listed $128,500 HARMLS
• 2020-01-17 Listed $157,500 HARMLS
• 2020-01-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-07-29 Price Changed $123,500 HARMLS
• 2019-06-17 Listed $119,900 HARMLS
• 2003-08-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+35.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,602 · -2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.