Plan 1243 Modeled Plan · Beasley, TX 77417

$176,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,243 sqft · SingleFamily · 351 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Cash flow +3.9/30.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * Walk-in closet at primary suite * Extra storage space * Kitchen nook * Open floor plan * Stainless steel appliances * 5-panel interior doors * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen USB charging port * Low-E windows * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Near local schools * Great shopping nearby * Near entertainment and leisure * Community park * Pickleball court * Pond

Key facts

• Extra storage space
• Walk-in closet
• Dual-sink vanity

Tags

• DUAL-SINK VANITY
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• EXTRA STORAGE SPACE
• KITCHEN NOOK
• TANKLESS WATER HEATER
• GRANITE KITCHEN COUNTERTOPS

🏗️ New construction. The $176,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $193,552.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $177k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-548 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $114k (35.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $100k (43.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $100k (43.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.9% vs local median 5.5% in Beasley — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,273 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Beasley El (math 42% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 366 students, 86% FRL); George J H (math 27% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 1,173 students, 81% FRL); B F Terry H S (math 34% / reading 41%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 1,739 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 43% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Lamar CISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 316 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 351 days — a 12% lower offer ($156k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $100,000 (43.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 351 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 44% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.52% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.13%
• DSCR: 0.46
• GRM: 16.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $193,552
• List price: $176,995
• Delta: -8.55%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2239 Hawthorn Grove St	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,360 (+9%)	3mo	$205,753	$151	79
2615 Magnolia Meadow Ln	1.95mi	3/2.0	1,288 (+4%)	1mo	$224,990	$175	58
2626 Magnolia Meadow Ln	1.98mi	3/2.0	1,288 (+4%)	1mo	$219,990	$171	58
2635 Magnolia Meadow Ln	1.98mi	3/2.0	1,533 (+23%)	1mo	$241,990	$158	39
2614 Ranch View Ct	2.01mi	3/2.0	1,533 (+23%)	2mo	$234,990	$153	39
6826 Spur Creek Dr	2.03mi	3/2.0	1,533 (+23%)	2mo	$239,990	$157	38
2634 Starry Sky	2.10mi	3/2.0	1,566 (+26%)	2mo	$239,990	$153	38
6802 Canyon Breeze Dr	1.98mi	3/2.0	1,533 (+23%)	2mo	$234,990	$153	38
2611 Ranch View Ct	1.99mi	3/2.0	1,612 (+30%)	3mo	$244,990	$152	38
2610 Magnolia Meadow Ln	2.03mi	3/2.0	1,533 (+23%)	3mo	$229,990	$150	37
6715 Prairie Sky Dr	2.11mi	3/2.0	1,566 (+26%)	3mo	$254,990	$163	37
6818 Spur Creek Dr	2.04mi	3/2.0	1,612 (+30%)	3mo	$234,990	$146	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.15% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $527
• Equity at exit: $99,872

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.68×
• Total profit: $36,621
• Equity at exit: $164,752

Cash invested: $54,194 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 2 active · 2 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.0 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $186,995 ($129/sqft)
• Median days on market: 352 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +20.9% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77417

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 316
• Price-to-rent: 14.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,015
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$242 /mo · $2,903/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$210
• Net cashflow: $-548

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,693

Max offer price $114,314

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-414	-5% $-481	+0% $-548	+5% $-614	+10% $-681
Rent	-10% $-627	-5% $-587	+0% $-548	+5% $-508	+10% $-469
Rate	-1.0pp $-450	-0.5pp $-498	base $-548	+0.5pp $-598	+1.0pp $-649

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,388
• Closing costs: $5,807
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2134 FM 1875 Rd Unit B Beasley, TX	2.0	1.0	860	$1,000	$1.16	85d	1	0.71mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $176,995 Active 351 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $176,995 Active 350 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $176,995 Active 349 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $176,995 Active 348 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $176,995 Active 347 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $176,995 Active 345 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $176,995 Active 344 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $176,995 Active 343 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $176,995 Active 342 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $176,995 Active 341 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $176,995 Active 340 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $176,995 Active 339 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $176,995 Active 338 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $176,995 Active 337 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $176,995 Active 336 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $176,995 Active 335 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $176,995 Active 334 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $176,995 Active 333 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $176,995 Active 332 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $176,995 Active 331 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $176,995 Active 330 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $176,995 Active 329 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $176,995 Active 328 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $176,995 Active 327 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $176,995 Active 326 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $176,995 Active 325 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $176,995 Active 324 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $176,995 Active 323 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $176,995 Active 322 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $176,995 Active 321 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $176,995 Active 320 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $176,995 Active 319 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $176,995 Active 318 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $176,995 Active 317 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $176,995 Active 316 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $176,995 Active 315 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $176,995 Active 314 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    pricedays on market $176,995 Active 313 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $186,995 Active 312 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $186,995 Active 311 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $186,995 Active 310 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $186,995 Active 309 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $186,995 Active 308 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $186,995 Active 307 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $186,995 Active 306 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $186,995 Active 305 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $186,995 Active 304 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $186,995 Active 303 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $186,995 Active 302 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $186,995 Active 300 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,842
• − Property taxes: −$2,903
• − Insurance: −$968
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$960
• − Management: −$960
• − Depreciation: −$5,631
• Taxable loss: −$10,264
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,463
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,108/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,215–$18,645 screening

This single-family home in Rosenberg, TX, is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It features a well-maintained exterior, good kitchen and bathroom, and a good overall systems condition. The home is near local schools, shopping, entertainment, and a community park, making it a great investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Smart home security system — Enhances safety and appeal ↑
• Both Smart home automation — Improves convenience and energy efficiency ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 33/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Beasley El F TX #1,995/4,322 Nat'l #23,081/41,679 Middle George J H F TX #1,156/1,662 Nat'l #9,659/14,009 High B F Terry H S F TX #888/1,632 Nat'l #8,937/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 57/100

Livability — Beasley

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1273
• US rank: #22130

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing F Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend · 1,004,526 people
• Metro: Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX
• Population (ZIP): 3,232
• Household income: $60,809
• Rent vs Own: 32.2% rent · 67.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 67% Two or more races 49% White 22% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 54%
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 24%

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Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.15%
• Current HPI: 337.8236
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $185,995 Zillow
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $183,995 Zillow
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $181,995 Zillow
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $180,995 Zillow
• 2025-12-12 Price Changed $185,995 Zillow
• 2025-11-22 Listed $195,995 Zillow