Plan 1243 Modeled Plan · Rosenberg, TX 77417

$180,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,243 sqft · SingleFamily · 208 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 5% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * Walk-in closet at primary suite * Extra storage space * Kitchen nook * Open floor plan * Stainless steel appliances * 5-panel interior doors * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen USB charging port * Low-E windows * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Near local schools * Great shopping nearby * Near entertainment and leisure * Community park * Pickleball court * Pond

Key facts

• Extra storage space
• Walk-in closet
• Dual-sink vanity

Tags

• DUAL-SINK VANITY
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• EXTRA STORAGE SPACE
• KITCHEN NOOK
• TANKLESS WATER HEATER
• GRANITE KITCHEN COUNTERTOPS

🏗️ New construction. The $180,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $181,948.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $181k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $228 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $181k).
• Recommended offer: $159k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.4% in Rosenberg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#922 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 232 active listings in the ZIP; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (4.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $51k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 208 days — a 12% lower offer ($159k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,275 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 208 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.36%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $181,948
• List price: $180,995
• Delta: -0.52%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

4.15% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.94×
• Total profit: $47,791
• Equity at exit: $93,885

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.68×
• Total profit: $136,550
• Equity at exit: $154,875

Cash invested: $50,946 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77417

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 232
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,880 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$954
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$227 /mo · $2,729/yr
• Insurance: −$76
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $228

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,592

Max offer price $181,948

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,487
• Closing costs: $5,458
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $180,995 Active 208 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $180,995 Active 207 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $180,995 Active 206 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,995 Active 205 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,995 Active 203 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $180,995 Active 199 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $180,995 Active 198 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $180,995 Active 197 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $180,995 Active 194 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $180,995 Active 193 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $180,995 Active 192 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $180,995 Active 191 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $180,995 Active 190 DOM
14. 2026-04-11
    price $185,995 460-char remark

    Show marketing remark (460 chars)

    * Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * Walk-in closet at primary suite * Extra storage space * Kitchen nook * Open floor plan * Stainless steel appliances * 5-panel interior doors * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen USB charging port * Low-E windows * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Near local schools * Great shopping nearby * Near entertainment and leisure * Community park * Pickleball court * Pond

15. 2026-03-28
    price $183,995 460-char remark

    Show marketing remark (460 chars)

    * Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * Walk-in closet at primary suite * Extra storage space * Kitchen nook * Open floor plan * Stainless steel appliances * 5-panel interior doors * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen USB charging port * Low-E windows * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Near local schools * Great shopping nearby * Near entertainment and leisure * Community park * Pickleball court * Pond

16. 2026-03-24
    price $181,995 460-char remark

    Show marketing remark (460 chars)

    * Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * Walk-in closet at primary suite * Extra storage space * Kitchen nook * Open floor plan * Stainless steel appliances * 5-panel interior doors * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen USB charging port * Low-E windows * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Near local schools * Great shopping nearby * Near entertainment and leisure * Community park * Pickleball court * Pond

17. 2026-02-06
    price $180,995 460-char remark

    Show marketing remark (460 chars)

    * Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * Walk-in closet at primary suite * Extra storage space * Kitchen nook * Open floor plan * Stainless steel appliances * 5-panel interior doors * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen USB charging port * Low-E windows * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Near local schools * Great shopping nearby * Near entertainment and leisure * Community park * Pickleball court * Pond

18. 2025-12-12
    price $185,995 460-char remark

    Show marketing remark (460 chars)

    * Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * Walk-in closet at primary suite * Extra storage space * Kitchen nook * Open floor plan * Stainless steel appliances * 5-panel interior doors * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen USB charging port * Low-E windows * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Near local schools * Great shopping nearby * Near entertainment and leisure * Community park * Pickleball court * Pond

19. 2025-11-22
    listed $195,995 Active 460-char remark

    Show marketing remark (460 chars)

    * Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * Walk-in closet at primary suite * Extra storage space * Kitchen nook * Open floor plan * Stainless steel appliances * 5-panel interior doors * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen USB charging port * Low-E windows * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Near local schools * Great shopping nearby * Near entertainment and leisure * Community park * Pickleball court * Pond

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,557
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,192
• − Property taxes: −$2,729
• − Insurance: −$910
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,805
• − Management: −$1,805
• − Depreciation: −$5,293
• Taxable loss: −$176
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$42
• After-tax cash flow: $2,773/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home in Rosenberg, TX, is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It features a well-maintained exterior, good kitchen and bathroom, and a good overall systems condition. The home is near local schools, shopping, entertainment, and a community park, making it a great investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Smart home security system — Enhances safety and appeal
• Both Smart home automation — Improves convenience and energy efficiency
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Smart home security system — Enhances safety and appeal ↑
• Both Smart home automation — Improves convenience and energy efficiency ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Rosenberg

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #922
• US rank: #16414

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 115,151
• Population (ZIP): 3,232

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 67% Two or more races 49% White 22% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 54%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 24%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.15%
• Current HPI: 337.8236
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $185,995 Zillow
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $183,995 Zillow
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $181,995 Zillow
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $180,995 Zillow
• 2025-12-12 Price Changed $185,995 Zillow
• 2025-11-22 Listed $195,995 Zillow