207 Oneida St · Buffalo, NY 14206

$90,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,023 sqft · Other public records · 119 Days on market

Built 1830 2,900 sqft lot $88/sqft · 10% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 SINGLE HOUSES ON ONE LOT, NEEDS WORK, QUIET STREET, CASH OR REHAB LOAN, NO REPAIR WILL BE DONE ON THE PROPERTY BY OWNER REGARDLESS OF HOME INSPECTION OR APPRAISAL REPORT. FRONT HOUSE HAS 3 BEDROOMS AND 1 BATH. NO BASEMENT, NO GARAGE. BACK HOUSE HAS 2 WITH A POSSIBLE 3RD BEDROOM AND 1 BATH. NEEDS TEAR OFF ROOF ON THE BACK HOUSE AND FRONT HOUSE ROOF HAS MINOR DEFECT. OWNER WILL PROVIDE 40 YEAR SEARCH AND NO SURVEY. SEWER RENT IS 125.24 ANNUALLY.

Key facts

• 2,900 sq ft lot
• Built 1830
• Listed 119 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $737 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.1% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 169 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (8.1% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (8.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $31k; list at $90k implies a 190% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1830 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $81,900 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1830 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.78% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.11%
• DSCR: 2.56
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $216,933
• List price: $90,000
• Delta: -58.51%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

8.06% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 48.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.35×
• Total profit: $84,341
• Equity at exit: $68,733

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.6%
• Equity multiple: 9.32×
• Total profit: $209,754
• Equity at exit: $136,777

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14206

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 169
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,598 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$16 /mo · $191/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $737

Break-even live

Break-even rent $665

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 49%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
140 Seymour St Unit First Floor Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,800	$1.38	3d	1	0.41mi
140 Seymour St Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,800	$1.38	24d	1	0.41mi
47 Lester St Unit Main Floor Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	44d	1	1.02mi
141 Vandalia St Unit Lower back Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	850	$1,075	$1.26	44d	1	1.32mi
1150 Bailey Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.5	1100	$1,200	$1.09	24d	1	1.38mi
230 Scott St Buffalo, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1285	$2,325	$1.81	2d	4	1.42mi
149 Swan St #404 Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.0	1237	$2,050	$1.66	12d	1	1.47mi
149 Swan St #404 Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.0	1237	$2,100	$1.70	24d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $90,000 Active 119 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $90,000 Active 118 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $90,000 Active 117 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $90,000 Active 116 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $90,000 Active 114 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $90,000 Active 113 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $90,000 Active 111 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $90,000 Active 110 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $90,000 Active 109 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $90,000 Active 108 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $90,000 Active 104 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $90,000 Active 103 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $90,000 Active 102 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $90,000 Active 101 DOM
15. 2026-02-19
    listed $90,000 Active 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    2 SINGLE HOUSES ON ONE LOT, NEEDS WORK, QUIET STREET, CASH OR REHAB LOAN, NO REPAIR WILL BE DONE ON THE PROPERTY BY OWNER REGARDLESS OF HOME INSPECTION OR APPRAISAL REPORT. FRONT HOUSE HAS 3 BEDROOMS AND 1 BATH. NO BASEMENT, NO GARAGE. BACK HOUSE HAS 2 WITH A POSSIBLE 3RD BEDROOM AND 1 BATH. NEEDS TEAR OFF ROOF ON THE BACK HOUSE AND FRONT HOUSE ROOF HAS MINOR DEFECT. OWNER WILL PROVIDE 40 YEAR SEARCH AND NO SURVEY. SEWER RENT IS 125.24 ANNUALLY.

16. 2025-01-14
    soldstatus $31,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $191 · $16/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $856 · $71/mo
• Expected delta: +$665/yr (+$55/mo · 349.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,181
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$191
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,534
• − Management: −$1,534
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $7,812
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,875
• After-tax cash flow: $6,974/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 21,631
• Household income: $50,450
• Rent vs Own: 39.3% rent · 60.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 841.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 13% Black 12% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 25% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.06%
• Current HPI: 457.3935
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+190.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-19 Listed $90,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-01-14 Sold (Public Records) $31,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $191 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.