150 Fm 1414 · Newton, TX 75966

$89,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,054 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 79 Days on market

Built 1950 Fair condition 9.76 ac lot $85/sqft · 73% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.7/10.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the beauty of East Texas living on this 9.76-acre property featuring gentle rolling hills and plenty of open space to create your dream retreat. The land itself is the true highlight—peaceful, picturesque, and versatile for a variety of uses such as a small farm, recreational getaway, or future homesite. An older 2-bedroom, 1-bath home sits on the property and will need some work, offering potential for a fixer-upper project, guest home, or temporary stay while you build. With its combination of scenic acreage and opportunity for improvement, this property is ideal for anyone looking to enjoy country living with room to grow.

Key facts

• Open space
• Gentle rolling hills
• 9.76-acre property

Tags

• 9.76-ACRE PROPERTY
• GENTLE ROLLING HILLS
• OPEN SPACE
• SMALL FARM
• RECREATIONAL GETAWAY
• FUTURE HOMESITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $90k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $88 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($954 rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $85k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,355 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Newton ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #661 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.5% local appreciation)).
• Newton County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($85k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $84,506 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.22%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $387,810
• List price: $89,900
• Delta: -76.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.46% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.74×
• Total profit: $18,707
• Equity at exit: $42,767

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.23×
• Total profit: $56,095
• Equity at exit: $67,792

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75966

• Home prices YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $954 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax from tax record: −$156 /mo · $1,877/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$200
• Net cashflow: $88

Break-even live

Break-even rent $842

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 648-char remark

   Show marketing remark (648 chars)

   Discover the beauty of East Texas living on this 9.76-acre property featuring gentle rolling hills and plenty of open space to create your dream retreat. The land itself is the true highlight—peaceful, picturesque, and versatile for a variety of uses such as a small farm, recreational getaway, or future homesite. An older 2-bedroom, 1-bath home sits on the property and will need some work, offering potential for a fixer-upper project, guest home, or temporary stay while you build. With its combination of scenic acreage and opportunity for improvement, this property is ideal for anyone looking to enjoy country living with room to grow.

2. 2026-04-20
   status Pending 648-char remark

   Show marketing remark (648 chars)

   Discover the beauty of East Texas living on this 9.76-acre property featuring gentle rolling hills and plenty of open space to create your dream retreat. The land itself is the true highlight—peaceful, picturesque, and versatile for a variety of uses such as a small farm, recreational getaway, or future homesite. An older 2-bedroom, 1-bath home sits on the property and will need some work, offering potential for a fixer-upper project, guest home, or temporary stay while you build. With its combination of scenic acreage and opportunity for improvement, this property is ideal for anyone looking to enjoy country living with room to grow.

3. 2026-04-10
   status Active 648-char remark

   Show marketing remark (648 chars)

   Discover the beauty of East Texas living on this 9.76-acre property featuring gentle rolling hills and plenty of open space to create your dream retreat. The land itself is the true highlight—peaceful, picturesque, and versatile for a variety of uses such as a small farm, recreational getaway, or future homesite. An older 2-bedroom, 1-bath home sits on the property and will need some work, offering potential for a fixer-upper project, guest home, or temporary stay while you build. With its combination of scenic acreage and opportunity for improvement, this property is ideal for anyone looking to enjoy country living with room to grow.

4. 2026-04-10
   status Active 648-char remark

   Show marketing remark (648 chars)

   Discover the beauty of East Texas living on this 9.76-acre property featuring gentle rolling hills and plenty of open space to create your dream retreat. The land itself is the true highlight—peaceful, picturesque, and versatile for a variety of uses such as a small farm, recreational getaway, or future homesite. An older 2-bedroom, 1-bath home sits on the property and will need some work, offering potential for a fixer-upper project, guest home, or temporary stay while you build. With its combination of scenic acreage and opportunity for improvement, this property is ideal for anyone looking to enjoy country living with room to grow.

5. 2026-03-11
   status Pending 648-char remark

   Show marketing remark (648 chars)

   Discover the beauty of East Texas living on this 9.76-acre property featuring gentle rolling hills and plenty of open space to create your dream retreat. The land itself is the true highlight—peaceful, picturesque, and versatile for a variety of uses such as a small farm, recreational getaway, or future homesite. An older 2-bedroom, 1-bath home sits on the property and will need some work, offering potential for a fixer-upper project, guest home, or temporary stay while you build. With its combination of scenic acreage and opportunity for improvement, this property is ideal for anyone looking to enjoy country living with room to grow.

6. 2026-02-27
   status Pending 648-char remark

   Show marketing remark (648 chars)

   Discover the beauty of East Texas living on this 9.76-acre property featuring gentle rolling hills and plenty of open space to create your dream retreat. The land itself is the true highlight—peaceful, picturesque, and versatile for a variety of uses such as a small farm, recreational getaway, or future homesite. An older 2-bedroom, 1-bath home sits on the property and will need some work, offering potential for a fixer-upper project, guest home, or temporary stay while you build. With its combination of scenic acreage and opportunity for improvement, this property is ideal for anyone looking to enjoy country living with room to grow.

7. 2026-01-29
   listed $89,900 Active 648-char remark

   Show marketing remark (648 chars)

   Discover the beauty of East Texas living on this 9.76-acre property featuring gentle rolling hills and plenty of open space to create your dream retreat. The land itself is the true highlight—peaceful, picturesque, and versatile for a variety of uses such as a small farm, recreational getaway, or future homesite. An older 2-bedroom, 1-bath home sits on the property and will need some work, offering potential for a fixer-upper project, guest home, or temporary stay while you build. With its combination of scenic acreage and opportunity for improvement, this property is ideal for anyone looking to enjoy country living with room to grow.

8. 2025-08-29
   listed $89,900 Active 648-char remark

   Show marketing remark (648 chars)

   Discover the beauty of East Texas living on this 9.76-acre property featuring gentle rolling hills and plenty of open space to create your dream retreat. The land itself is the true highlight—peaceful, picturesque, and versatile for a variety of uses such as a small farm, recreational getaway, or future homesite. An older 2-bedroom, 1-bath home sits on the property and will need some work, offering potential for a fixer-upper project, guest home, or temporary stay while you build. With its combination of scenic acreage and opportunity for improvement, this property is ideal for anyone looking to enjoy country living with room to grow.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,877 · $156/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,877 · $156/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,450
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$1,877
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$916
• − Management: −$916
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable loss: −$360
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$86
• After-tax cash flow: $1,148/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 8 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This property offers a fixer-upper opportunity with potential for a beautiful home in a serene setting. The home needs significant renovations, but the surrounding acreage provides ample space for landscaping and future development.

Repairs flagged

• Major Kitchen cabinets — Old and outdated
• Major Kitchen tile — Outdated and worn
• Major Bathroom fixtures — Old and outdated
• Major Painting — Needs touch-up and fresh paint
• Major Landscaping — Needs trimming and planting

Value-add opportunities

• Both Kitchen renovation — Modern kitchen will attract more buyers and renters
• Both Bathroom renovation — Modern bathroom will attract more buyers and renters
• Both Painting — Fresh paint will make the home more appealing
• Both Landscaping — Landscaping will improve curb appeal and attract more buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Old and outdated	Major	$15,000–50,000
Kitchen tile · Outdated and worn	Major	$15,000–50,000
Bathroom fixtures · Old and outdated	Major	$15,000–50,000
Painting · Needs touch-up and fresh paint	Major	$15,000–50,000
Landscaping · Needs trimming and planting	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$75,000–250,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Kitchen renovation — Modern kitchen will attract more buyers and renters ↑
• Both Bathroom renovation — Modern bathroom will attract more buyers and renters ↑
• Both Painting — Fresh paint will make the home more appealing ↑
• Both Landscaping — Landscaping will improve curb appeal and attract more buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832730
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $34,557
• Composite: 24.26/100
• National rank: #7719
• State rank: #661 of 826 in TX

Livability — Newton

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1355
• US rank: #23337

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,773

Population outlook (Newton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,123 people
• By 2030: 12,567 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 11,431 · -12.9%
• By 2050: 10,393 · -20.8%
• By 2075: 8,230 · -37.3%
• By 2100: 6,038 · -54.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 20% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Newton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.6) · D 16.6% · R 83.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.4pp toward R · 2008: -32.2pp · 2024: -66.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.6 2020: R+60.9 2016: R+49.5 2012: R+43.3 2008: R+32.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.46%
• Current HPI: 153.3331
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — BBOR
• 2026-04-20 Pending — Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-04-10 Relisted — BBOR
• 2026-04-10 Relisted — Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-03-11 Pending — BBOR
• 2026-02-27 Pending — Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-01-29 Listed $89,900 BBOR
• 2025-08-29 Listed $89,900 Deep East Texas MLS