45 Knapp Ave · Middletown, NY 10940

$155,000

1 bd · 1.5 ba · 784 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 83 Days on market

Built 1903 3,000 sqft lot $198/sqft · 52% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.2/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.6/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Attention investors! This is a true “what you see is what you get” opportunity. Bring your tools and imagination and transform this property into a valuable addition to your rental portfolio. Perfect for investors seeking potential and long-term returns. Cash buyer or rehab loan needed.

Key facts

• 3,000 sq ft lot
• Built 1903
• Listed 83 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $492 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $146k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 3.3% in Middletown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#79 in NY, #1,219 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute C-, schools D+.
• Middletown City School District (suburban): math 41% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #411 of 590 in NY (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 273 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $96k; list at $155k implies a 62% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1903 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $145,700 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1903 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.60%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $325,343
• List price: $155,000
• Delta: -52.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
58 Wawayanda Ave	0.68mi	2/1.0 (+1)	820 (+5%)	2mo	$220,000	$268	52
22 Woodland Ave	0.52mi	2/1.0 (+1)	840 (+7%)	19mo	$332,000	$395	41
224 Monhagen Ave	0.64mi	2/1.0 (+1)	839 (+7%)	19mo	$300,000	$358	36
15 Mercer St	0.65mi	2/1.0 (+1)	840 (+7%)	22mo	$340,000	$405	32
12 Wilbur Ave	0.74mi	2/1.0 (+1)	880 (+12%)	16mo	$269,000	$306	24
69 Watkins Ave	0.72mi	1/1.0	672 (-14%)	20mo	$250,500	$373	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $16,528
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.34×
• Total profit: $101,696
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10940

• Home prices YoY: -18.7%
• Rents YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 273
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,950 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$171 /mo · $2,056/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $492

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,328

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11 Knapp Ave Apt 2 Middletown, NY	2.0	1.0	950	$2,500	$2.63	43d	1	0.17mi
31 Liberty St Middletown, NY	2.0	1.0	1090	$2,000	$1.83	13d	1	0.17mi
44 John St Unit 3 Middletown, NY	1.0	1.0	650	$1,500	$2.31	43d	1	0.37mi
203 W Main St Unit 2 Middletown, NY	2.0	1.0	784	$1,700	$2.17	43d	1	0.37mi
23 W Main St Unit 1 Middletown, NY	1.0	1.0	770	$1,900	$2.47	43d	1	0.55mi
77 Linden Ave Middletown, NY	1.0	1.0	742	$1,675	$2.26	43d	1	0.55mi
10 W Main St Unit 1 Middletown, NY	—	1.0	1000	$1,750	$1.75	43d	1	0.58mi
2 E Main St Unit 4 Middletown, NY	1.0	1.0	1000	$1,650	$1.65	43d	1	0.60mi
30 E Main St Unit 4 Middletown, NY	1.0	1.0	600	$1,500	$2.50	43d	1	0.62mi
151 Tall Oaks Dr Middletown, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0	920	$962	$1.05	13d	1	0.64mi
17 Academy Ave Unit 2 Middletown, NY	2.0	1.0	750	$1,850	$2.47	43d	1	0.76mi
102 Wawayanda Ave Unit 1 Middletown, NY	2.0	1.0	750	$1,950	$2.60	43d	1	0.82mi
38 Richmond Pl Unit 1B Middletown, NY	2.0	1.0	950	$2,400	$2.53	13d	1	0.85mi
90 Montgomery St Unit Upper Middletown, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$2,400	$2.67	23d	1	0.87mi
31 Beattie Ave #2 Middletown, NY	2.0	1.0	718	$2,000	$2.79	43d	1	0.90mi
22 Sunnyside Ave Middletown, NY	2.0	1.0	928	$1,800	$1.94	43d	1	1.17mi
1 Ruth Ct Middletown, NY	2.0	1.0	984	$2,200	$2.24	23d	1	1.31mi
32 Palmer Ave Unit 5 Middletown, NY	2.0	1.0	1100	$2,000	$1.82	43d	1	1.32mi
139 Ruth Ct Middletown, NY	2.0	2.0	880	$2,000	$2.27	23d	1	1.35mi
260 Ruth Ct Middletown, NY	2.0	2.0	900	$2,025	$2.25	23d	1	1.44mi
268 Ruth Ct Middletown, NY	2.0	2.0	1125	$2,375	$2.11	43d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 82 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 81 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 80 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $155,000 Active 78 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,000 Active 77 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $155,000 Active 75 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $155,000 Active 74 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $155,000 Active 73 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $155,000 Active 72 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $155,000 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $155,000 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $155,000 Active 67 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,000 Active 66 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 65 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $155,000 Active 64 DOM
17. 2026-04-30
    price $155,000 299-char remark

    Show marketing remark (299 chars)

    Attention investors! This is a true “what you see is what you get” opportunity. Bring your tools and imagination and transform this property into a valuable addition to your rental portfolio. Perfect for investors seeking potential and long-term returns. Cash buyer or rehab loan needed.

18. 2026-03-27
    listed $175,000 Active 299-char remark

    Show marketing remark (299 chars)

    Attention investors! This is a true “what you see is what you get” opportunity. Bring your tools and imagination and transform this property into a valuable addition to your rental portfolio. Perfect for investors seeking potential and long-term returns. Cash buyer or rehab loan needed.

19. 2018-03-29
    soldstatus $95,500
20. 2004-11-02
    soldstatus $155,000 388-char remark

    Show marketing remark (388 chars)

    Great investment property! Two family will seperate fernaces, hot water heaters and electric meters. Tenants pay all expences. There is a bedroom and bathroom in basement for extra room. Property has nice back yard for children. There currently month-to-month leases with the tennants. Rent for downstairs apartment will be raised to $750 in August. Great location! Property sold 'AS IS'

21. 2004-07-23
    historical 388-char remark

    Show marketing remark (388 chars)

    Great investment property! Two family will seperate fernaces, hot water heaters and electric meters. Tenants pay all expences. There is a bedroom and bathroom in basement for extra room. Property has nice back yard for children. There currently month-to-month leases with the tennants. Rent for downstairs apartment will be raised to $750 in August. Great location! Property sold 'AS IS'

22. 2004-06-14
    listed $155,000 388-char remark

    Show marketing remark (388 chars)

    Great investment property! Two family will seperate fernaces, hot water heaters and electric meters. Tenants pay all expences. There is a bedroom and bathroom in basement for extra room. Property has nice back yard for children. There currently month-to-month leases with the tennants. Rent for downstairs apartment will be raised to $750 in August. Great location! Property sold 'AS IS'

23. 1991-08-02
    soldstatus $24,000
24. 1987-09-24
    soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,056 · $171/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,338 · $195/mo
• Expected delta: +$282/yr (+$23/mo · 13.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,401
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$2,056
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,872
• − Management: −$1,872
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable income: $3,634
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$872
• After-tax cash flow: $5,030/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Middletown City School District
• NCES district ID: 3619320
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 19.00%
• Median HH income: $54,612
• Composite: 41.52/100
• National rank: #3453
• State rank: #411 of 590 in NY

Livability — Middletown

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #79
• US rank: #1219

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute C- Cost of living C Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Middletown, NY
• County: Orange County · 267,004 people
• City population: 68,033
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 53,611
• Household income: $87,080
• Rent vs Own: 38.4% rent · 61.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1846.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Hispanic / Latino 32% Black 20% Two or more races 13% Asian 4% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 13% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.68%
• Current HPI: 311.5969
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.23%
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+675.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $155,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-27 Listed $175,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-29 Sold (Public Records) $95,500 Public Records
• 2004-11-02 Sold (MLS) $155,000 HGMLS
• 2004-07-23 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2004-06-14 Listed $155,000 HGMLS
• 1991-08-02 Sold (Public Records) $24,000 Public Records
• 1987-09-24 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,056 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.