Lavaca Plan · Brookshire, TX 77423

$285,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,109 sqft · SingleFamily · 540 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Lavaca floor plan offers an exceptional living experience with its thoughtful design, modern amenities, and customizable options. With four bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, this plan provides ample space for families of all sizes. Entering this home, you're met with the foyer area which leads to the combined kitchen and dining area that faces your spacious family room area. The kitchen is complete with gorgeous granite countertops, designer light fixtures, a walk-in pantry and a sizeable kitchen island. Following the combined living area is the private master suite and walk-in closet. Homeowners can choose between a 2-car or 2.5-car garage, while the optional covered patio offers a comfortable and inviting outdoor space for relaxing and entertaining guests. For those seeking a touch of luxury, the Lavaca also includes a master luxury bath option, featuring upgraded features such as a spa-like shower, soaking tub, and double vanity. In addition, the Lavaca floor plan also boasts an upstairs game room, providing a versatile space for a variety of activities, from movie nights to game tournaments or even a home gym. Also upstairs are the three remaining bedrooms with two bedrooms containing walk-in closets for ultimate storage capacity, as well as an upstairs utility room! Measuring in at 2109 square feet, the Lavaca offers ample living space while maintaining a cozy and inviting atmosphere. With its spacious design and numerous customizable options, this floor plan truly has. ..

Key facts

• Private master suite
• Foyer area
• Walk-in pantry

Tags

• FOYER AREA
• SPACIOUS FAMILY ROOM AREA
• GORGEOUS GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• SIZEABLE KITCHEN ISLAND
• PRIVATE MASTER SUITE

🏗️ New construction. The $285,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $315,496.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $286k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-422 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $254k (11.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (22.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $223k (22.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#960 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Royal ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #744 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Royal El (math 27% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 762 students, 78% FRL); Royal J H (math 22% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 593 students, 73% FRL); Royal H S (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 842 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools at 74% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1404 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 30d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 540 days — a 12% lower offer ($252k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $222,521 (22.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 540 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.74%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $315,496
• List price: $285,990
• Delta: -9.35%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3096 Waxwing Dr	0.14mi	4/2.5	2,109 (0%)	2mo	$310,875	$147	92
3017 Arrowwood Dr	0.20mi	4/3.0	2,084 (-1%)	3mo	$339,883	$163	84
3013 El Dorado Dr	0.27mi	4/3.0	2,125 (+1%)	1mo	$306,214	$144	83
3033 Mistflower Trl	0.26mi	4/3.0	2,050 (-3%)	2mo	$314,990	$154	80
3057 Plateau Dr	0.20mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,026 (-4%)	0mo	$295,175	$146	79
3009 El Dorado Dr	0.28mi	4/3.0	2,084 (-1%)	5mo	$337,398	$162	79
3021 Bristlegrass St	0.19mi	4/2.0	1,961 (-7%)	2mo	$294,990	$150	76
3036 Mistflower Trl	0.25mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,920 (-9%)	4mo	$314,990	$164	65
3004 Mistflower Trl	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,898 (-10%)	5mo	$289,990	$153	63
3024 Bristlegrass St	0.15mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,422 (+15%)	4mo	$314,990	$130	60
3065 Arrowwood Dr	0.13mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,416 (+15%)	5mo	$358,784	$149	59
3037 Plateau Dr	0.21mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,416 (+15%)	2mo	$329,175	$136	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-84,514
• Equity at exit: $47,042

10-year hold

• IRR: -48.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.51×
• Total profit: $-133,301
• Equity at exit: $27,278

Cash invested: $88,339 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 48 active · 21 under contract
• Months of supply: 12.5 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $307,990 ($149/sqft)
• Median days on market: 71 d
• This list price: 12% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +0.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77423

• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1404
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,225 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,654
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$394 /mo · $4,732/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$467
• Net cashflow: $-422

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,760

Max offer price $254,374

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-204	-5% $-313	+0% $-422	+5% $-531	+10% $-640
Rent	-10% $-598	-5% $-510	+0% $-422	+5% $-335	+10% $-247
Rate	-1.0pp $-264	-0.5pp $-342	base $-422	+0.5pp $-504	+1.0pp $-587

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,874
• Closing costs: $9,465
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3005 Wood Lily Dr Brookshire, TX	4.0	3.0	1751	$1,975	$1.13	29d	1	0.16mi
3001 Wild Indigo Trl Brookshire, TX	4.0	3.0	1751	$1,975	$1.13	29d	1	0.17mi
3045 Wood Lily Dr Brookshire, TX	4.0	2.0	1534	$1,850	$1.21	139d	1	0.23mi
450 Road Runner Ln Brookshire, TX	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,800	$1.06	20d	1	0.52mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $285,990 Active 540 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $285,990 Active 539 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $285,990 Active 538 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $285,990 Active 537 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $285,990 Active 536 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $285,990 Active 535 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $285,990 Active 534 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $285,990 Active 533 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $285,990 Active 532 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $285,990 Active 531 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $285,990 Active 530 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $285,990 Active 529 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $285,990 Active 528 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $285,990 Active 522 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $285,990 Active 521 DOM
16. 2026-09-02
    days on market $285,990 Active 519 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $285,990 Active 517 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $285,990 Active 515 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $285,990 Active 514 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $285,990 Active 513 DOM
21. 2026-08-26
    days on market $285,990 Active 512 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $285,990 Active 511 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $285,990 Active 510 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $285,990 Active 509 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $285,990 Active 508 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $285,990 Active 507 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $285,990 Active 506 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $285,990 Active 505 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $285,990 Active 504 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $285,990 Active 503 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $285,990 Active 502 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $285,990 Active 501 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $285,990 Active 500 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $285,990 Active 499 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $285,990 Active 498 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $285,990 Active 497 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $285,990 Active 496 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $285,990 Active 495 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $285,990 Active 494 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $285,990 Active 492 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $285,990 Active 491 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $285,990 Active 490 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $285,990 Active 489 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $285,990 Active 486 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $285,990 Active 484 DOM
46. 2026-07-28
    days on market $285,990 Active 483 DOM
47. 2026-07-26
    days on market $285,990 Active 481 DOM
48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $285,990 Active 479 DOM
49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $285,990 Active 478 DOM
50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $285,990 Active 477 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,703
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,673
• − Property taxes: −$4,732
• − Insurance: −$1,577
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,136
• − Management: −$2,136
• − Depreciation: −$9,178
• Taxable loss: −$10,730
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,575
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,493/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This Lavaca floor plan is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a great living experience with ample space and modern amenities. Potential buyers and renters will appreciate the curb appeal and interior aesthetics, making it a strong candidate for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New lighting fixtures — Enhances interior aesthetics and safety ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 22/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Royal Early Childhood Center Middle Royal J H F TX #1,341/1,662 Nat'l #11,105/14,009 High Royal H S F TX #1,377/1,632 Nat'l #13,899/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Royal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838190
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $41,059
• Composite: 19.55/100
• National rank: #8760
• State rank: #744 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Brookshire

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #960
• US rank: #17059

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Waller County · 60,772 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,767
• Household income: $84,490
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% White 41% Black 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 32% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -125.28%
• Current HPI: 204.8709
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.01%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-04-01 Listed $285,000 Zillow