Lavaca Plan · Pattison, TX 77423

$285,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,109 sqft · SingleFamily · 443 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Lavaca floor plan offers an exceptional living experience with its thoughtful design, modern amenities, and customizable options. With four bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, this plan provides ample space for families of all sizes. Entering this home, you're met with the foyer area which leads to the combined kitchen and dining area that faces your spacious family room area. The kitchen is complete with gorgeous granite countertops, designer light fixtures, a walk-in pantry and a sizeable kitchen island. Following the combined living area is the private master suite and walk-in closet. Homeowners can choose between a 2-car or 2.5-car garage, while the optional covered patio offers a comfortable and inviting outdoor space for relaxing and entertaining guests. For those seeking a touch of luxury, the Lavaca also includes a master luxury bath option, featuring upgraded features such as a spa-like shower, soaking tub, and double vanity. In addition, the Lavaca floor plan also boasts an upstairs game room, providing a versatile space for a variety of activities, from movie nights to game tournaments or even a home gym. Also upstairs are the three remaining bedrooms with two bedrooms containing walk-in closets for ultimate storage capacity, as well as an upstairs utility room! Measuring in at 2109 square feet, the Lavaca offers ample living space while maintaining a cozy and inviting atmosphere. With its spacious design and numerous customizable options, this floor plan truly has. ..

Key facts

• Private master suite
• Foyer area
• Walk-in pantry

Tags

• FOYER AREA
• SPACIOUS FAMILY ROOM AREA
• GORGEOUS GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• SIZEABLE KITCHEN ISLAND
• PRIVATE MASTER SUITE

🏗️ New construction. The $285,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $308,965.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $285k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-222 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $277k (2.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (15.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $242k (15.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 4.4% in Pattison — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#876 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Royal ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #744 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 997 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 443 days — a 12% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $242,133 (15.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 443 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.08%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $308,965
• List price: $285,000
• Delta: -7.76%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3033 Buckthorn Dr	0.17mi	4/3.0	2,125 (+1%)	3mo	$332,006	$156	86
3013 Bristlegrass St	0.18mi	4/3.0	2,050 (-3%)	4mo	$334,990	$163	82
3009 El Dorado Dr	0.28mi	4/3.0	2,084 (-1%)	2mo	$337,398	$162	81
3045 Buckthorn Dr	0.16mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,026 (-4%)	3mo	$328,484	$162	79
3016 Bristlegrass St	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,961 (-7%)	3mo	$324,990	$166	72
3037 Bristlegrass St	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,961 (-7%)	4mo	$299,990	$153	68
3036 Mistflower Trl	0.25mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,920 (-9%)	1mo	$314,990	$164	68
3020 Bristlegrass St	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,898 (-10%)	2mo	$289,990	$153	68
3004 Mistflower Trl	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,898 (-10%)	2mo	$289,990	$153	66
3024 Bristlegrass St	0.15mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,422 (+15%)	1mo	$314,990	$130	62
3065 Arrowwood Dr	0.13mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,416 (+15%)	2mo	$358,784	$149	61
3036 Bristlegrass St	0.17mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,422 (+15%)	3mo	$319,990	$132	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-71,286
• Equity at exit: $46,068

10-year hold

• IRR: -33.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.24×
• Total profit: $-107,583
• Equity at exit: $26,714

Cash invested: $86,510 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77423

• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 997
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,421 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,620
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$386 /mo · $4,634/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$508
• Net cashflow: $-222

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,703

Max offer price $276,792

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-9	-5% $-116	+0% $-222	+5% $-329	+10% $-436
Rent	-10% $-414	-5% $-318	+0% $-222	+5% $-127	+10% $-31
Rate	-1.0pp $-67	-0.5pp $-144	base $-222	+0.5pp $-302	+1.0pp $-384

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,241
• Closing costs: $9,269
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3005 Wood Lily Dr Brookshire, TX	4.0	3.0	1751	$1,975	$1.13	44d	1	0.17mi
3045 Wood Lily Dr Brookshire, TX	4.0	2.0	1534	$1,850	$1.21	44d	1	0.23mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $285,000 Active 443 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $285,000 Active 442 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $285,000 Active 441 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $285,000 Active 440 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $285,000 Active 438 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $285,000 Active 434 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $285,000 Active 433 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $285,000 Active 432 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $285,000 Active 429 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $285,000 Active 428 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $285,000 Active 427 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $285,000 Active 426 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $285,000 Active 425 DOM
14. 2025-04-01
    listed $285,000 Active 1500-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1500 chars)

    The Lavaca floor plan offers an exceptional living experience with its thoughtful design, modern amenities, and customizable options. With four bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, this plan provides ample space for families of all sizes. Entering this home, you're met with the foyer area which leads to the combined kitchen and dining area that faces your spacious family room area. The kitchen is complete with gorgeous granite countertops, designer light fixtures, a walk-in pantry and a sizeable kitchen island. Following the combined living area is the private master suite and walk-in closet. Homeowners can choose between a 2-car or 2.5-car garage, while the optional covered patio offers a comfortable and inviting outdoor space for relaxing and entertaining guests. For those seeking a touch of luxury, the Lavaca also includes a master luxury bath option, featuring upgraded features such as a spa-like shower, soaking tub, and double vanity. In addition, the Lavaca floor plan also boasts an upstairs game room, providing a versatile space for a variety of activities, from movie nights to game tournaments or even a home gym. Also upstairs are the three remaining bedrooms with two bedrooms containing walk-in closets for ultimate storage capacity, as well as an upstairs utility room! Measuring in at 2109 square feet, the Lavaca offers ample living space while maintaining a cozy and inviting atmosphere. With its spacious design and numerous customizable options, this floor plan truly has. ..

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,056
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,307
• − Property taxes: −$4,634
• − Insurance: −$1,545
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,324
• − Management: −$2,324
• − Depreciation: −$8,988
• Taxable loss: −$8,067
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,936
• After-tax cash flow: $-732/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This Lavaca floor plan is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a great living experience with ample space and modern amenities. Potential buyers and renters will appreciate the curb appeal and interior aesthetics, making it a strong candidate for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics
• Both New lighting fixtures — Enhances interior aesthetics and safety

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New lighting fixtures — Enhances interior aesthetics and safety ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Royal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838190
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $41,059
• Composite: 19.55/100
• National rank: #8760
• State rank: #744 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pattison

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #876
• US rank: #15789

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Waller County · 18,767 people
• City population: 413,575
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,767
• Household income: $84,490
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 20.0

Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% White 41% Black 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 32% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -125.28%
• Current HPI: 204.8709
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.01%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-04-01 Listed $285,000 Zillow