440 Wolf Crest Blvd · Seguin, TX 78155

$217,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,850 sqft · SingleFamily · 23 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 4,791 sqft lot Garage $118/sqft · 7% below area Est $233k · 7% under $21/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• ARV discount +10.4/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Dowing - This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion November 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• 4,791 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $218k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-33 ($-397/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $213k (2.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (13.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (13.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.6% in Seguin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#592 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Seguin ISD (town): math 26% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #663 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Vogel El (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 401 students, 74% FRL); Briesemeister Middle (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,662 statewide, top 88%, 725 students, 77% FRL); Seguin H S (math 24% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,011 of 1,632 statewide, top 63%, 2,101 students, 71% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1833 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 84d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($215k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $189,175 (13.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.65%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $233,246
• List price: $217,999
• Delta: -6.54%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
504 Wolf Crest Blvd	0.10mi	4/2.5	1,891 (+2%)	1mo	$221,999	$117	89
461 Wolf Crest Blvd	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,904 (+3%)	1mo	$239,999	$126	87
503 Wolf Crest Blvd	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,904 (+3%)	4mo	$235,999	$124	82
457 Wolf Crest Blvd	0.05mi	4/2.0	1,667 (-10%)	1mo	$201,999	$121	80
532 Wolf Crest Blvd	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,904 (+3%)	4mo	$245,999	$129	79
469 Wolf Crest Blvd	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,667 (-10%)	2mo	$204,999	$123	78
512 Wolf Crest Blvd	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,667 (-10%)	4mo	$211,999	$127	75
520 Wolf Crest Blvd	0.14mi	4/2.0	1,667 (-10%)	4mo	$235,499	$141	74
473 Wolf Crest Blvd	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,634 (-12%)	3mo	$230,999	$141	69
937 Cinnamon Teal	0.67mi	4/2.0	1,781 (-4%)	3mo	$297,000	$167	60
716 Monarch Dr	0.73mi	4/2.0	1,781 (-4%)	3mo	$235,000	$132	57
832 Nodding Nixie	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,574 (-15%)	3mo	$267,500	$170	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-39,199
• Equity at exit: $32,504

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-43,962
• Equity at exit: $18,849

Cash invested: $61,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 90 active · 26 under contract
• Months of supply: 11.2 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $278,700 ($152/sqft)
• Median days on market: 127 d
• This list price: 4% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -17.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78155

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 1833
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,892 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,143
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$272 /mo · $3,270/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$21
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $-33

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,934

Max offer price $213,215

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $118	-5% $42	+0% $-33	+5% $-108	+10% $-184
Rent	-10% $-183	-5% $-108	+0% $-33	+5% $42	+10% $116
Rate	-1.0pp $77	-0.5pp $22	base $-33	+0.5pp $-90	+1.0pp $-147

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,500
• Closing costs: $6,540
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
469 Wolf Crest Blvd Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,597	$0.96	0d	1	0.08mi
809 Riviera Ct Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,700	$1.15	85d	1	0.11mi
528 Wolf Crest Blvd Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,597	$1.08	87d	1	0.14mi
805 Riviera Ct Seguin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$1,650	$0.88	42d	1	0.28mi
805 Riviera Ct Seguin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$1,795	$0.96	119d	1	0.28mi
401 Alta Vista Ter Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,995	$1.20	119d	1	0.29mi
841 Margay Loop Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1781	$1,650	$0.93	0d	1	0.46mi
829 Margay Loop Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1575	$1,775	$1.13	113d	1	0.46mi
829 Margay Loop Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1575	$1,775	$1.13	139d	1	0.46mi
868 Margay Loop Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	2034	$1,795	$0.88	139d	1	0.47mi
937 Armadillo Dr Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	2032	$1,995	$0.98	110d	1	0.49mi
1002 River Oak Dr Unit MAIN Seguin, TX	4.0	3.0	2100	$2,350	$1.12	139d	1	0.55mi
775 Monarch Dr Seguin, TX	4.0	2.5	2335	$1,800	$0.77	83d	1	0.59mi
901 Nodding Nixie Seguin, TX	4.0	3.0	2175	$1,995	$0.92	100d	1	0.59mi
1060 Pronghorn Trl Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1406	$1,650	$1.17	139d	1	0.59mi
771 Monarch Dr Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1612	$1,740	$1.08	98d	1	0.60mi
723 Armadillo Dr Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1781	$1,875	$1.05	58d	1	0.61mi
801 Nodding Nixie Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	2032	$1,995	$0.98	106d	1	0.62mi
728 Armadillo Dr New Berlin, TX	4.0	2.0	1612	$1,745	$1.08	40d	1	0.63mi
728 Armadillo Dr Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1612	$1,745	$1.08	93d	1	0.63mi
812 Nodding Nixie Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	2032	$1,990	$0.98	140d	1	0.64mi
800 Nodding Nixie Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1781	$1,745	$0.98	139d	1	0.65mi
208 Yucca Dr Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	2034	$1,950	$0.96	119d	1	0.67mi
801 Cinnamon Teal Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	2034	$1,995	$0.98	78d	1	0.67mi
912 Cinnamon Teal Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1796	$1,875	$1.04	43d	1	0.67mi
912 Cinnamon Teal Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1796	$1,895	$1.06	85d	1	0.67mi
837 Indigo Way Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1611	$1,900	$1.18	70d	1	0.71mi
837 Indigo Way Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1611	$1,800	$1.12	0d	1	0.71mi
821 Indigo Way Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1832	$1,795	$0.98	29d	1	0.71mi
840 Indigo Way Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	2032	$1,925	$0.95	68d	1	0.73mi
348 Desert Willow Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1831	$1,799	$0.98	0d	1	0.74mi
816 Indigo Way Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	2032	$1,899	$0.93	40d	1	0.75mi
812 Indigo Way Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1574	$1,800	$1.14	40d	1	0.75mi
817 Pronghorn Trl Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1575	$1,695	$1.08	115d	1	0.77mi
832 Pronghorn Trl Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	2032	$1,750	$0.86	56d	1	0.80mi
453 Chaco Loop Seguin, TX	4.0	3.0	2294	$2,300	$1.00	29d	1	0.88mi
541 Chaco Loop Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1263	$1,800	$1.43	83d	1	0.92mi
541 Chaco Loop Unit NA Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1263	$1,800	$1.43	60d	1	0.92mi
841 Bahia Pl Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1263	$1,650	$1.31	2d	1	0.93mi
821 Bahia Pl Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1575	$1,750	$1.11	0d	1	0.93mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 440 Wolf Crest Blvd, Seguin TX 78155Last updated Jun 6, 2026
• Financial info: List price $223,499

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family propertyActive listing
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1850

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec new construction (Dowing plan)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $217,999 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $217,999 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $217,999 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $217,999 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $217,999 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $217,999 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $217,999 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $217,999 Active 16 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $217,999 Active 15 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $217,999 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $217,999 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    statusdays on market $217,999 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $217,999 New 11 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $217,999 New 10 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $217,999 New 4 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $217,999 New 3 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    remarks 621-char remark
18. 2026-09-03
    statusdays on marketlisting id $217,999 New 2 DOM
19. 2026-08-31
    days on market $217,999 Active 86 DOM
20. 2026-08-30
    days on market $217,999 Active 85 DOM
21. 2026-08-29
    days on market $217,999 Active 84 DOM
22. 2026-08-28
    days on market $217,999 Active 83 DOM
23. 2026-08-27
    days on market $217,999 Active 82 DOM
24. 2026-08-25
    days on market $217,999 Active 80 DOM
25. 2026-08-24
    days on market $217,999 Active 79 DOM
26. 2026-08-23
    days on market $217,999 Active 78 DOM
27. 2026-08-22
    days on market $217,999 Active 77 DOM
28. 2026-08-21
    days on market $217,999 Active 76 DOM
29. 2026-08-20
    days on market $217,999 Active 75 DOM
30. 2026-08-19
    days on market $217,999 Active 74 DOM
31. 2026-08-18
    days on market $217,999 Active 73 DOM
32. 2026-08-17
    days on market $217,999 Active 72 DOM
33. 2026-08-16
    days on market $217,999 Active 71 DOM
34. 2026-08-15
    days on market $217,999 Active 70 DOM
35. 2026-08-14
    days on market $217,999 Active 69 DOM
36. 2026-08-13
    days on market $217,999 Active 68 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $217,999 Active 66 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $217,999 Active 65 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $217,999 Active 64 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $217,999 Active 63 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $217,999 Active 61 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $217,999 Active 60 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $217,999 Active 59 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $217,999 Active 58 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $217,999 Active 55 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $217,999 Active 54 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $217,999 Active 53 DOM
48. 2026-07-28
    days on market $217,999 Active 52 DOM
49. 2026-07-26
    days on market $217,999 Active 50 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $217,999 Active 48 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,701
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,211
• − Property taxes: −$3,270
• − Insurance: −$1,090
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,816
• − Management: −$1,816
• − HOA: −$252
• − Depreciation: −$6,342
• Taxable loss: −$4,096
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$983
• After-tax cash flow: $586/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This move-in-ready single-story home offers a spacious and modern open-concept layout with four bedrooms and two bathrooms. The home is in good condition with minimal maintenance required and has the potential for further value increases through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Modern technology can increase both resale and rental value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 29/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Vogel El F TX #1,995/4,322 Nat'l #23,081/41,679 Middle Briesemeister Middle F TX #1,445/1,662 Nat'l #11,801/14,009 High Seguin H S F TX #1,011/1,632 Nat'l #10,191/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Seguin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839690
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,210
• Composite: 24.17/100
• National rank: #7738
• State rank: #663 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Seguin

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #592
• US rank: #11298

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Seguin, TX
• County: Guadalupe County · 196,854 people
• City population: 55,600
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 55,600
• Household income: $71,039
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 17% of renters

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Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 43% Two or more races 26% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -147.43%
• Current HPI: 160.5435
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.04%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 440 Wolf Crest Blvd, Seguin TX 78155Last updated Jun 6, 2026
• Financial info: List price $223,499

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family propertyActive listing
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1850

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec new construction (Dowing plan)