193 Gun Club Rd · Denison, TX 75021

$158,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,472 sqft · Manufactured public records · 86 Days on market

Built 2000 0.92 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2000 Champion Home on .92 acre lot with large metal shop. Located just minutes east of downtown Denison. 3 bedroom and 2 baths featuring large, covered porch. Shop has carport and bathroom.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Large metal shop
• Bathroom

Tags

• LARGE METAL SHOP
• COVERED PORCH
• CARPORT
• BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $158k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $237 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $158k).
• Recommended offer: $149k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.8% in Denison — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#221 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D+, schools D-, amenities F.
• Denison ISD (urban): math 43% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #315 of 826 in TX (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 165 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 2,272 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (750 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grayson County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $148,520 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.42%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-10,544
• Equity at exit: $23,558

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $10,158
• Equity at exit: $13,661

Cash invested: $44,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75021

• Home prices YoY: -17.3%
• Active inventory: 165
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,594 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$829
• Tax from tax record: −$128 /mo · $1,539/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $237

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,294

Max offer price $158,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $326	-5% $281	+0% $237	+5% $192	+10% $147
Rent	-10% $111	-5% $174	+0% $237	+5% $300	+10% $363
Rate	-1.0pp $316	-0.5pp $277	base $237	+0.5pp $196	+1.0pp $154

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,500
• Closing costs: $4,740
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $158,000 Active 86 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $158,000 Active 85 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $158,000 Active 84 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $158,000 Active 83 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $158,000 Active 82 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $158,000 Active 80 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $158,000 Active 79 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $158,000 Active 77 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $158,000 Active 76 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $158,000 Active 75 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $158,000 Active 74 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $158,000 Active 71 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $158,000 Active 70 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $158,000 Active 69 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $158,000 Active 68 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $158,000 Active 67 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $158,000 Active 66 DOM
18. 2026-03-25
    listed $158,000 Active 191-char remark

    Show marketing remark (191 chars)

    2000 Champion Home on .92 acre lot with large metal shop. Located just minutes east of downtown Denison. 3 bedroom and 2 baths featuring large, covered porch. Shop has carport and bathroom.

19. 2000-08-28
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,539 · $128/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,891 · $241/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,352/yr (+$113/mo · 87.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,130
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,850
• − Property taxes: −$1,539
• − Insurance: −$790
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,530
• − Management: −$1,530
• − Depreciation: −$4,596
• Taxable income: $293
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$70
• After-tax cash flow: $2,770/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Denison ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816710
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $41,650
• Composite: 36.6/100
• National rank: #4629
• State rank: #315 of 826 in TX

Livability — Denison

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #221
• US rank: #5428

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Grayson County · 108,053 people
• City population: 34,008
• Metro: Sherman-Denison, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,173
• Household income: $83,067
• Rent vs Own: 16.8% rent · 83.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 124.0

Population outlook (Grayson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 134,540 people
• By 2030: 138,653 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 145,958 · +8.5%
• By 2050: 151,218 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 161,802 · +20.3%
• By 2100: 159,036 · +18.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grayson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.3) · D 22.5% · R 76.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -37.9pp · 2024: -54.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.3 2020: R+49.9 2016: R+53.1 2012: R+48.0 2008: R+37.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.91%
• Current HPI: 285.7502
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Sherman-Denison, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Listed $158,000 NTREIS
• 2000-08-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,539 · +39.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.