2961 Bailey Ave · Buffalo, NY 14215

$499,900

10 bd · None ba · 7,532 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 54 Days on market

Built 1936 4,905 sqft lot $66/sqft · 40% below area Est $837k · 40% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks MLS

2961 Bailey Ave – Prime Investment Opportunity! Discover a well-maintained multi-family property in the heart of Buffalo, offering 10 income-generating units including a mix of one-bedroom, two-bedroom, three-bedroom, and a studio apartment. With a strong rental history and all units currently occupied, this property provides immediate cash flow and long-term stability for investors. Each apartment is spacious and designed for comfortable living, with tenants responsible for their own deposits. Current rents range from $650 to $900 per month, bringing in a solid monthly gross income of $8,100 and an annual gross potential of $97,200. Located on a convenient transit corridor, 2961 Bailey Ave is close to shopping, schools, and public transportation, making it attractive to renters year-round. Whether you’re expanding your portfolio or seeking your next high-performing asset, this property is a turnkey investment with consistent returns. Don't wait. Don't wait to lose this opportunity to own this cash-cow investment property. Showing starts immediately!

Key facts

• Immediate cash flow
• Long-term stability
• 4,905 sq ft lot

Tags

• MULTI-FAMILY PROPERTY
• INCOME-GENERATING UNITS
• STRONG RENTAL HISTORY
• IMMEDIATE CASH FLOW
• LONG-TERM STABILITY
• CONVENIENT TRANSIT CORRIDOR

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $499,900 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$837,176) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 10-bed/?-bath multifamily listed at $500k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $735 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $465k (7.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $465k (7.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 237 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,650/mo this rent would consume 124% of the median local household income ($45k/yr) (locally 2873% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($485k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $265k; list at $500k implies a 89% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1936 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $465,000 (7.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1936 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.30%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $837,176
• List price: $499,900
• Delta: -40.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-45,073
• Equity at exit: $74,537

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-21,671
• Equity at exit: $43,222

Cash invested: $139,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14215

• Home prices YoY: -30.0%
• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 237
• Price-to-rent: 40.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,650 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,622
• Tax from tax record: −$108 /mo · $1,300/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$976
• Net cashflow: $735

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,719

Max offer price $499,900

Occupancy floor 79%

4-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	1	1	$2,076
1× unit	2	1	$1,227
1× unit	3	1	$1,346
Total (4 units)			$4,650

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $124,975
• Closing costs: $14,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $499,900 Active 54 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $499,900 Active 53 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $499,900 Active 52 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $499,900 Active 51 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $499,900 Active 49 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $499,900 Active 48 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $499,900 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $499,900 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $499,900 Active 44 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $499,900 Active 43 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $499,900 Active 39 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $499,900 Active 38 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $499,900 Active 37 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $499,900 Active 36 DOM
15. 2026-04-25
    listed $499,900 Active 1078-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1078 chars)

    2961 Bailey Ave – Prime Investment Opportunity! Discover a well-maintained multi-family property in the heart of Buffalo, offering 10 income-generating units including a mix of one-bedroom, two-bedroom, three-bedroom, and a studio apartment. With a strong rental history and all units currently occupied, this property provides immediate cash flow and long-term stability for investors. Each apartment is spacious and designed for comfortable living, with tenants responsible for their own deposits. Current rents range from $650 to $900 per month, bringing in a solid monthly gross income of $8,100 and an annual gross potential of $97,200. Located on a convenient transit corridor, 2961 Bailey Ave is close to shopping, schools, and public transportation, making it attractive to renters year-round. Whether you’re expanding your portfolio or seeking your next high-performing asset, this property is a turnkey investment with consistent returns. Don't wait. Don't wait to lose this opportunity to own this cash-cow investment property. Showing starts immediately!

16. 2025-08-17
    listed $499,900 Active
17. 2022-10-25
    soldstatus $265,000
18. 2022-10-24
    soldstatus $265,000 Closed Sale or Rented
19. 2022-10-12
    status Pending Sale
20. 2022-08-10
    historical Continue to Show- Under Contract
21. 2022-07-22
    price $325,000
22. 2022-06-17
    price $375,000
23. 2022-05-09
    listed $425,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,300 · $108/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,874 · $406/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,574/yr (+$298/mo · 274.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $55,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,300
• − Insurance: −$2,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,464
• − Management: −$4,464
• − Depreciation: −$14,543
• Taxable income: $528
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$127
• After-tax cash flow: $8,697/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 42,524
• Household income: $44,955
• Rent vs Own: 50.0% rent · 50.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2873.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 67% White 15% Asian 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Spanish 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -126.29%
• Current HPI: 295.2966
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.67%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+17.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Listed $499,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-08-17 Listed $499,900 WNYREIS
• 2022-10-25 Sold (Public Records) $265,000 Public Records
• 2022-10-24 Sold (MLS) $265,000 WNYREIS
• 2022-10-12 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2022-08-10 Contingent — WNYREIS
• 2022-07-22 Price Changed $325,000 WNYREIS
• 2022-06-17 Price Changed $375,000 WNYREIS
• 2022-05-09 Listed $425,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+11.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,300 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.