21511 Belhaven Way · Estero, FL 33928

$699,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,846 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 63 Days on market

Built 2002 10,759 sqft lot Est $805k · 13% under $232/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.3/30.0
• ARV discount +13.4/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This stunning 4 bedroom, 3 bath pool home with den offers the perfect blend of style, comfort, and privacy—backing to a serene preserve with no rear neighbors. Thoughtfully maintained, this home features new impact glass windows and doors on the front, along with electric roll-down shutters on the back for added storm protection and peace of mind. The inviting pool area has been beautifully renovated with new tile surround, a new picture window screen enclosure, and stamped concrete decking, creating the ideal outdoor space to relax and enjoy the lush preserve views. New pool pump and heater were installed 2023. Inside, you’ll find a spacious and functional floor plan with 11-fo

Key facts

• Renovated pool area
• Impact glass windows
• New tile surround

Tags

• IMPACT GLASS WINDOWS
• ELECTRIC ROLL-DOWN SHUTTERS
• RENOVATED POOL AREA
• NEW TILE SURROUND
• STAMPED CONCRETE DECKING
• RAISED PANEL CABINETRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $699k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $899 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $699k).
• Recommended offer: $657k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.4% in Estero — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#149 in FL, #2,242 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 668 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $7,128/mo this rent would consume 83% of the median local household income ($103k/yr) (locally 606% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $21k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($657k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $51k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $380k; list at $699k implies a 84% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $657,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.51%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $805,418
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21613 Belhaven Way	0.32mi	4/3.0	2,823 (-1%)	12mo	$805,000	$285	73
11451 Pembrook Run	0.37mi	4/3.0	2,528 (-11%)	1mo	$550,000	$218	63
20229 Wildcat Run Dr	0.62mi	4/3.0	2,627 (-8%)	3mo	$865,000	$329	56
21504 Langholm Run	0.58mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,834 (-0%)	24mo	$802,500	$283	48
21509 Langholm Run	0.54mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,242 (+14%)	12mo	$810,000	$250	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-76,856
• Equity at exit: $104,223

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-73,739
• Equity at exit: $60,437

Cash invested: $195,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33928

• Rents YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 668
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,128 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,666
• Tax from tax record: −$543 /mo · $6,520/yr
• Insurance: −$291
• HOA: −$232
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,497
• Net cashflow: $899

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,990

Max offer price $699,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,295	-5% $1,097	+0% $899	+5% $701	+10% $503
Rent	-10% $336	-5% $617	+0% $899	+5% $1,181	+10% $1,462
Rate	-1.0pp $1,251	-0.5pp $1,077	base $899	+0.5pp $718	+1.0pp $534

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $174,750
• Closing costs: $20,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11533 Woodmount Ln Estero, FL	5.0	3.0	2664	$6,500	$2.44	24d	1	0.66mi
20271 Calice Ct #2304 Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2009	$10,500	$5.23	24d	1	0.79mi
21565 Windham Run Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1947	$3,000	$1.54	24d	1	0.92mi
20623 Fair Oak Ln Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2135	$3,800	$1.78	24d	1	1.06mi
20187 Buttermere Ct Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2490	$10,995	$4.42	24d	1	1.10mi
20092 Palermo Lake Ct Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1975	$7,995	$4.05	24d	1	1.13mi
20091 Palermo Lake Ct Estero, FL	4.0	2.5	2483	$10,950	$4.41	24d	1	1.15mi
20112 Saraceno Dr Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2107	$10,750	$5.10	24d	1	1.15mi
20914 Thistle Leaf Ln Estero, FL	3.0	4.0	3099	$3,950	$1.27	3d	1	1.17mi
20884 Thistle Leaf Ln Estero, FL	4.0	4.0	2976	$3,900	$1.31	3d	1	1.20mi
20099 Seadale Ct Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2079	$5,500	$2.65	24d	1	1.23mi
20053 Saraceno Dr Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2045	$8,995	$4.40	24d	1	1.25mi
21301 S Branch Blvd Estero, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1510	$4,670	$3.09	2d	12	1.45mi
20202 Ainsley St Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2135	$4,200	$1.97	3d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $232 · $2,784/yr
• Likely covers: electricpool

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-12
   price $699,000
3. 2026-02-19
   listed $750,000 Active
4. 2026-02-04
   price $750,000
5. 2025-12-28
   price $779,000
6. 2025-10-16
   price $799,000
7. 2025-10-02
   status Active
8. 2025-09-17
   price $825,000
9. 2025-08-27
   listed $835,000 Active
10. 2019-05-16
    soldstatus $380,000
11. 2019-03-05
    price $425,000
12. 2005-01-11
    soldstatus $422,000
13. 2004-12-22
    soldstatus $422,000
14. 2004-11-01
    price $429,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,520 · $543/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,520 · $543/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $85,536
• − Mortgage interest: −$39,155
• − Property taxes: −$6,520
• − Insurance: −$3,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,843
• − Management: −$6,843
• − HOA: −$2,784
• − Depreciation: −$20,335
• Taxable loss: −$438
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$105
• After-tax cash flow: $10,892/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Estero

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #2242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Estero, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 31,926
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,926
• Household income: $102,624
• Rent vs Own: 12.6% rent · 87.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 606.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.49%
• Current HPI: 197.5913
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.42%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+62.6% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — BEARMLS
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $699,000 BEARMLS
• 2026-02-19 Listed $750,000 BEARMLS
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $750,000 BEARMLS
• 2025-12-28 Price Changed $779,000 BEARMLS
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $799,000 BEARMLS
• 2025-10-02 Relisted — BEARMLS
• 2025-09-17 Price Changed $825,000 BEARMLS
• 2025-08-27 Listed $835,000 BEARMLS
• 2019-05-16 Sold (Public Records) $380,000 Public Records
• 2019-03-05 Price Changed $425,000 BEARMLS
• 2005-01-11 Sold (Public Records) $422,000 Public Records
• 2004-12-22 Sold (MLS) $422,000 FORTMLS
• 2004-11-01 Price Changed $429,900 FORTMLS

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,520 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.