50 Cedar St · Stony Brook, NY 11790

$450,000

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,500 sqft · SingleFamily · 31 Days on market

Built 1915 4,356 sqft lot $180/sqft · 50% below area Est $895k · 50% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• Schools +7.6/10.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

INVESTOR OPPORTUNITY - DRIVE-BY VIEWING ONLY - DO NOT WALK PROPERTY The Enclave by Edaward P Mellon-Rare opportunity to acquire a double lot totaling 0.3 acres in a prime Stony Brook location. This property is being sold strictly AS-IS. Absolutely no access to interior or grounds permitted. Drive-by viewing only. This well-positioned double lot offers convenient proximity to transportation (0.5 miles to train station), schools (1 mile), and hospital (1.5 miles). Cash buyers or investors with renovation/construction experience preferred. Seller makes no representations or warranties regarding the condition of the property. All inspections and due diligence are the responsibility of the buy

Key facts

• Double lot
• 4,356 sq ft lot
• Built 1915

Tags

• DOUBLE LOT
• PRIME STONY BROOK LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area reported as 2500 sq ft (source: other)

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; No carport
• Utilities: Electric service by PSEG; Sewer: other; Water connected; Public trash collection; See remarks for additional utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; Property listed as fixer condition
• Construction: Advanced framing technique construction
• Exterior features: Advanced framing construction technique; Not waterfront; Additional parcels included

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Bedrooms: Total of 8 rooms (bedroom breakdown not specified)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No central cooling; Other heating
• Interior features: Other interior features; Partial attic; Basement (see remarks)
• Laundry & utility: No appliances listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $450k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $847 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $450k).
• Recommended offer: $436k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 3.3% in Stony Brook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#29 in NY, #515 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Three Village Central School District (suburban): math 81% / reading 83% proficiency, ranked #31 of 590 in NY (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 5% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Minnesauke Elementary School (math 82% / reading 82%, grade A+, #138 of 2,108 statewide, top 8%, 642 students, 12% FRL); Paul J Gelinas Junior High School (math 82% / reading 87%, grade A+, #13 of 729 statewide, top 2%, 647 students, 9% FRL); Ward Melville Senior High School (math 97% / reading 92%, grade A+, #117 of 1,100 statewide, top 11%, 1,507 students, 15% FRL).
• Market conditions: 86 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($171k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($436k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1915 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $436,500 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1915 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.07%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $894,816
• List price: $450,000
• Delta: -49.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
54 Cedar St	0.06mi	5/2.0	2,440 (-2%)	11mo	$697,500	$286	82
63 Cedar St	0.16mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,635 (+5%)	13mo	$835,000	$317	66
9 Erland Rd	0.53mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,550 (+2%)	14mo	$742,500	$291	53
31 Blinker Light Rd	0.42mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,151 (-14%)	11mo	$930,000	$432	43
7 Carriage Ln	0.67mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,200 (-12%)	4mo	$847,500	$385	40
41 Woodbine Ave	0.46mi	5/3.0	2,821 (+13%)	20mo	$920,000	$326	39
11 Lotowana Ln	0.72mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,281 (-9%)	12mo	$865,000	$379	37
79 Quaker Path	0.75mi	5/3.5	2,318 (-7%)	16mo	$680,000	$293	36
26 Lotowana Ln	0.63mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,200 (-12%)	12mo	$820,000	$373	34
23 Skyview Ln	0.67mi	4/4.0 (-1)	2,750 (+10%)	21mo	$710,000	$258	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-18,676
• Equity at exit: $67,096

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $54,340
• Equity at exit: $38,908

Cash invested: $126,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11790

• Active inventory: 86
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,403 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax from tax record: −$873 /mo · $10,480/yr
• Insurance: −$188
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,135
• Net cashflow: $847

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,330

Max offer price $450,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,102	-5% $975	+0% $847	+5% $720	+10% $593
Rent	-10% $421	-5% $634	+0% $847	+5% $1,061	+10% $1,274
Rate	-1.0pp $1,074	-0.5pp $962	base $847	+0.5pp $731	+1.0pp $612

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,500
• Closing costs: $13,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
90 Quaker Path Stony Brook, NY	5.0	4.0	3232	$6,200	$1.92	20d	1	0.80mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-04-27
   listed $450,000 Active 702-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $10,480 · $873/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,480 · $873/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $64,831
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,207
• − Property taxes: −$10,480
• − Insurance: −$2,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,187
• − Management: −$5,187
• − Depreciation: −$13,091
• Taxable income: $3,430
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$823
• After-tax cash flow: $9,345/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Three Village Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3628200
• Math proficiency: 81% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 83% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $121,671
• Composite: 76.17/100
• National rank: #113
• State rank: #31 of 590 in NY

Livability — Stony Brook

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #29
• US rank: #515

Category grades

Amenities C Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stony Brook, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 21,074
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 21,074
• Household income: $171,133
• Rent vs Own: 9.5% rent · 90.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 40.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Asian 25% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 4% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 2% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Chinese 13% Other Indo-European 6% Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -662.88%
• Current HPI: 284.601
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-27 Listed $450,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,480 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.