19 Collins · Hagan, GA 30429

$100,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,612 sqft · Other · 364 Days on market

Built 1969 Poor condition 5,662 sqft lot ↓ 43% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Property is sold "As Is". Property is rented month to month for $1200/month. Requires 24 hour notice to show

Key facts

• 5,662 sq ft lot
• Built 1969
• Listed 363 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $100k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $494 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#223 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Evans County (rural): math 13% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #153 of 174 in GA (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 26 units permitted in Evans County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Evans County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 364 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (33%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 364 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.17%
• DSCR: 1.94
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.55×
• Total profit: $43,527
• Equity at exit: $44,964

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.96×
• Total profit: $110,912
• Equity at exit: $69,295

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30429

• Active inventory: 1
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,500/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $494

Break-even live

Break-even rent $875

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $563	-5% $528	+0% $494	+5% $459	+10% $425
Rent	-10% $375	-5% $435	+0% $494	+5% $553	+10% $612
Rate	-1.0pp $544	-0.5pp $519	base $494	+0.5pp $468	+1.0pp $442

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4151 U.S. 280 Claxton, GA	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,500	$1.15	44d	1	1.18mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2025-06-13
   price $100,000 118-char remark

   Show marketing remark (118 chars)

   Property is sold "As Is". Property is rented month to month for $1200/month. Requires 24 hour notice to show

2. 2025-05-27
   listed $150,000 New 118-char remark

   Show marketing remark (118 chars)

   Property is sold "As Is". Property is rented month to month for $1200/month. Requires 24 hour notice to show

3. 2025-04-24
   historical
4. 2024-07-30
   price $150,000
5. 2024-04-24
   listed $174,999 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$1,500
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,440
• − Management: −$1,440
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $4,609
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,106
• After-tax cash flow: $4,821/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and updates to bring it up to a livable condition. Immediate focus should be on exterior repairs and landscaping to improve curb appeal and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major siding — Significant wear and tear
• Major vegetation — Overgrown and unkempt
• Major exterior paint — Weathered and faded

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping and exterior painting — Enhances curb appeal and property value
• Both interior painting and updates — Improves interior aesthetics and rental appeal
• Both kitchen and bathroom updates — Modernizes spaces and increases both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
siding · Significant wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
vegetation · Overgrown and unkempt	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior paint · Weathered and faded	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping and exterior painting — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both interior painting and updates — Improves interior aesthetics and rental appeal ↑
• Both kitchen and bathroom updates — Modernizes spaces and increases both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Evans County
• NCES district ID: 1302070
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $38,397
• Composite: 13.47/100
• National rank: #9520
• State rank: #153 of 174 in GA

Livability — Hagan

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #223
• US rank: #13161

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hagan, GA
• City population: 135
• Population (ZIP): 135

Population outlook (Evans County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,146 people
• By 2030: 9,833 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 9,202 · -9.3%
• By 2050: 8,554 · -15.7%
• By 2075: 7,123 · -29.8%
• By 2100: 5,471 · -46.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 53% Black 36% Hispanic / Latino 12% Native American 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Other Indo-European 27% Spanish 12%

Political lean MEDSL · Evans

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.3) · D 28.6% · R 71.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.1pp toward R · 2008: -28.2pp · 2024: -42.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.3 2020: R+36.8 2016: R+35.4 2012: R+28.1 2008: R+28.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-42.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-06-13 Price Changed $100,000 GAMLS
• 2025-05-27 Listed $150,000 GAMLS
• 2025-04-24 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2024-07-30 Price Changed $150,000 GAMLS
• 2024-04-24 Listed $174,999 GAMLS