402 Hi Stirrup Unit E4 · Horseshoe Bay, TX 78657

$269,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,848 sqft · Other public records · 66 Days on market

Built 1982 1,738 sqft lot $146/sqft · 13% below area Est $311k · 13% under $400/mo HOA · 17% of rent ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice, remodeled condo in Horseshoe Bay in Bay View Villas, perfect for second home, investment or full time residence. Short Term Rentals are allowed. This 3 Bedroom, 2.5 Bath unit has a detached golf cart garage and two designated parking spots. The large open living - dining combo highlights a gorgeous stacked ledger stone fireplace with beautiful custom wood mantel. Lots on natural light through large sliding doors which go out to deck overlooking the hill country and Lake LBJ. Downstairs are two large bedrooms which have access to walkout patios and each include ensuite bathrooms with large walk-in closets. Main level offers another bedroom (or study). Other features include beautiful wood laminate floors, granite countertops in kitchen and baths, stainless steel appliances and wine rack/bar space. Mostly furnished, clean and move-in ready! Low tax rate and HOA dues include water, trash, sewer and exterior maintenance. Parking lot was recently resurfaced.

Key facts

• Custom wood mantel
• Large sliding doors
• Remodeled condo

Tags

• REMODELED CONDO
• DETACHED GOLF CART GARAGE
• DESIGNATED PARKING SPOTS
• STACKED LEDGER STONE FIREPLACE
• CUSTOM WOOD MANTEL
• LARGE SLIDING DOORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $269k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-375 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $203k (24.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (14.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (24.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 1.0% in Horseshoe Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#625 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Llano ISD (town): math 40% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #359 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Packsaddle El (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 596 students, 83% FRL); Llano J H (math 42% / reading 45%, grade D, #530 of 1,662 statewide, top 32%, 423 students, 65% FRL); Llano H S (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 552 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 52% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 1236 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 59% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 121 units permitted in Llano County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($91k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
• Llano County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($253k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 55% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,669 (24.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.98%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $310,839
• List price: $269,000
• Delta: -13.46%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

0.95% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-19,363
• Equity at exit: $91,068

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $2,953
• Equity at exit: $120,432

Cash invested: $75,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78657

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1236
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,301 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,411
• Tax from tax record: −$271 /mo · $3,248/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$400
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $-375

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,777

Max offer price $202,669

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-223	-5% $-299	+0% $-375	+5% $-452	+10% $-528
Rent	-10% $-557	-5% $-466	+0% $-375	+5% $-285	+10% $-194
Rate	-1.0pp $-240	-0.5pp $-307	base $-375	+0.5pp $-445	+1.0pp $-516

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,250
• Closing costs: $8,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
402 Hi Stirrup Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	3.0	2038	$2,200	$1.08	45d	1	0.00mi
306 Out Yonder #154 Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1900	$1,550	$0.82	25d	1	0.11mi
512 Side Saddle Horseshoe Bay, TX	4.0	3.0	1850	$2,700	$1.46	45d	1	0.12mi
300 Out Yonder #172 Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1321	$1,275	$0.97	45d	1	0.14mi
1314 Clayton Nolen Dr Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1885	$2,850	$1.51	25d	1	0.42mi
1406 Prospect Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1998	$2,700	$1.35	6d	1	0.43mi
305 Fire Dance Horseshoe Bay, TX	4.0	3.0	2416	$3,800	$1.57	45d	1	0.47mi
1210 Hi Stirrup #209 Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,500	$1.20	45d	1	0.49mi
1206 Hi Stirrup Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,200	$0.96	45d	1	0.50mi
307 Crestview Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.5	1240	$1,800	$1.45	0d	1	0.62mi
412 Short Circuit #3 Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1333	$1,650	$1.24	45d	1	0.68mi
102 Prairie Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	2154	$2,700	$1.25	45d	1	0.70mi
106 Cross Bow Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	3.0	1764	$2,900	$1.64	45d	1	0.70mi
100 Bay Point Dr Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1243	$1,950	$1.57	14d	1	0.72mi
100 Bay Point Dr #7 Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1243	$2,150	$1.73	12d	1	0.74mi
203 Hi Cir W Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1823	$2,595	$1.42	25d	1	0.93mi
104 Cove E #107 Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,500	$2.00	25d	1	0.95mi
410 Hi Cir W Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1964	$2,450	$1.25	45d	1	0.96mi
415 Horseshoe Bay North Blvd Unit 1 Horseshoe Bay, TX	4.0	4.5	2375	$3,500	$1.47	45d	1	1.04mi
118 Cap Rock Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.5	2052	$3,800	$1.85	0d	1	1.04mi
101 W Bank #14 Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1344	$3,500	$2.60	45d	1	1.07mi
403 Island Dr Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	3.0	1875	$4,300	$2.29	45d	1	1.20mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $400 · $4,800/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrashexterior maint.

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $269,000 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,000 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,000 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,000 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,000 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $269,000 Active 58 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,000 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $269,000 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $269,000 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $269,000 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $269,000 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $269,000 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $269,000 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $269,000 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $269,000 Active 46 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,000 Active 45 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,000 Active 44 DOM
18. 2026-04-18
    listed $269,000 Active 973-char remark

    Show marketing remark (973 chars)

    Nice, remodeled condo in Horseshoe Bay in Bay View Villas, perfect for second home, investment or full time residence. Short Term Rentals are allowed. This 3 Bedroom, 2.5 Bath unit has a detached golf cart garage and two designated parking spots. The large open living - dining combo highlights a gorgeous stacked ledger stone fireplace with beautiful custom wood mantel. Lots on natural light through large sliding doors which go out to deck overlooking the hill country and Lake LBJ. Downstairs are two large bedrooms which have access to walkout patios and each include ensuite bathrooms with large walk-in closets. Main level offers another bedroom (or study). Other features include beautiful wood laminate floors, granite countertops in kitchen and baths, stainless steel appliances and wine rack/bar space. Mostly furnished, clean and move-in ready! Low tax rate and HOA dues include water, trash, sewer and exterior maintenance. Parking lot was recently resurfaced.

19. 2026-01-16
    historical $2,200
20. 2025-07-01
    listed $2,200
21. 2025-06-26
    historical $2,200
22. 2025-03-06
    listed $2,200
23. 2025-02-12
    historical $2,200
24. 2024-07-26
    listed $2,200
25. 2024-03-06
    price
26. 2023-12-11
    status Active
27. 2023-12-11
    status Pending
28. 2023-11-21
    price
29. 2023-07-28
    listed Active
30. 2023-07-09
    historical
31. 2023-02-05
    price
32. 2022-10-03
    price
33. 2022-09-08
    listed $335,000
34. 2022-09-08
    listed Active
35. 2021-12-07
    soldstatus
36. 2017-08-01
    soldstatus
37. 2016-05-03
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,248 · $271/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,923 · $410/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,674/yr (+$140/mo · 51.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 55% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,615
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,068
• − Property taxes: −$3,248
• − Insurance: −$1,345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,209
• − Management: −$2,209
• − HOA: −$4,800
• − Depreciation: −$7,825
• Taxable loss: −$9,091
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,182
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,324/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Llano ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827810
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,746
• Composite: 35.42/100
• National rank: #4940
• State rank: #359 of 826 in TX

Livability — Horseshoe Bay

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #625
• US rank: #11913

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A- Health & safety B- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Horseshoe Bay, TX
• County: Llano County · 16,310 people
• City population: 7,591
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 7,591
• Household income: $91,452
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 45.0

Population outlook (Llano County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,847 people
• By 2030: 21,350 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 22,281 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 23,173 · +11.2%
• By 2075: 25,526 · +22.4%
• By 2100: 25,866 · +24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Portuguese 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Llano

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.9) · D 19.2% · R 80.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.6pp toward R · 2008: -52.2pp · 2024: -60.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.9 2020: R+60.1 2016: R+62.2 2012: R+60.4 2008: R+52.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.95%
• Current HPI: 229.9918
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-19.7% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Listed $269,000 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-01-16 Rental Removed $2,200 ACTRIS
• 2025-07-01 Listed for Rent $2,200 ACTRIS
• 2025-06-26 Rental Removed $2,200 ACTRIS
• 2025-03-06 Listed for Rent $2,200 ACTRIS
• 2025-02-12 Rental Removed $2,200 ACTRIS
• 2024-07-26 Listed for Rent $2,200 ACTRIS
• 2024-03-06 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2023-12-11 Relisted — Unlock MLS
• 2023-12-11 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2023-11-21 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2023-07-28 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2023-07-09 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2023-02-05 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2022-10-03 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2022-09-08 Listed $335,000 LERA
• 2022-09-08 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2021-12-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-08-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-05-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,248 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.