10 Tibbitts Rd · Washington Mills, NY 13413

$220,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,012 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1950 8,010 sqft lot Est $250k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.3/30.0
• ARV discount +12.9/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Why rent when you can own a home in desirable New Hartford? Cute cape cod with updated kitchen, living & dining rooms, 1st floor bedroom plus 2 more upstairs, updated bath. Sliders to deck overlook fenced in yard. Newer roof, siding, and windows. Easy access to shopping, highways.

Key facts

• 8,010 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1950

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $243 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $220k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#952 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• New Hartford Central School District (suburban): math 65% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #128 of 590 in NY (top 22%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 100 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 204 units permitted in Oneida County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oneida County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $92k; list at $220k implies a 139% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $220,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.74%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $249,964
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12 Tibbitts Rd	0.01mi	3/1.0	1,012 (0%)	22mo	$249,900	$247	81
127 1/2 Oxford Rd	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,008 (-0%)	11mo	$230,000	$228	63
20 Janet Ter	0.28mi	3/1.5	1,161 (+15%)	13mo	$259,000	$223	50
138 Oxford Rd	0.32mi	2/1.5 (-1)	925 (-9%)	20mo	$247,200	$267	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-20,149
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $2,465
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13413

• Active inventory: 100
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,202 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$251 /mo · $3,010/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $243

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,894

Max offer price $220,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $368	-5% $305	+0% $243	+5% $181	+10% $119
Rent	-10% $69	-5% $156	+0% $243	+5% $330	+10% $417
Rate	-1.0pp $354	-0.5pp $299	base $243	+0.5pp $186	+1.0pp $128

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-14
   listed $220,000
2. 2026-05-14
   historical
3. 2016-04-14
   soldstatus $92,000
4. 2016-04-12
   soldstatus $92,000
5. 2016-04-12
   listed $99,000
6. 2016-04-11
   soldstatus $92,000 287-char remark

   Show marketing remark (287 chars)

   Why rent when you can own a home in desirable New Hartford? Cute cape cod with updated kitchen, living & dining rooms, 1st floor bedroom plus 2 more upstairs, updated bath. Sliders to deck overlook fenced in yard. Newer roof, siding, and windows. Easy access to shopping, highways.

7. 2015-11-30
   listed $99,000 287-char remark

   Show marketing remark (287 chars)

   Why rent when you can own a home in desirable New Hartford? Cute cape cod with updated kitchen, living & dining rooms, 1st floor bedroom plus 2 more upstairs, updated bath. Sliders to deck overlook fenced in yard. Newer roof, siding, and windows. Easy access to shopping, highways.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,010 · $251/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,364 · $280/mo
• Expected delta: +$354/yr (+$30/mo · 11.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,419
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$3,010
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,114
• − Management: −$2,114
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$641
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$154
• After-tax cash flow: $3,071/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Hartford Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3620370
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $67,028
• Composite: 61.37/100
• National rank: #769
• State rank: #128 of 590 in NY

Livability — Washington Mills

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #952
• US rank: #18623

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Washington Mills, NY
• County: Oneida County · 89,710 people
• Metro: Utica-Rome, NY
• Population (ZIP): 16,742
• Household income: $95,261
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 395.0

Population outlook (Oneida County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 225,223 people
• By 2030: 220,384 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 209,071 · -7.2%
• By 2050: 197,920 · -12.1%
• By 2075: 175,541 · -22.1%
• By 2100: 148,491 · -34.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Asian 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 4% Subsaharan African 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Vietnam, China, Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Oneida

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.3) · D 39.4% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -21.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.3 2020: R+15.5 2016: R+21.1 2012: R+5.3 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -210.17%
• Current HPI: 295.4235
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Utica-Rome, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+122.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $220,000 CNYIS
• 2016-04-14 Sold (Public Records) $92,000 Public Records
• 2016-04-12 Listed $99,000 CNYIS
• 2016-04-12 Sold (MLS) $92,000 CNYIS
• 2016-04-11 Sold (MLS) $92,000 CNYIS
• 2015-11-30 Listed $99,000 CNYIS

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,010 · -8.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.