359 Pontius Rd · Orange, MI 49646

$159,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · SingleFamily · 22 Days on market

Built 1998 4.20 ac lot Est $231k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Wonderful opportunity to own your home on 4.2 beautiful acres in Kalkaska! This 3 bedroom, 2 full bath awaits you. Two car garage and plenty of space to sprawl out! Close to everything you could want. Selling as is. Seller has never lived in the property.

Key facts

• 4.2 acres
• 4.2 acre lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• 4.2 ACRES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 4.2 acres; Irregular lot shape; Primary residence use

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Driveway; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured home; Ranch style; One level; Built in 1998
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Built in 1998
• Exterior features: Front and back yard; Rural and wooded views; Dirt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (15.2 x 7.5)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (Primary bedroom on main level)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Cooling system present
• Interior features: Entry on main level; 6 total rooms; No basement
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $22 ($270/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $127k (20.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $127k (20.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kalkaska Public Schools (town): math 24% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #356 of 540 in MI (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 165 active listings in the ZIP; 38 units permitted in Kalkaska County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kalkaska County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $126,717 (20.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.60%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $230,880
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
170 SE Pontius Rd	0.22mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,060 (-15%)	7mo	$196,500	$185	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-24,538
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-19,762
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49646

• Active inventory: 165
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,267 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $881/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $22

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,239

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,900 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,900 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,900 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,900 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,900 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $159,900 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,900 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,900 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $159,900 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $159,900 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $159,900 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,900 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,900 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,900 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,900 Active 3 DOM
16. 2026-05-27
    listed $159,900 Active 255-char remark

    Show marketing remark (255 chars)

    Wonderful opportunity to own your home on 4.2 beautiful acres in Kalkaska! This 3 bedroom, 2 full bath awaits you. Two car garage and plenty of space to sprawl out! Close to everything you could want. Selling as is. Seller has never lived in the property.

17. 2026-05-24
    listed $159,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $881 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,672 · $139/mo
• Expected delta: +$791/yr (+$66/mo · 89.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,206
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$881
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,216
• − Management: −$1,216
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable loss: −$2,516
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$604
• After-tax cash flow: $874/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kalkaska Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2620050
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $40,055
• Composite: 26.03/100
• National rank: #7308
• State rank: #356 of 540 in MI

Livability — Orange

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,573

Population outlook (Kalkaska County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,359 people
• By 2030: 17,222 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 16,643 · -4.1%
• By 2050: 15,810 · -8.9%
• By 2075: 13,772 · -20.7%
• By 2100: 10,976 · -36.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kalkaska

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.9) · D 27.8% · R 70.7% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.1pp toward R · 2008: -8.8pp · 2024: -42.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.9 2020: R+41.7 2016: R+44.1 2012: R+19.7 2008: R+8.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -158.61%
• Current HPI: 290.8403
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $159,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-24 Listed $159,900 Greater Lansing AoR

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $881 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.