11 Wells Rd · Aurora, NY 13026

$325,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,795 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 179 Days on market

Built 1929 0.45 ac lot Est $244k · 33% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Nestled in the heart of the charming Village of Aurora, this timeless brick home epitomizes classic elegance and thoughtful design. Featuring 3 bedrooms and 1.5 baths, this residence is a perfect blend of historic charm and modern amenities. The exterior showcases enduring brickwork. Step inside to discover meticulously preserved woodwork that graces the living areas, creating an ambiance of sophistication and comfort. The living room is a cozy retreat, featuring one of the home's two fireplaces, perfect for relaxing evenings. The sunroom is a highlight, bathed in natural light and offering a serene space to unwind. The dining area is ideal for family meals or intimate gatherings. The upsta

Key facts

• Sunroom
• Timeless brick home
• Two fireplaces

Tags

• TIMELESS BRICK HOME
• TWO FIREPLACES
• SUNROOM
• PICTURESQUE LAKEFRONT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $157 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $316k (2.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $286k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#530 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools B; Watch: cost of living D+, health & safety D, crime F.
• Southern Cayuga Central School District (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #214 of 590 in NY (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 161 units permitted in Cayuga County in 2024 (65 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Cayuga County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $91k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$56k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 179 days — a 12% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1929 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $286,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 179 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1929 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.07%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $244,120
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11 Woods End	0.03mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,876 (+4%)	2mo	$255,000	$136	80

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.06×
• Total profit: $187,088
• Equity at exit: $292,786

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.97×
• Total profit: $543,307
• Equity at exit: $631,404

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13026

• Home prices YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 20
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,161 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$500 /mo · $6,006/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$664
• Net cashflow: $157

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,962

Max offer price $325,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2025-07-14
   status Pending
2. 2025-01-17
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2025-01-15
   listed $325,000 Active
4. 2024-11-27
   historical
5. 2024-08-09
   historical Active Under Contract
6. 2024-07-25
   listed $325,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,006 · $500/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,006 · $500/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,928
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$6,006
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,034
• − Management: −$3,034
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable loss: −$3,431
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$823
• After-tax cash flow: $2,704/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southern Cayuga Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3627570
• Math proficiency: 61% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $61,177
• Composite: 52.98/100
• National rank: #1524
• State rank: #214 of 590 in NY

Livability — Aurora

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #530
• US rank: #9549

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aurora, NY
• Population (ZIP): 1,703

Population outlook (Cayuga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 74,820 people
• By 2030: 72,402 · -3.2%
• By 2040: 66,917 · -10.6%
• By 2050: 61,007 · -18.5%
• By 2075: 48,047 · -35.8%
• By 2100: 34,512 · -53.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Subsaharan African 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cayuga

• 2024 margin: R (+13.0) · D 43.5% · R 56.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.5pp · 2024: -13.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.0 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.2 2012: D+10.8 2008: D+8.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.77%
• Current HPI: 410.3875
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-14 Pending — CNYIS
• 2025-01-17 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2025-01-15 Listed $325,000 CNYIS
• 2024-11-27 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2024-08-09 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2024-07-25 Listed $325,000 CNYIS

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,006 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.