6823 Hazelnut Spice Dr · Sun City Center, FL 33573

$300,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,829 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 2018 5,785 sqft lot $86/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Appreciation +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Welcome home! This beautiful split plan, 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home with a two-car garage is located in the highly sought-after Cypress Creek community. Inside, you’ll find a bright, open-concept floor plan filled with natural light, creating a warm and welcoming space ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The huge living room is just the place to host a Super Bowl party! The kitchen flows seamlessly from the living room and features a large center island with bar seating, ample pantry storage and even a reverse osmosis system. All bedrooms are generously sized and feature cooling ceiling fans. The private, spacious master suite offe

Key facts

• Large center island
• Split plan
• Large walk-in closet

Tags

• SPLIT PLAN
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• LARGE CENTER ISLAND
• REVERSE OSMOSIS SYSTEM
• DUAL VANITY EN-SUITE BATH
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-244 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $257k (14.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $251k (16.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $251k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#178 in FL, #2,736 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 602 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $250,584 (16.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.48%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-64,884
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-79,541
• Equity at exit: $25,939

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33573

• Home prices YoY: -1.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 602
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,506 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$439 /mo · $5,269/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$86
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$526
• Net cashflow: $-244

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,814

Max offer price $256,948

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15423 Dark Star Ln Sun City Center, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,185	$1.17	16d	1	0.15mi
6533 Trent Creek Dr Sun City Center, FL	5.0	2.5	2520	$2,300	$0.91	15d	1	0.18mi
6533 Trent Creek Dr Sun City Center, FL	5.0	3.0	2520	$2,300	$0.91	5d	1	0.18mi
6529 Trent Creek Dr Sun City Center, FL	3.0	2.0	1451	$1,900	$1.31	12d	1	0.20mi
6507 Trent Creek Dr Sun City Center, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,050	$1.10	3d	1	0.25mi
6139 Trent Creek Dr Sun City Center, FL	4.0	2.5	2250	$2,705	$1.20	1d	1	0.30mi
7329 Lumber Port Dr Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.0	1275	$2,000	$1.57	3d	1	0.40mi
7338 Lumber Port Dr Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.0	1298	$2,030	$1.56	5d	1	0.42mi
7106 Salt River Ave Sun City Center, FL	4.0	2.5	1906	$2,155	$1.13	5d	1	0.45mi
7022 Ozello Trail Ave Sun City Center, FL	4.0	2.0	1918	$2,296	$1.20	14d	1	0.45mi
5450 Del Coronado Dr Apollo Beach, FL	4.0	2.0	2086	$3,000	$1.44	24d	1	0.54mi
7217 Wash Island Dr Sun City Center, FL	4.0	3.0	2577	$2,595	$1.01	24d	1	0.63mi
15519 Telford Spring Dr Sun City Center, FL	3.0	2.0	1348	$2,090	$1.55	24d	1	0.64mi
8117 Alamosa Wood Ave Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.0	1346	$1,895	$1.41	24d	1	0.82mi
6196 Hidden Branch Dr Apollo Beach, FL	4.0	2.0	2012	$3,150	$1.57	5d	1	0.86mi
3511 Great Cypress Cir Sun City Center, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1163	$2,509	$2.16	1d	27	0.88mi
5548 Summer Sunset Dr Apollo Beach, FL	4.0	2.5	2073	$2,995	$1.44	22d	1	0.90mi
1110 Evergreen Isles Dr Sun City Center, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	990	$4,263	$4.31	1d	1	1.12mi
4529 Eternal Prince Dr Sun City Center, FL	4.0	2.5	1914	$2,450	$1.28	20d	1	1.19mi
5448 Silver Sun Dr Apollo Beach, FL	4.0	2.0	1992	$4,000	$2.01	24d	1	1.23mi
4408 Eternal Prince Dr Sun City Center, FL	3.0	2.0	1451	$1,800	$1.24	24d	1	1.28mi
6214 Sea Amber Ln Apollo Beach, FL	4.0	3.0	2273	$3,200	$1.41	11d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $86 · $1,032/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-15
   listed $300,000 Active
3. 2018-07-16
   status Pending
4. 2018-06-07
   listed $194,390 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,269 · $439/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,269 · $439/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,070
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$5,269
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,406
• − Management: −$2,406
• − HOA: −$1,032
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$8,074
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,938
• After-tax cash flow: $-987/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Sun City Center

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #178
• US rank: #2736

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living B+ Crime B+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sun City Center, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 35,362
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,362
• Household income: $72,834
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1382.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Black 10% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 10% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.27%
• Current HPI: 272.9767
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.65%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+54.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Listed $300,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-07-16 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-06-07 Listed $194,390 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+62.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,269 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.