9 SE Valencia Ln · River Park, FL 34952

$17,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · SingleFamily · 43 Days on market

Built 1974

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Best Deal in Spanish Lakes!!! 55 & over premier community. Complete renovation ~ New Kitchen, Bathrooms, Flooring, plumbing, tankless water heater, new fixtures, the roof is only 5 years old, Air Conditioner is only 3 years. Painted inside and out. Wonderful community amenities including 2 swimming pools, 9 hole golf course, tennis courts, gym, fishing and more. Lot fee is $779, which also includes trash and lawn care! Located on a cul-de-dac. Will not last at this price!   .

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Community pool
• Built 1974

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Senior community; Community amenities: pool, tennis courts, golf, laundromat, public transportation

Exterior

• Parking: Carport; 2 open parking spaces; Paved driveway
• Utilities: Public sewer; Well water
• Home design: Mobile Home; One-story (single level)
• Construction: Renovated since original construction; Year built reported by owner
• Exterior features: Public transportation access nearby; Community pool; Community tennis courts; Community golf; On-site laundromat; Use GPS for directions

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning; Heating and cooling present
• Interior features: 6 total rooms; Master bathroom included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $18k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $18k).
• Recommended offer: $17k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 97.7% vs local median 6.3% in River Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#451 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, employment F.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 639 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $121 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $525 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $5k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($17k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $16,975 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 10.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 97.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 326.32%
• DSCR: 15.52
• GRM: 0.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $207,000
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15 Jacaranda Ln	0.50mi	1/1.0 (-1)	960 (-4%)	6mo	$199,000	$207	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 17.34×
• Total profit: $80,081
• Equity at exit: $2,609

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 35.94×
• Total profit: $171,183
• Equity at exit: $1,513

Cash invested: $4,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34952

• Home prices YoY: -29.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 639
• Price-to-rent: 0.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,840 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$92
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$22 /mo · $262/yr
• Insurance: −$7
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $1,332

Break-even live

Break-even rent $153

Max offer price $17,500

Occupancy floor 23%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $4,375
• Closing costs: $525
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7700 Pine Lakes Blvd Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1022	$1,878	$1.84	13d	16	0.76mi
1900 Bella Vista Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	995	$1,764	$1.77	13d	15	0.87mi
124 E Arbor Ave Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	1.0	964	$2,550	$2.65	13d	1	0.92mi
13 Lake Vista Trl #205 Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0	1.5	800	$1,375	$1.72	23d	1	1.00mi
14 Lake Vista Trl #101 Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1170	$2,200	$1.88	23d	1	1.02mi
11 Lake Vista Trl #206 Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,400	$1.30	23d	1	1.08mi
8 Lake Vista Trl #205 Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0	1.5	800	$1,500	$1.88	23d	1	1.10mi
26 Lake Vista Trl #201 Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1170	$1,500	$1.28	23d	1	1.12mi
28 Lake Vista Trl #205 Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0	1.5	800	$1,600	$2.00	23d	1	1.15mi
30 Lake Vista Trl #205 Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0	1.5	800	$1,300	$1.62	23d	1	1.17mi
4 Lake Vista Trl #202 Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,700	$1.57	21d	1	1.19mi
2 Lake Vista Trl #107 Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1170	$1,850	$1.58	23d	1	1.23mi
1 Lake Vista Trl #201 Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1170	$1,800	$1.54	23d	1	1.25mi
326 Shady Ln Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1030	$2,250	$2.18	23d	1	1.25mi
730 SE White Ave Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1386	$10,000	$7.22	23d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $17,500 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $17,500 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $17,500 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $17,500 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $17,500 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $17,500 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $17,500 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $17,500 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $17,500 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $17,500 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $17,500 Active 29 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $17,500 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $17,500 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $17,500 Active 26 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $17,500 Active 25 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $17,500 Active 24 DOM
17. 2026-05-06
    listed $17,500 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,077
• − Mortgage interest: −$980
• − Property taxes: −$262
• − Insurance: −$88
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,766
• − Management: −$1,766
• − Depreciation: −$509
• Taxable income: $16,706
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,009
• After-tax cash flow: $11,981/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

Livability — River Park

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #451
• US rank: #8159

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Lucie County · 337,150 people
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,655
• Household income: $61,628
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1759.0

Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 14% Black 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.80%
• Current HPI: 371.0573
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.92%
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Listed $17,500 MLS PIN