404 Saint Thomas Ln · Cahokia Heights, IL 62206

$50,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 63 Days on market

Built 1956 6,534 sqft lot $58/sqft · 33% below area Est $74k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Adorable 3-bedroom home with so much to offer! This charming property features a large living room perfect for relaxing or entertaining, along with a spacious backyard ideal for outdoor enjoyment. A convenient carport provides covered parking, adding to the home’s functionality. Located close to shopping, dining, and schools, this home offers both comfort and convenience. Don’t miss your chance to own for less than renting—schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Close to schools
• Spacious backyard
• Large living room

Tags

• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• CONVENIENT CARPORT
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• CLOSE TO DINING
• CLOSE TO SCHOOLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $785 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $47k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 25.1% vs local median 13.3% in Cahokia Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Cahokia CUSD 187 (suburban): math 3% / reading 5% proficiency, ranked #864 of 919 in IL (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Wirth/Parks Middle School (617 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 85% district-wide (85 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 152 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 783 units permitted in St. Clair County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Clair County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($47k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $36k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $47,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 67.26%
• DSCR: 3.99
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $74,266
• List price: $50,000
• Delta: -32.67%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
502 Saint Thomas Ln	0.03mi	3/1.0	864 (0%)	1mo	$79,900	$92	94
804 Saint Thomas Ln	0.21mi	3/1.0	864 (0%)	0mo	$85,000	$98	86
802 Saint Thomas Ln	0.20mi	3/1.0	864 (0%)	2mo	$105,000	$122	85
713 Saint Norbert Dr	0.34mi	3/1.0	864 (0%)	1mo	$65,000	$75	79
712 Saint Monica Dr	0.27mi	3/1.0	888 (+3%)	2mo	$82,500	$93	78
700 Saint Martin Dr	0.27mi	3/1.0	888 (+3%)	2mo	$105,000	$118	78
508 Saint James Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	962 (+11%)	1mo	$35,000	$36	76
526 Saint Leo Dr	0.19mi	3/1.0	925 (+7%)	2mo	$85,000	$92	74
518 Saint James Dr	0.14mi	3/1.0	967 (+12%)	1mo	$40,000	$41	69
1150 Price St	0.61mi	3/1.0	864 (0%)	1mo	$80,000	$93	67
311 Green St	0.47mi	3/1.0	936 (+8%)	1mo	$54,000	$58	59
457 Mildred Ave	0.73mi	2/1.0 (-1)	840 (-3%)	1mo	$43,000	$51	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 66.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.99×
• Total profit: $41,862
• Equity at exit: $7,455

10-year hold

• IRR: 70.8%
• Equity multiple: 8.20×
• Total profit: $100,755
• Equity at exit: $4,323

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62206

• Home prices YoY: -20.2%
• Active inventory: 152
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,363 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$9 /mo · $109/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$286
• Net cashflow: $785

Break-even live

Break-even rent $370

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 37%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $813	-5% $799	+0% $785	+5% $771	+10% $697
Rent	-10% $677	-5% $731	+0% $785	+5% $839	+10% $892
Rate	-1.0pp $810	-0.5pp $797	base $785	+0.5pp $772	+1.0pp $759

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
500 Saint Thomas Ln East Saint Louis, IL	3.0	1.0	864	$950	$1.10	25d	1	0.03mi
502 Saint Thomas Ln Cahokia, IL	3.0	1.0	864	$1,400	$1.62	0d	1	0.04mi
148 Saint James Ln East Saint Louis, IL	3.0	1.0	864	$1,200	$1.39	45d	1	0.07mi
101 E 5th St Cahokia, IL	2.0	1.0	770	$900	$1.17	45d	1	0.15mi
124 Saint James Ln Cahokia Heights, IL	3.0	1.0	1064	$1,350	$1.27	45d	1	0.18mi
526 Saint Leo Dr East Saint Louis, IL	3.0	1.0	925	$1,400	$1.51	5d	1	0.19mi
111 Saint Thomas Ln East Saint Louis, IL	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,350	$1.30	45d	1	0.23mi
811 Saint Thomas Ln East Saint Louis, IL	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,295	$1.25	25d	1	0.26mi
811 Saint Thomas Ln East Saint Louis, IL	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,295	$1.25	0d	1	0.26mi
121 Saint Dorothy Dr Cahokia, IL	3.0	1.0	988	$1,500	$1.52	45d	1	0.27mi
705 Saint Martin Dr East Saint Louis, IL	4.0	1.0	1033	$1,600	$1.55	24d	1	0.29mi
142 Saint Barbara Ln East Saint Louis, IL	3.0	2.0	990	$1,300	$1.31	45d	1	0.39mi
701 Saint Paul Dr East Saint Louis, IL	3.0	1.0	864	$1,500	$1.74	45d	1	0.40mi
1150 Price St Cahokia, IL	3.0	1.0	864	$1,400	$1.62	5d	1	0.62mi
1162 Smith St East Saint Louis, IL	3.0	1.0	988	$1,295	$1.31	24d	1	0.69mi
1109 Saint Helena Dr Cahokia Heights, IL	3.0	1.0	825	$1,400	$1.70	5d	1	0.80mi
1115 Saint Marcella Dr East Saint Louis, IL	3.0	1.0	864	$1,500	$1.74	16d	1	0.87mi
819 Mildred Ave East Saint Louis, IL	3.0	1.0	936	$1,250	$1.34	24d	1	0.92mi
1130 Water St East Saint Louis, IL	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,450	$1.32	25d	1	0.94mi
1002 Upper Cahokia Rd East Saint Louis, IL	3.0	1.0	720	$860	$1.19	16d	1	1.00mi
818 La Salle Dr East Saint Louis, IL	3.0	1.0	1106	$1,300	$1.18	25d	1	1.04mi
1220 Williams St East Saint Louis, IL	3.0	1.0	876	$1,500	$1.71	16d	1	1.10mi
1308 Saint Stephens Dr Cahokia Heights, IL	2.0	1.0	864	$875	$1.01	18d	1	1.14mi
1308 Saint Stephens Dr Cahokia Heights, IL	2.0	1.0	864	$875	$1.01	16d	1	1.14mi
850 Saint Bartholomew Dr Cahokia, IL	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,285	$1.22	0d	1	1.28mi
850 Saint Bartholomew Dr Cahokia, IL	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,285	$1.22	18d	1	1.28mi
1405 Williams St Cahokia Heights, IL	3.0	1.0	900	$1,500	$1.67	45d	1	1.33mi
1417 Richard Dr East Saint Louis, IL	3.0	1.0	936	$1,400	$1.50	24d	1	1.36mi
58 David St East Saint Louis, IL	3.0	1.0	900	$1,450	$1.61	45d	1	1.37mi
1421 Richard Dr East Saint Louis, IL	3.0	1.0	936	$1,100	$1.18	4d	1	1.38mi
211 Judith Ln East Saint Louis, IL	2.0	1.0	672	$995	$1.48	6d	1	1.46mi
1706 Andrews Dr East Saint Louis, IL	4.0	1.0	925	$1,320	$1.43	25d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $50,000 Pending 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $50,000 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $50,000 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-03-30
   listed $50,000 Active 473-char remark

   Show marketing remark (473 chars)

   Adorable 3-bedroom home with so much to offer! This charming property features a large living room perfect for relaxing or entertaining, along with a spacious backyard ideal for outdoor enjoyment. A convenient carport provides covered parking, adding to the home’s functionality. Located close to shopping, dining, and schools, this home offers both comfort and convenience. Don’t miss your chance to own for less than renting—schedule your showing today!

5. 2019-03-05
   soldstatus Closed 308-char remark

   Show marketing remark (308 chars)

   MOTIVATED SELLER!!!! Property is a 2 bedroom home with a Bonus Room that used to be a bedroom. Bonus room has a fireplace and could be used as a Den/Study. Has an attached Carport, Fenced yard and Patio. Property has a Long Term Tenant that rents for $675/mo. Great Starter Home or Investment Property!!!

6. 2019-01-21
   status Pending 308-char remark

   Show marketing remark (308 chars)

   MOTIVATED SELLER!!!! Property is a 2 bedroom home with a Bonus Room that used to be a bedroom. Bonus room has a fireplace and could be used as a Den/Study. Has an attached Carport, Fenced yard and Patio. Property has a Long Term Tenant that rents for $675/mo. Great Starter Home or Investment Property!!!

7. 2018-07-02
   listed $18,000 Active 308-char remark

   Show marketing remark (308 chars)

   MOTIVATED SELLER!!!! Property is a 2 bedroom home with a Bonus Room that used to be a bedroom. Bonus room has a fireplace and could be used as a Den/Study. Has an attached Carport, Fenced yard and Patio. Property has a Long Term Tenant that rents for $675/mo. Great Starter Home or Investment Property!!!

8. 2017-11-09
   price $19,000
9. 2005-11-01
   soldstatus $36,000
10. 1996-10-24
    soldstatus $26,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $109 · $9/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $622 · $52/mo
• Expected delta: +$513/yr (+$43/mo · 472.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,356
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$109
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,308
• − Management: −$1,308
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $9,125
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,190
• After-tax cash flow: $7,226/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cahokia CUSD 187
• NCES district ID: 1708040
• Math proficiency: 3% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 5% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $28,028
• Composite: 6.44/100
• National rank: #14827
• State rank: #864 of 919 in IL

Livability — Cahokia Heights

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cahokia Heights, IL
• County: Saint Clair County · 169,691 people
• City population: 19,956
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 12,959
• Household income: $33,838
• Rent vs Own: 44.5% rent · 55.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 729.0

Population outlook (St. Clair County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 250,366 people
• By 2030: 240,511 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 217,391 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 192,699 · -23.0%
• By 2075: 140,637 · -43.8%
• By 2100: 100,499 · -59.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% White 29% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Clair

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+7.9) · D 53.0% · R 45.1% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: 22.4pp · 2024: 7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+7.9 2020: D+8.7 2016: D+5.6 2012: D+14.5 2008: D+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -33.26%
• Current HPI: 131.5144
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+92.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Listed $50,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-03-05 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-01-21 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-07-02 Listed $18,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-11-09 Price Changed $19,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $36,000 Public Records
• 1996-10-24 Sold (Public Records) $26,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-21.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $109 · -94.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.