227 Lake Dr · Dingman, PA 18328

$189,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Land public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1983 0.28 ac lot $141/sqft · 792% above area $90/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

NEW PLUMBING NEW KITCHEN NEW INTERIOR!!Modern A-Frame RetreatDiscover iconic design meets modern comfort in this stunning, sun-drenched A-frame retreat surrounded by lush woods. Interior features soaring ceilings, dramatic floor-to-ceiling windows, updated flooring, new plumbing, and a reimagined kitchen with butcher-block countertops and modern finishes throughout. Exterior offers an expansive wraparound deck and peaceful natural surroundings. While the interior renovations have already been completed, the exterior still needs work and the FOUNDATION requires repair, making this a great opportunity for buyers looking to add value and finish the property to their vision. Amenities include

Key facts

• New plumbing
• New kitchen
• Community clubhouse

Tags

• NEW PLUMBING
• NEW KITCHEN
• EXPANSIVE WRAPAROUND DECK
• FLOOR TO CEILING WINDOWS
• BUTCHER BLOCK COUNTERTOPS
• COMMUNITY CLUBHOUSE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Private maintained paved road and private road frontage; Subdivision: Marcel Lake Estates; Directions: Enter Marcel Lake Estates; right on Lake Dr; house on right (#227)
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee; Annual association fee: $1,076 (about $89.67/mo); Association covers snow removal and trash; Community amenities: gated entry, clubhouse, pool, tennis courts, playground, lake access, fishing, beach access

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Phone available; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family house; One and one-half stories; No common walls
• Construction: Wood siding; Crawl space foundation; Built with shingle roof (not specified explicitly)
• Exterior features: Gas grill; Storage; Deck with wrap-around porch; No fencing; Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Refrigerator; Range
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 4
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Fireplace heating; Wall unit cooling
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; High ceilings; Living room wood-burning fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $288 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (0.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $183k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Delaware Valley SD (rural): math 41% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #121 of 539 in PA (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 213 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,330 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.54%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $14,182
• List price: $189,000
• Delta: 1232.68%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.29×
• Total profit: $121,262
• Equity at exit: $170,266

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.47×
• Total profit: $342,569
• Equity at exit: $367,185

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18328

• Home prices YoY: 18.1%
• Active inventory: 213
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,875 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$33 /mo · $395/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$90
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$394
• Net cashflow: $288

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,510

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $395	-5% $342	+0% $288	+5% $20	+10% $-46
Rent	-10% $140	-5% $214	+0% $288	+5% $362	+10% $437
Rate	-1.0pp $384	-0.5pp $336	base $288	+0.5pp $239	+1.0pp $190

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
143 Nichecronk Rd Dingmans Ferry, PA	3.0	1.5	1024	$1,800	$1.76	45d	1	1.16mi
143 Nichecronk Rd Dingmans Ferry, PA	3.0	1.5	1024	$1,950	$1.90	0d	1	1.16mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $90 · $1,080/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,000 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,000 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $189,000 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $189,000 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $189,000 Active 37 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $189,000 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $189,000 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $189,000 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-05-06
   price $199,995 475-char remark
10. 2026-04-27
    listed $214,999 Active 475-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $395 · $33/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,691 · $141/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,295/yr (+$108/mo · 327.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,500
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$395
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,800
• − Management: −$1,800
• − HOA: −$1,080
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable income: $394
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$95
• After-tax cash flow: $3,366/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Delaware Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4207530
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $64,202
• Composite: 46.95/100
• National rank: #2359
• State rank: #121 of 539 in PA

Livability — Dingman

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,061

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 6% Romanian 6% Iranian 4%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 5% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 38.13%
• Current HPI: 248.4494
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-12.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Price Changed $189,000 PWMLS
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $199,995 PWMLS
• 2026-04-27 Listed $214,999 PWMLS

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $395 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.