459 Danube Dr · Poinciana, FL 34759

$199,990

6 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,884 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 25 Days on market

Built 2005 0.26 ac lot $81/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Back on the market, the buyer was unable to secure financing. Their loss, your gain!!Looking for space? At almost 4000 square foot, this 6/4.5, 3 car garage, 1/4 acre property has so many possibilities. 1st floor features formal areas, family room / kitchen combo, walk-in pantry, 1/2 bathroom and 1 bedroom suite with full bathroom. Upstairs is the master bedroom with two walk-in closets, dual vanities and separate shower and tub. Down the hall is 4 additional bedrooms with 2 full bathrooms and a loft. Stop by today and take a look at this great opportunity.

Key facts

• Rare opportunity
• Large backyard
• 0.26 acre lot

Tags

• RARE OPPORTUNITY
• MULTIPLE LIVING AREAS
• LARGE BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $241 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $197k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 4.3% in Poinciana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#859 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 1151 active listings in the ZIP; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $196,990 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.16%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.48% appreciation · 1.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-8,227
• Equity at exit: $43,722

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $7,870
• Equity at exit: $42,136

Cash invested: $55,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34759

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 1151
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,417 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$455 /mo · $5,463/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$81
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$508
• Net cashflow: $241

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,112

Max offer price $199,990

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,998
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $81 · $972/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2025-05-12
   status Pending
2. 2025-04-17
   listed $199,990 Active
3. 2022-04-04
   soldstatus $336,600
4. 2022-03-17
   soldstatus $336,600 Closed 563-char remark

   Show marketing remark (563 chars)

   Back on the market, the buyer was unable to secure financing. Their loss, your gain!!Looking for space? At almost 4000 square foot, this 6/4.5, 3 car garage, 1/4 acre property has so many possibilities. 1st floor features formal areas, family room / kitchen combo, walk-in pantry, 1/2 bathroom and 1 bedroom suite with full bathroom. Upstairs is the master bedroom with two walk-in closets, dual vanities and separate shower and tub. Down the hall is 4 additional bedrooms with 2 full bathrooms and a loft. Stop by today and take a look at this great opportunity.

5. 2022-01-31
   status Pending 563-char remark

   Show marketing remark (563 chars)

   Back on the market, the buyer was unable to secure financing. Their loss, your gain!!Looking for space? At almost 4000 square foot, this 6/4.5, 3 car garage, 1/4 acre property has so many possibilities. 1st floor features formal areas, family room / kitchen combo, walk-in pantry, 1/2 bathroom and 1 bedroom suite with full bathroom. Upstairs is the master bedroom with two walk-in closets, dual vanities and separate shower and tub. Down the hall is 4 additional bedrooms with 2 full bathrooms and a loft. Stop by today and take a look at this great opportunity.

6. 2022-01-21
   status Active 563-char remark

   Show marketing remark (563 chars)

   Back on the market, the buyer was unable to secure financing. Their loss, your gain!!Looking for space? At almost 4000 square foot, this 6/4.5, 3 car garage, 1/4 acre property has so many possibilities. 1st floor features formal areas, family room / kitchen combo, walk-in pantry, 1/2 bathroom and 1 bedroom suite with full bathroom. Upstairs is the master bedroom with two walk-in closets, dual vanities and separate shower and tub. Down the hall is 4 additional bedrooms with 2 full bathrooms and a loft. Stop by today and take a look at this great opportunity.

7. 2021-12-17
   status Pending 563-char remark

   Show marketing remark (563 chars)

   Back on the market, the buyer was unable to secure financing. Their loss, your gain!!Looking for space? At almost 4000 square foot, this 6/4.5, 3 car garage, 1/4 acre property has so many possibilities. 1st floor features formal areas, family room / kitchen combo, walk-in pantry, 1/2 bathroom and 1 bedroom suite with full bathroom. Upstairs is the master bedroom with two walk-in closets, dual vanities and separate shower and tub. Down the hall is 4 additional bedrooms with 2 full bathrooms and a loft. Stop by today and take a look at this great opportunity.

8. 2021-12-10
   status Active 563-char remark

   Show marketing remark (563 chars)

   Back on the market, the buyer was unable to secure financing. Their loss, your gain!!Looking for space? At almost 4000 square foot, this 6/4.5, 3 car garage, 1/4 acre property has so many possibilities. 1st floor features formal areas, family room / kitchen combo, walk-in pantry, 1/2 bathroom and 1 bedroom suite with full bathroom. Upstairs is the master bedroom with two walk-in closets, dual vanities and separate shower and tub. Down the hall is 4 additional bedrooms with 2 full bathrooms and a loft. Stop by today and take a look at this great opportunity.

9. 2021-12-07
   status Pending 563-char remark

   Show marketing remark (563 chars)

   Back on the market, the buyer was unable to secure financing. Their loss, your gain!!Looking for space? At almost 4000 square foot, this 6/4.5, 3 car garage, 1/4 acre property has so many possibilities. 1st floor features formal areas, family room / kitchen combo, walk-in pantry, 1/2 bathroom and 1 bedroom suite with full bathroom. Upstairs is the master bedroom with two walk-in closets, dual vanities and separate shower and tub. Down the hall is 4 additional bedrooms with 2 full bathrooms and a loft. Stop by today and take a look at this great opportunity.

10. 2021-11-29
    status Active 563-char remark

    Show marketing remark (563 chars)

    Back on the market, the buyer was unable to secure financing. Their loss, your gain!!Looking for space? At almost 4000 square foot, this 6/4.5, 3 car garage, 1/4 acre property has so many possibilities. 1st floor features formal areas, family room / kitchen combo, walk-in pantry, 1/2 bathroom and 1 bedroom suite with full bathroom. Upstairs is the master bedroom with two walk-in closets, dual vanities and separate shower and tub. Down the hall is 4 additional bedrooms with 2 full bathrooms and a loft. Stop by today and take a look at this great opportunity.

11. 2021-11-26
    status Active 563-char remark

    Show marketing remark (563 chars)

    Back on the market, the buyer was unable to secure financing. Their loss, your gain!!Looking for space? At almost 4000 square foot, this 6/4.5, 3 car garage, 1/4 acre property has so many possibilities. 1st floor features formal areas, family room / kitchen combo, walk-in pantry, 1/2 bathroom and 1 bedroom suite with full bathroom. Upstairs is the master bedroom with two walk-in closets, dual vanities and separate shower and tub. Down the hall is 4 additional bedrooms with 2 full bathrooms and a loft. Stop by today and take a look at this great opportunity.

12. 2021-11-08
    status Pending 563-char remark

    Show marketing remark (563 chars)

    Back on the market, the buyer was unable to secure financing. Their loss, your gain!!Looking for space? At almost 4000 square foot, this 6/4.5, 3 car garage, 1/4 acre property has so many possibilities. 1st floor features formal areas, family room / kitchen combo, walk-in pantry, 1/2 bathroom and 1 bedroom suite with full bathroom. Upstairs is the master bedroom with two walk-in closets, dual vanities and separate shower and tub. Down the hall is 4 additional bedrooms with 2 full bathrooms and a loft. Stop by today and take a look at this great opportunity.

13. 2021-11-05
    status Active 563-char remark

    Show marketing remark (563 chars)

    Back on the market, the buyer was unable to secure financing. Their loss, your gain!!Looking for space? At almost 4000 square foot, this 6/4.5, 3 car garage, 1/4 acre property has so many possibilities. 1st floor features formal areas, family room / kitchen combo, walk-in pantry, 1/2 bathroom and 1 bedroom suite with full bathroom. Upstairs is the master bedroom with two walk-in closets, dual vanities and separate shower and tub. Down the hall is 4 additional bedrooms with 2 full bathrooms and a loft. Stop by today and take a look at this great opportunity.

14. 2021-10-28
    status Pending 563-char remark

    Show marketing remark (563 chars)

    Back on the market, the buyer was unable to secure financing. Their loss, your gain!!Looking for space? At almost 4000 square foot, this 6/4.5, 3 car garage, 1/4 acre property has so many possibilities. 1st floor features formal areas, family room / kitchen combo, walk-in pantry, 1/2 bathroom and 1 bedroom suite with full bathroom. Upstairs is the master bedroom with two walk-in closets, dual vanities and separate shower and tub. Down the hall is 4 additional bedrooms with 2 full bathrooms and a loft. Stop by today and take a look at this great opportunity.

15. 2021-10-25
    listed $325,000 Active 563-char remark

    Show marketing remark (563 chars)

    Back on the market, the buyer was unable to secure financing. Their loss, your gain!!Looking for space? At almost 4000 square foot, this 6/4.5, 3 car garage, 1/4 acre property has so many possibilities. 1st floor features formal areas, family room / kitchen combo, walk-in pantry, 1/2 bathroom and 1 bedroom suite with full bathroom. Upstairs is the master bedroom with two walk-in closets, dual vanities and separate shower and tub. Down the hall is 4 additional bedrooms with 2 full bathrooms and a loft. Stop by today and take a look at this great opportunity.

16. 2005-02-07
    soldstatus $37,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,463 · $455/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,463 · $455/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,001
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$5,463
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,320
• − Management: −$2,320
• − HOA: −$972
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$95
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$23
• After-tax cash flow: $2,913/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Poinciana

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #859
• US rank: #21760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Poinciana, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 91,336
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 44,568
• Household income: $69,373
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1186.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 21% Two or more races 20% Black 19%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 38% Cuban 6% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 48% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.48%
• Current HPI: 276.6861
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.14%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+440.5% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2025-05-12 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-17 Listed $199,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-04 Sold (Public Records) $336,600 Public Records
• 2022-03-17 Sold (MLS) $336,600 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-01-31 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-01-21 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-17 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-10 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-07 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-29 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-26 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-08 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-05 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-28 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-25 Listed $325,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-02-07 Sold (Public Records) $37,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,463 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.