2804 Vanda Ave · Lubbock, TX 79404

$89,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 936 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 163 Days on market

Built 1959 8,530 sqft lot $96/sqft · 78% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.5/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Freshly remodeled home ready for new owners! New roof, sewer line, windows, flooring, electrical, and so much more! Large backyard with storage/workshop.

Key facts

• New flooring
• New electrical
• New roof

Tags

• REMODELED HOME
• NEW ROOF
• NEW SEWER LINE
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW ELECTRICAL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $295 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.2% local appreciation)).
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 163 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 163 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.05%
• DSCR: 1.63
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $50,517
• List price: $89,900
• Delta: 77.96%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.22% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.22×
• Total profit: $30,643
• Equity at exit: $41,559

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.24×
• Total profit: $81,443
• Equity at exit: $64,944

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79404

• Home prices YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,071 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $510/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$225
• Net cashflow: $295

Break-even live

Break-even rent $698

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3113 Teak Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1088	$695	$0.64	21d	1	0.27mi
3113 Teak Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1088	$750	$0.69	43d	1	0.27mi
1704 E 29th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	832	$775	$0.93	21d	1	0.31mi
2906 Beech Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	912	$1,200	$1.32	43d	1	0.33mi
1516 E 27th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1025	$1,195	$1.17	43d	1	0.34mi
2806 E 30th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	912	$900	$0.99	43d	1	0.42mi
1903 E 15th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	950	$1,075	$1.13	13d	1	0.93mi
2123 E Broadway Unit 2 Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	963	$950	$0.99	21d	1	1.13mi
2117 E Broadway Unit 1 Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	963	$950	$0.99	43d	1	1.13mi
2226 E Main St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,150	$1.05	43d	1	1.16mi
505 E 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	960	$1,125	$1.17	13d	1	1.18mi
824 Vanda Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	832	$750	$0.90	43d	1	1.24mi
808 Vanda Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	832	$695	$0.84	21d	1	1.32mi
1014 David Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,030	$1.00	13d	1	1.34mi
804 David Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,049	$1.02	13d	1	1.45mi
3621 E 15th Pl Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,114	$1.08	43d	1	1.46mi
209 36th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	750	$750	$1.00	43d	1	1.49mi
211 36th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	750	$775	$1.03	43d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,900 Active 163 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,900 Active 162 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,900 Active 161 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,900 Active 160 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,900 Active 158 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,900 Active 157 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $89,900 Active 155 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,900 Active 154 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,900 Active 153 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,900 Active 152 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $89,900 Active 149 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,900 Active 148 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,900 Active 147 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,900 Active 146 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,900 Active 145 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $89,900 Active 144 DOM
17. 2026-04-01
    status Active 153-char remark

    Show marketing remark (153 chars)

    Freshly remodeled home ready for new owners! New roof, sewer line, windows, flooring, electrical, and so much more! Large backyard with storage/workshop.

18. 2026-04-01
    historical 153-char remark

    Show marketing remark (153 chars)

    Freshly remodeled home ready for new owners! New roof, sewer line, windows, flooring, electrical, and so much more! Large backyard with storage/workshop.

19. 2026-03-27
    price $89,900 153-char remark

    Show marketing remark (153 chars)

    Freshly remodeled home ready for new owners! New roof, sewer line, windows, flooring, electrical, and so much more! Large backyard with storage/workshop.

20. 2026-01-01
    listed $95,000 Active 153-char remark

    Show marketing remark (153 chars)

    Freshly remodeled home ready for new owners! New roof, sewer line, windows, flooring, electrical, and so much more! Large backyard with storage/workshop.

21. 2026-01-01
    listed $95,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (153 chars)

    Freshly remodeled home ready for new owners! New roof, sewer line, windows, flooring, electrical, and so much more! Large backyard with storage/workshop.

22. 2025-11-13
    price $103,000
23. 2025-04-15
    soldstatus
24. 2025-04-04
    soldstatus Closed
25. 2025-03-24
    status Pending
26. 2025-03-05
    price $37,500
27. 2025-02-20
    price $40,000
28. 2025-02-10
    price $42,500
29. 2025-01-24
    listed $45,000 Active
30. 2003-10-01
    soldstatus
31. 2003-02-01
    soldstatus
32. 1986-01-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $510 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,645 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,136/yr (+$95/mo · 222.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,852
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$510
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,028
• − Management: −$1,028
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $2,186
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$525
• After-tax cash flow: $3,012/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 8,529
• Household income: $51,630
• Rent vs Own: 31.0% rent · 69.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 366.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% Black 22% White 20% Two or more races 17% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 46%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 0%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.22%
• Current HPI: 163.854
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+99.8% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Relisted — LARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Delisted — LARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $89,900 LARMLS
• 2026-01-01 Listed $95,000 LARMLS
• 2026-01-01 Listed $95,000 LARMLS
• 2025-11-13 Price Changed $103,000 LARMLS
• 2025-04-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-04-04 Sold (MLS) — LARMLS
• 2025-03-24 Pending — LARMLS
• 2025-03-05 Price Changed $37,500 LARMLS
• 2025-02-20 Price Changed $40,000 LARMLS
• 2025-02-10 Price Changed $42,500 LARMLS
• 2025-01-24 Listed $45,000 LARMLS
• 2003-10-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-02-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1986-01-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $510 · -54.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.