34 Nogales Way · River Park, FL 34952

$235,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,756 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 140 Days on market

Built 2021 5,227 sqft lot Est $295k · 20% under $703/mo HOA · 16% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spanish Lakes One is an Active 55+ Community. Guaranteed lifetime lot rent on all new CBS homes, with No HOA fees. We have over 10,000 residents living in our communities. Included in your lot rent all amenities are free; golf, heated pools, huge clubhouse & tennis! Quality concrete-block home, including a metal roof, stainless steel appliances, granite counter-tops, cherry wood cabinets

Key facts

• Heated pools
• Metal roof
• Plantation shutters

Tags

• METAL ROOF
• IMPACT WINDOWS
• PLANTATION SHUTTERS
• SCREENED PORCH
• HEATED POOLS
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in a senior community
• Financial info: Pets not allowed in this community
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee (fee listed); Community amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, pool, spa/hot tub, golf course, tennis courts, pickleball and bocce courts, shuffleboard, billiard room, library, community room, management, and on-site manager

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1.5 spaces, covered)
• Security: Smoke detectors; Security system
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Water and sewer available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Faces east; Resale condition
• Construction: Block/Stucco/CBS construction; Metal roof; Built with a foundation typical of the area
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Screened patio; Open porch; Patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; Walk-in closets; Split bedroom layout; Plantation shutters
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry with washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $235k).
• Recommended offer: $207k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.0% vs local median 6.3% in River Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#451 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute A-; Watch: amenities F, employment F, health & safety D-.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Savanna Ridge Elementary School (math 40% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,383 of 2,144 statewide, top 65%, 452 students, 75% FRL); Port St. Lucie High School (math 21% / reading 43%, grade F, #415 of 667 statewide, top 63%, 1,748 students, 67% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 639 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,368/mo this rent would consume 85% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 1759% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $66k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 140 days — a 12% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $23k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $190k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 140 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.86% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.47%
• DSCR: 1.91
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $295,008
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
34 Oro Grande Way	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,723 (-2%)	3mo	$200,000	$116	89
15 Florida Way	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,756 (0%)	12mo	$295,000	$168	82
18 Golf Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,767 (+1%)	11mo	$260,000	$147	74
8313 Maidencane Pl	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,846 (+5%)	8mo	$379,000	$205	64
8241 Maidencane Pl	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,656 (-6%)	12mo	$360,000	$217	62
11 Isabella Ln	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,975 (+12%)	18mo	$305,000	$154	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $29,219
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.53×
• Total profit: $100,678
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34952

• Home prices YoY: -29.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 639
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,368 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$295 /mo · $3,535/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$703
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$917
• Net cashflow: $1,123

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,947

Max offer price $235,000

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7700 Pine Lakes Blvd Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1022	$2,212	$2.16	13d	16	1.05mi
71 W Caribbean Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1417	$1,700	$1.20	23d	1	1.36mi
762 SE River Ln Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	2032	$11,000	$5.41	23d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $703 · $8,436/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $235,000 Active 140 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $235,000 Active 139 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $235,000 Active 138 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $235,000 Active 137 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $235,000 Active 135 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $235,000 Active 134 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $235,000 Active 132 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $235,000 Active 131 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $235,000 Active 130 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $235,000 Active 129 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $235,000 Active 126 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $235,000 Active 125 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $235,000 Active 124 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $235,000 Active 123 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $235,000 Active 122 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $235,000 Active 121 DOM
17. 2026-03-26
    price $235,000
18. 2026-02-27
    price $248,900
19. 2026-01-29
    listed $258,000 Active
20. 2021-02-20
    soldstatus $190,000 Closed 396-char remark

    Show marketing remark (396 chars)

    Spanish Lakes One is an Active 55+ Community. Guaranteed lifetime lot rent on all new CBS homes, with No HOA fees. We have over 10,000 residents living in our communities. Included in your lot rent all amenities are free; golf, heated pools, huge clubhouse & tennis! Quality concrete-block home, including a metal roof, stainless steel appliances, granite counter-tops, cherry wood cabinets

21. 2021-01-20
    soldstatus $180,000 Closed 802-char remark

    Show marketing remark (802 chars)

    Spanish Lakes One is an Active 55+ Community. We offer Guaranteed Lifetime lot rent on all new CBS homes, with No HOA fees. We have over 10,000 residents living in our communities. Included in your lot rent all amenities are free; golf, heated pools, huge clubhouse and tennis! Our objective is to provide homeowners with the highest quality concrete-block home, at the most affordable price, including a metal roof, stainless steel appliances, granite counter-tops & cherry wood cabinets. We offer unique in-house financing & no-prepayment penalties, no points, no application fee, no survey, no appraisal fee, no title insurance, no Private Mortgage Insurance and no origination fee. ALL houses offered are brand new, don't miss out on these unbelievable prices. Start your new lifestyle now!

22. 2020-10-14
    status Pending 802-char remark

    Show marketing remark (396 chars)

    Spanish Lakes One is an Active 55+ Community. Guaranteed lifetime lot rent on all new CBS homes, with No HOA fees. We have over 10,000 residents living in our communities. Included in your lot rent all amenities are free; golf, heated pools, huge clubhouse & tennis! Quality concrete-block home, including a metal roof, stainless steel appliances, granite counter-tops, cherry wood cabinets

23. 2020-10-14
    status Pending 396-char remark

    Show marketing remark (396 chars)

    Spanish Lakes One is an Active 55+ Community. Guaranteed lifetime lot rent on all new CBS homes, with No HOA fees. We have over 10,000 residents living in our communities. Included in your lot rent all amenities are free; golf, heated pools, huge clubhouse & tennis! Quality concrete-block home, including a metal roof, stainless steel appliances, granite counter-tops, cherry wood cabinets

24. 2020-10-14
    price $190,000 396-char remark

    Show marketing remark (396 chars)

    Spanish Lakes One is an Active 55+ Community. Guaranteed lifetime lot rent on all new CBS homes, with No HOA fees. We have over 10,000 residents living in our communities. Included in your lot rent all amenities are free; golf, heated pools, huge clubhouse & tennis! Quality concrete-block home, including a metal roof, stainless steel appliances, granite counter-tops, cherry wood cabinets

25. 2020-06-25
    listed $180,000 Active 396-char remark

    Show marketing remark (396 chars)

    Spanish Lakes One is an Active 55+ Community. Guaranteed lifetime lot rent on all new CBS homes, with No HOA fees. We have over 10,000 residents living in our communities. Included in your lot rent all amenities are free; golf, heated pools, huge clubhouse & tennis! Quality concrete-block home, including a metal roof, stainless steel appliances, granite counter-tops, cherry wood cabinets

26. 2019-12-23
    listed $180,000 Active 802-char remark

    Show marketing remark (802 chars)

    Spanish Lakes One is an Active 55+ Community. We offer Guaranteed Lifetime lot rent on all new CBS homes, with No HOA fees. We have over 10,000 residents living in our communities. Included in your lot rent all amenities are free; golf, heated pools, huge clubhouse and tennis! Our objective is to provide homeowners with the highest quality concrete-block home, at the most affordable price, including a metal roof, stainless steel appliances, granite counter-tops & cherry wood cabinets. We offer unique in-house financing & no-prepayment penalties, no points, no application fee, no survey, no appraisal fee, no title insurance, no Private Mortgage Insurance and no origination fee. ALL houses offered are brand new, don't miss out on these unbelievable prices. Start your new lifestyle now!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,535 · $295/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,535 · $295/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $52,412
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$3,535
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,193
• − Management: −$4,193
• − HOA: −$8,436
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable income: $10,880
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,611
• After-tax cash flow: $10,860/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

Livability — River Park

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #451
• US rank: #8159

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Lucie County · 337,150 people
• City population: 221,051
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,655
• Household income: $61,628
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1759.0

Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 14% Black 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.80%
• Current HPI: 371.0573
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.92%
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+30.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $235,000 Beaches MLS
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $248,900 Beaches MLS
• 2026-01-29 Listed $258,000 Beaches MLS
• 2021-02-20 Sold (MLS) $190,000 RAIRCMLS
• 2021-01-20 Sold (MLS) $180,000 Beaches MLS
• 2020-10-14 Pending — Beaches MLS
• 2020-10-14 Pending — RAIRCMLS
• 2020-10-14 Price Changed $190,000 RAIRCMLS
• 2020-06-25 Listed $180,000 RAIRCMLS
• 2019-12-23 Listed $180,000 Beaches MLS

Property tax history

+9.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,535 · +6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.