4715 Lumley St · Detroit, MI 48210

$55,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,076 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1920 3,485 sqft lot $51/sqft · 45% below area Est $100k · 45% under ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled at 4715 Lumley ST, Detroit, MI, this single-family residence offers an opportunity to own a piece of Detroit's history. Built in 1920, this property holds the charm of a bygone era, awaiting its transformation. This residence provides three bedrooms, offering space for rest and rejuvenation. Imagine each room as a personal canvas, ready for your unique design and comforting touches. This residence offers a unique opportunity to craft a living space that reflects your personal style.

Key facts

• 3,485 sq ft lot
• Built 1920
• Listed 29 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $525 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $54k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.2% vs local median 10.2% in Detroit — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#218 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Detroit Public Schools Community District (urban): math 10% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #499 of 540 in MI (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($54k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $54,175 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 46.07%
• DSCR: 3.05
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $99,605
• List price: $55,000
• Delta: -44.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4715 Lumley St	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,076 (0%)	1mo	$45,000	$42	99
4291 Lawndale St	0.37mi	3/1.0	1,078 (+0%)	4mo	$105,000	$97	79
5427 Central St	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,102 (+2%)	4mo	$80,000	$73	76
4380 Springwells St	0.20mi	3/1.0	1,000 (-7%)	14mo	$55,000	$55	68
4114 Central St	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,030 (-4%)	10mo	$139,000	$135	62
5626 Lawndale St	0.57mi	3/1.5	990 (-8%)	3mo	$130,000	$131	56
4366 Western St	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,038 (-4%)	1mo	$158,000	$152	56
5855 Lonyo St	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,153 (+7%)	5mo	$50,000	$43	54
8120 Kirkwood St	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,017 (-6%)	7mo	$125,000	$123	51
5788 Lawndale St	0.69mi	3/1.0	999 (-7%)	8mo	$100,000	$100	49
7425 Parkwood St	0.39mi	3/2.5	976 (-9%)	14mo	$140,000	$143	49
6656 Moyes St	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,168 (+9%)	16mo	$129,000	$110	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.59×
• Total profit: $24,563
• Equity at exit: $8,201

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.20×
• Total profit: $64,641
• Equity at exit: $4,755

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48210

• Home prices YoY: -22.3%
• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,217 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $708/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$256
• Net cashflow: $525

Break-even live

Break-even rent $553

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 52%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $556	-5% $540	+0% $525	+5% $509	+10% $494
Rent	-10% $429	-5% $477	+0% $525	+5% $573	+10% $621
Rate	-1.0pp $552	-0.5pp $539	base $525	+0.5pp $511	+1.0pp $496

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2508 Inglis St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	750	$1,100	$1.47	25d	1	1.22mi
4031 Wesson St Apt 109 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,190	$1.19	44d	1	1.25mi
7424 Wykes St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,100	$0.92	44d	1	1.29mi
2488 Woodmere St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,453	$1.45	5d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-21
   listed $55,000 Active 495-char remark

   Show marketing remark (495 chars)

   Nestled at 4715 Lumley ST, Detroit, MI, this single-family residence offers an opportunity to own a piece of Detroit's history. Built in 1920, this property holds the charm of a bygone era, awaiting its transformation. This residence provides three bedrooms, offering space for rest and rejuvenation. Imagine each room as a personal canvas, ready for your unique design and comforting touches. This residence offers a unique opportunity to craft a living space that reflects your personal style.

2. 2026-04-21
   listed $55,000 Active 495-char remark

   Show marketing remark (495 chars)

   Nestled at 4715 Lumley ST, Detroit, MI, this single-family residence offers an opportunity to own a piece of Detroit's history. Built in 1920, this property holds the charm of a bygone era, awaiting its transformation. This residence provides three bedrooms, offering space for rest and rejuvenation. Imagine each room as a personal canvas, ready for your unique design and comforting touches. This residence offers a unique opportunity to craft a living space that reflects your personal style.

3. 2026-04-17
   historical
4. 2026-04-17
   historical
5. 2026-03-10
   price $50,000
6. 2026-03-10
   price $50,000
7. 2025-11-25
   price $60,000
8. 2025-11-24
   price $60,000
9. 2025-10-22
   listed $70,000 Active
10. 2025-10-22
    listed $70,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $708 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $778 · $65/mo
• Expected delta: +$69/yr (+$6/mo · 9.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 76% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,606
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$708
• − Insurance: −$1,072
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,168
• − Management: −$1,168
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $5,808
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,394
• After-tax cash flow: $4,903/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Detroit Public Schools Community District
• NCES district ID: 2601103
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $25,815
• Composite: 13.06/100
• National rank: #9564
• State rank: #499 of 540 in MI

Livability — Detroit

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #5427

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Detroit, MI
• City population: 572,865
• Population (ZIP): 26,925

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,675,273 people
• By 2030: 1,620,300 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 1,502,341 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 1,384,039 · -17.4%
• By 2075: 1,124,592 · -32.9%
• By 2100: 881,193 · -47.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 59% White 20% Black 17% Two or more races 16% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 44% Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Danish 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 39% English-only · Spanish 50% Arabic 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.0) · D 62.7% · R 33.7% · Other 3.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.5pp toward R · 2008: 49.5pp · 2024: 29.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.0 2020: D+38.1 2016: D+37.3 2012: D+46.9 2008: D+49.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.82%
• Current HPI: 299.5909
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-21.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Listed $55,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-21 Listed $55,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-17 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-17 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $50,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $50,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-11-25 Price Changed $60,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-11-24 Price Changed $60,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-10-22 Listed $70,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-10-22 Listed $70,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $708 · -35.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.